Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
1. Trump will lose in November by a landslide Biden will win between 400-500 EC votes
2. Trump supporters will stop talking about him hardly see any post on social media about Trump anymore
3. Trump will face criminal charges possibly even face prison time
4. GOP will lose more seats in following elections as Trump backlash last for years on them.
5. Most progressive Federal government since FDR.
6. Democrats will end up in power for next 8 years possibly 10 one side of congress and the white house.
I am a left-leaning Independent (former dem), and I think it will depend on where the economy is at in November. The virus makes things very unpredictable.
Most people vote based on the economy. There are things they may like or dislike about a candidate, and might not even like them personally, but at the end of the day, the economy is the most prominent factor.
This is definitely the case for most elections. The swing factor in elections are the people who don't watch politics and vote by their pocketbooks.
Obama won re-election mainly because in 2012, the economy definitely rebounded. That's why Trump right now is getting on his cabinet to ensure the economy is restarted and to get people back to work. Because joblessness is a greater factor for people to vote against the sitting president than all the other social unrest issues.
I had thought that COVID19 would cause Trump to lose about 5-8% of voters but the recent protests may erased those. The real factor will be during October will there be another locked down or will the economy be shifting into higher gears.
I believe malls will open up and cities will be opened for business because Trump wants that to happen and it is starting now. He may put a lot of people into the hospitals this winter by opening up too quickly.
History tends to repeat itself. The OP is pointing out the potential for a repeat. It doesn't mean for sure it will happen, but some of the elements are there, and Biden's enthusiasm level amongst Dem voters is crazy low.
Joe Biden cannot fill Thousands of seats like Trump did last night. Many political analysts see voter enthusiasm to be closely correlated to turnout.
Some Democrats are not so certain Joe Biden wil beat Trump. The New York Times has been sounding the alarms for months now.
The conditions of 2016 and 2020 don't look anything alike, though. Trump is not running against someone as unpopular as Clinton was. There was no economic collapse, no pandemic, no civil unrest in 2016. Trump won the EC narrowly based on a few states even without all of that. To argue that 2020 will repeat is to both ignore all the current chaos, but also make the extremely unlikely claim that Trump has been able to not only maintain 100% of his 2016 voters, but managed to somehow expand it enough to counter all the down weights of this year from hell. That's an incredibly tall order.
As for rallies... honestly, who cares? Trump had huge rallies in 2016, but Clinton still easily won the popular vote despite a generally very low opinion of her across the board. The only reason Trump won at all at all was because he managed slim victories in a handful of crucial swing states that she ignored. Rallies are to keep his base, not to attract new voters.
You also seem to misunderstand why people are supporting Biden and why he has such a strong lead in the polling right now. Biden was not my first choice as a candidate. Or second. Or 3rd. That's true of many Democrats, liberals and independent voters. So in terms of candidate choice, there probably is a lack of enthusiasm for Biden, specifically. He does arguably have greater enthusiasm than Clinton did, though. However, I will *enthusiastically* support him with my vote in November because Trump is such a god awful clown and threat to the nation that I feel it is my patriotic duty to do everything I can to get him out of office. Even if Biden doesn't bring the enthusiasm himself, saving the country from Trump does. Trump supporters REALLY underestimate how much he's hated outside of the Fox News/OANN, Trump twitter feed bubble.
Now all that said, I would never claim Biden has a 100% chance of winning in November, but it's hard to ignore all the evidence that he's in a good position.
I found it interesting that Chris Christie was talking about Trump being the under dog in 2020 to day on Stephanopoulos's round table discussion. Even ardent supporter and friend Chris Christie admits Trump is in re-election trouble. That being said, we all know that Trump is in a better position to lie, cheat, and steal his way in. He will do anything, and I do mean anything legal or not to win.
If his pathetic turn out for his Covid rally in red Oklahoma is any indication? It looks like he has a big L on his forehead.
I know you can't face it now you have to face the fact soon enough that Trump is so done. He won in 2016 by less then 100k votes. He didn't face any of these problems Covid-19 is spiking again states are looking at shutting down again. Unemployment is highest since 1936 on top of all that we have racial protests this time it's different not going to blow over.
Trumps polling is in a tail spin now he is exceeding 10% losses in many states. This time Trump has to defend all of this in the debates where Biden has no record to defend. He was a VP but had little to do with policy unlike Clinton who did.
In a way if you compare it to the 2016 election Biden has become Trump of 2016. He can attack Trumps record handing the virus, impeachment, firing prosecutors.
I do not identify as a Democrat, but will be voting for Biden this year regardless of whether or not he appears to be in as good a position to win on Election Day as he does currently. My expectation is that Trump and his allies are going to exploit every opportunity to put his campaign ahead, everything from circulating false allegations to pushing for voting restrictions that impact Democratic leaning groups. The nation is going to need to have the collective willpower to avoid getting distracted by the inevitable sideshows from the White House, and it won't be easy.
The only thing that will save Trump's re-election is a vaccine before Election day.
I can certainly see Trump giving a press conference before Election Day that a vaccine is in place, thanks (of course) to his own expertise and leadership. What I have a harder time expecting is an immunity conferring vaccine that has successfully passed clinical trials, and is being manufactured, distributed and administered to a sizable number of Americans before November 3rd. There isn't really a lot of time left at this point.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
