Quote:
Originally Posted by ottomobeale
Net net, Im betting a black vote of around 10% for Trump in Nov. Maybe as high as 12%. Trump underpolls consistently. Then again losing by 76 points is not particularly great.
If it were 10% it would be 3% in CA and 12% in TX. Regional variation is intensifying.
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Yeah, I think you're right.
But for the most part it won't matter since so many of the states with high percentage of Black voters are red states. States like MS and AL, and LA are going to go to Trump anyway. Probably GA, too.
Could make a difference in some other states.
FWIW, Head-to-head, Obama had
44% support at this stage of his presidency; Trump has 47%.
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