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Most polling has shown Sanders ahead with Buttigieg in 2nd, with it being tight between 3rd and 5th between Biden, Klobuchar and Warren. Buttigieg had quite a bit of momentum after Iowa and Biden has dropped a bit. Buttigieg's momentum over the last couple days however has stalled a bit and Klobuchar has seen a bit of a surge following her strong debate performance in Iowa.
Currently RCP polling average has
Sanders 28.7
Buttigieg 21.3
Klobuchar 11.7
Biden and Warren tied 11.0
538 has Sanders with a 68% chance of winning the Primary and Buttigieg at 28% chance
They also show Sanders with a 75% chance of receiving the most delegates and Buttigieg a 38% chance of receiving the most delegates. This adds up to more than 100% due to the possibility of them both walking away with the same amount of delegates no matter who wins due to the proportional way the delegates are handed out
I'm wondering if the 538 poll with its rolling averages is simply not reflecting late movement. I have been wondering how many times Klobuchar had to outperform the others to get any movement. Considering she was barely qualifying to a couple of debates she had the most ground to make up.
It will also be interesting to see if undecided voters break in one direction or splinter.
ETA- its interesting to note that the three moderates are combining for 44-46 percent while the two truer liberals account for 38-39%. Bernie and Warren combined are also down considerably from when Bernie finished solo in 2016.
I'm wondering if the 538 poll with its rolling averages is simply not reflecting late movement. I have been wondering how many times Klobuchar had to outperform the others to get any movement. Considering she was barely qualifying to a couple of debates she had the most ground to make up.
It will also be interesting to see if undecided voters break in one direction or splinter.
ETA- its interesting to note that the three moderates are combining for 44-46 percent while the two truer liberals account for 38-39%. Bernie and Warren combined are also down considerably from when Bernie finished solo in 2016.
538 is showing a bump for Klobuchar as well, but not as big of a bump. RCP is just looking at the last 3 polls in their average, while 538 takes in many more polls, weights them by date, sample size, past history with that pollster, etc.
Until they talk about the real issues they can all dry on the vine.I don't need free stuff.How about real problems like Illegals and sanctuary cities or hand cuffing our Police from arresting criminals.All they talk about is free stuff and never raping me to pay for it.Trump 2020 if you have a brain.
Mayor Cheat has come under some close scrutiny. Besides being a phony, his lack of accomplishments will make it harder for him to win in a contest that can't be overtly fixed.
I'm voting and I'm trying to bully my libertarian friend to vote Bernie (high success chance since he doesn't care about politics)
The ones you should be bullying are the superdelegates that are planning to vote for Bloomberg... Sanders has it in the bag... The Democrats are going to cheat using superdelegates... Just you watch ..
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