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It's pathetic that she only leads him by 2 points in her home state.
The problem Harris has is that she has no message other than flip-flopping on health care and busing. Progressives aren't buying what she's selling, and neither are folks who believe electability is key. What is gaining less media attention is that her numbers are falling, especially in New Hampshire where Mayor Pete now leads her; he's in 4th and she's in 5th.
Of course she does: who else would you expect to be ahead in the polls right now? Remember there is a long way still to go and the CA primaries are nowhere near the first ones. Usually the candidate or dates with the biggest lead when CA comes around will have the momentum and it certainly may not be her.
It's pathetic that she only leads him by 2 points in her home state.
Not really. As a Californian I can tell you that it's a big deal that Biden is not ahead by 10 points or more.
People who don't live here think California is a far left state. It isn't. There are pockets are far left progressives in some areas (Bay Area, parts of LA, the coast) but the majority of Democrats in the suburbs lean moderate. When Clinton beat Sanders she won all of the major population centers.
Progressive Dems are on the rise but the moderates still outnumber them.
The Clinton-Obama-Biden moderate wing has a strong loyal following in Calif. and they aren't necessarily going to go for Harris just because it's her home state.
I think we need to see the results from not only Iowa and NH but SC to see where they stand. If Harris has not won a state prior to CA I am not sure they will swing for her- it will be similar to Florida '16 in the R primary. Also if one of Warren or Sanders is clearly on the ropes I see their voters switching to the other.
I love a good horse race but it is all meaningless at this point.
If Harris can close or even take the front position it will allow her to go more to the middle on policy as well as present a consistent posture on issues. That would help her in the general election if she were the nominee. She could be a real threat if her surge continues.
As natural as it sounds for Harris to lead CA polling, to my knowledge she has only led Biden- since he announced- in polls from the last few days. Biden was ahead til this week (except for one poll from well before his was an official candidate).
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