Presidential election model that got it wrong once in 40 years predicts Trump 2020 win. (voters, Democrats)

[bobisinthehouse]

Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306.

I agree with Moody's result. President Donald Trump has gained so much respect from Americans since 2016, I do think he will win in the 2020 election.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartandhp

[jjbradleynyc]

Interesting.

I agree, that he will be re-elected, as well.

What's fascinating and impressive about Trump is his amazing resiliency in the face of high risk, consistent media and Democrat attacks, and serious large groups of people hoping he will fail.

His "non-DC-swamp" history and his successful business acumen have proven to be important reasons for his success. As-a-result, I think voters are wising up and will see past the Democrat and media BS, and focus on his results in office.

[animalcrazy]

As per the article "if the economy is strong and if turn out is low." That's a lot of uncertainty. If the Democrats take the Senate and keep the house Trump will be impeached if he wins again. If Trump is impeached before the election.... If Trump resigns with lets make a deal from Pence for a pardon because his crimes are catching up to him. There's a lot of if's in there.

[RevelateTransform]

Of course he will be reelected, unless something unforseen and dramatic happens between now and the election.

For now, circumstances are even more in Trump's favor than they were in 2016, where the democrats had an heir apparent candidate. What has changed so much since 2016 which would indicate a different outcome? Those who liked him in 2016, like him more now, and he now has the incumbent advantage. Democrats, meanwhile, don't have a particularly strong candidate to take him on. Hillary was much more popular than any of the current candidates.

Democrats cannot complain about the economy, because frankly, its on fire.

[NYCresident2014]

Originally Posted by RevelateTransform

Of course he will be reelected, unless something unforseen and dramatic happens between now and the election.

For now, circumstances are even more in Trump's favor than they were in 2016, where the democrats had an heir apparent candidate. What has changed so much since 2016 which would indicate a different outcome? Those who liked him in 2016, like him more now, and he now has the incumbent advantage. Democrats, meanwhile, don't have a particularly strong candidate to take him on. Hillary was much more popular than any of the current candidates.

Democrats cannot complain about the economy, because frankly, its on fire.

I think the only major risk is the economy, not because it's not doing well, but just because we are statistically due for a recession at some point in the next couple of years. If that recession happens to come around the same time as the election, then there is a risk.

Recessions are usually attributed to the person in office at the time of the recession, even though the sitting president during any recession has very little, if anything, to do with it.

Also, the UAW is working as hard as they can to create a recession, and the media is working as hard as they can to convince us that one has already arrived, so it's truly an uphill battle at the moment. Not that Trump has ever shied away from those

[Des-Lab]

I know a few rational people (what few there are in this forum) have repeatedly tried to point out that what you WANT to happen versus what you THINK will happen may be two very different things.....

And I'm still one of the few that is betting on Hillary jumping in.

[RevelateTransform]

Originally Posted by NYCresident2014

I think the only major risk is the economy, not because it's not doing well, but just because we are statistically due for a recession at some point in the next couple of years. If that recession happens to come around the same time as the election, then there is a risk.

Recessions are usually attributed to the person in office at the time of the recession, even though the sitting president during any recession has very little, if anything, to do with it.

Also, the UAW is working as hard as they can to create a recession, and the media is working as hard as they can to convince us that one has already arrived, so it's truly an uphill battle at the moment. Not that Trump has ever shied away from those

You're right. A major recession would certainly change these circumstances.


We may see a major China deal mid-2020 that will pop the market. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but certainly they have motivation to get this done before the election.

[James Bond 007]

Originally Posted by bobisinthehouse

Moody’s Analytics released the results of its 2020 prediction model on Tuesday showing Trump winning with 332 electoral votes, an increase over his 2016 win of 306.

I agree with Moody's result. President Donald Trump has gained so much respect from Americans since 2016, I do think he will win in the 2020 election.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartandhp

And the one time it did get the results wrong was ... 2016! Guess what? It got Trump's election wrong, and it'll probably get his reelection wrong.

[James Bond 007]

Also, from the link:

If the economy remains strong and voter turnout meets the historical average or is low, the model shows Trump winning handily. In the event that voter turnout hits its historical high, the Democratic candidate is expected to win a close race with 279 electoral votes, just over the 270 vote threshold.

IOW the prediction is incumbent on average or low turnout. No guarantee that will happen. This model here predicts high turnout - and a loss for Trump.

[RevelateTransform]

What you WANT to happen versus what you THINK will happen may be two very different things.....