Which counts more towards “enthusiasm” - a vote for or a vote against? Or do they count equally? (campaign, Democrats)

[hellopity]

As had been suggested by many here, Trump supporters who blindly echo the right wing media mantra of “enthusiasm gap” neglect to consider the possibility that motivations to vote against and motivations to vote for someone are equally important measures of enthusiasm.

Trump, a decidedly polarizing figure that even some of his most ardent supporters dislike on a personal level, inspires tremendous “negative enthusiasm” from the electorate. Here, 538 examines the effect of “voting against Trump” enthusiasm and demolishes the “enthusiasm gap” silver lining often cited by the Trump campaign:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...siasm-problem/

It seems it is Trump who has an enthusiasm problem.

[dspguy]

Trump won partially due to the motivation to vote against Clinton. It would be naive to believe that there isn't a "never Trump" movement within the country this time around.

With an October Surprise like no other and a hated candidate like not other (Clinton), Trump eked out a victory by the tiniest of margins in 3 states. Expecting a repeat of that is wishful thinking. I'm not saying Trump can't win. But, a lot went his way in the last week of the 2016 campaign against a candidate that enough independents despised to vote for Trump and enough Democrats despised to stay home.

I don't think Biden invokes that level of hatred.

[Storm King]

Originally Posted by dspguy

Trump won partially due to the motivation to vote against Clinton. It would be naive to believe that there isn't a "never Trump" movement within the country this time around.

With an October Surprise like no other and a hated candidate like not other (Clinton), Trump eked out a victory by the tiniest of margins in 3 states. Expecting a repeat of that is wishful thinking. I'm not saying Trump can't win. But, a lot went his way in the last week of the 2016 campaign against a candidate that enough independents despised to vote for Trump and enough Democrats despised to stay home.

I don't think Biden invokes that level of hatred.

It wasn't just those 3 states, that ignores the bigger picture. There were 2 other Midwestern states Obama won, Ohio (by 5 in 2008 and 3 in 2012) and Iowa (by 9 in 2008 and 5 in 2012). Trump won Ohio by 8 and Iowa by 9 in 2016. Yes, it was also MI,WI,PA but in 2 other Obama midwestern states 8 and 9 points is not a tiny margin.