Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
California of course was never in doubt, but I’m posting this for comparative purposes.
In 2016, Hillary beat Trump by 29.99% in California and came out of the state with a cushion of 4.3 million votes. Nationally, that was enough to win the national popular vote by 2.09%, or 2.9 million votes. Excluding CA, Trump carried the remaining 49 states + DC by about 1.4 million votes.
If Biden wins CA by anywhere near the 39% margin shown in this poll (Biden 67% Trump 28%), it would make Hillary’s 2016 win there seem like peanuts. It could equate to a 4% or 5% edge for Biden in the national popular vote just based upon California if you assumed status quo everywhere else.
All that means that Biden probably needs a cushion of at least 4% or more in the national popular vote to be reasonably confident in winning in the Electoral College.
Thanks for letting us know... and thank the good lord California (and New York) doesn't decide our President.
I do chuckle a bit every time I hear a Democrat say "but Hillary won the popular vote!"... I'm gonna start replying "yea, but Trump won the popular vote in the other 49 states."
P.S.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say there's enough liberals in Seattle to give the state to Biden... so add that one to the tally!
The national popular vote and the Electoral College have voted in sync, about 90% of the time, with the only exceptions being 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016, but we’ve never had a situation before where the country’s most populous state votes close to 2 to 1 for one party, without the other party being able to counter-balance that with another huge win in another huge state. Texas used to counter California, but the rise of the blue cities there have turned Texas to the point of nearly being competitive, so in terms of national popular vote, it’s hard to see Republicans winning that unless something drastically changes.
If it does not change, and the Democrats continue to have a lock on the national popular vote for an extended period of time, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans can hold their own, or even dominate in the Electoral College. If the Democrats win the pop vote in 2020, which seems a certainly because of the collapse of the R vote in California, it would mark the 7th time in the last 8 tries. Just as that is an historic first for the Democrats, continued success in the Electoral College while repeatedly losing the popular vote would be equally historic for the Republicans.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zach911
Thanks for letting us know... and thank the good lord California (and New York) doesn't decide our President.
I do chuckle a bit every time I hear a Democrat say "but Hillary won the popular vote!"... I'm gonna start replying "yea, but Trump won the popular vote in the other 49 states."
P.S.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say there's enough liberals in Seattle to give the state to Biden... so add that one to the tally!
once you start removing states(or Metro areas), you are just creating an arbitrary combination that suits you.
Clinton won the popular vote , point blank period.
California of course was never in doubt, but I’m posting this for comparative purposes.
In 2016, Hillary beat Trump by 29.99% in California and came out of the state with a cushion of 4.3 million votes. Nationally, that was enough to win the national popular vote by 2.09%, or 2.9 million votes. Excluding CA, Trump carried the remaining 49 states + DC by about 1.4 million votes.
If Biden wins CA by anywhere near the 39% margin shown in this poll (Biden 67% Trump 28%), it would make Hillary’s 2016 win there seem like peanuts. It could equate to a 4% or 5% edge for Biden in the national popular vote just based upon California if you assumed status quo everywhere else.
If it went exactly as you say, it wouldn't amount to anything. Winning CA by 30% or 40% doesn't change the Electoral College.
However, the bigger picture here is that the country tends to move together. Just like there was a last minute tilt to the right in 2016 for Trump, Biden's bigger polling lead in CA is in line with a bigger lead nationally... which requires more support in the other 49 states to make it happen.
It would be puzzling if Biden was up by LESS than Clinton's 2016 margin and somehow up MORE in places like FL, NC, PA, WI, MI and AZ. Then I'd say that there is a disconnect between polls and reality.
Now, I'm not saying saying CA is a bellwether state. Nothing could be further from the truth. But a bigger polling lead in CA is coinciding with bigger polling leads in other states. I would NOT expect Biden to enjoy more support in battleground states while having less support in places like NY and CA.
once you start removing states(or Metro areas), you are just creating an arbitrary combination that suits you.
Clinton won the popular vote , point blank period.
What they’re trying to tell you (without being explicit) is that rural America is far more important. In fact, they’re the only real Americans and the holders of the only opinions that should matter in this country.
Folks in Metro areas should be seen as the nation’s dead weight.
The national popular vote and the Electoral College have voted in sync, about 90% of the time, with the only exceptions being 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016, but we’ve never had a situation before where the country’s most populous state votes close to 2 to 1 for one party, without the other party being able to counter-balance that with another huge win in another huge state. Texas used to counter California, but the rise of the blue cities there have turned Texas to the point of nearly being competitive, so in terms of national popular vote, it’s hard to see Republicans winning that unless something drastically changes.
If it does not change, and the Democrats continue to have a lock on the national popular vote for an extended period of time, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans can hold their own, or even dominate in the Electoral College. If the Democrats win the pop vote in 2020, which seems a certainly because of the collapse of the R vote in California, it would mark the 7th time in the last 8 tries. Just as that is an historic first for the Democrats, continued success in the Electoral College while repeatedly losing the popular vote would be equally historic for the Republicans.
Liberals like to congregate together. There is A LOT of groupthink in the big cities of California, NY, and Illinois
If it went exactly as you say, it wouldn't amount to anything. Winning CA by 30% or 40% doesn't change the Electoral College.
However, the bigger picture here is that the country tends to move together. Just like there was a last minute tilt to the right in 2016 for Trump, Biden's bigger polling lead in CA is in line with a bigger lead nationally... which requires more support in the other 49 states to make it happen.
It would be puzzling if Biden was up by LESS than Clinton's 2016 margin and somehow up MORE in places like FL, NC, PA, WI, MI and AZ. Then I'd say that there is a disconnect between polls and reality.
Now, I'm not saying saying CA is a bellwether state. Nothing could be further from the truth. But a bigger polling lead in CA is coinciding with bigger polling leads in other states. I would NOT expect Biden to enjoy more support in battleground states while having less support in places like NY and CA.
California is a bellwether in a macro sense though relative to the fortunes of the Republican Party. Not too long ago, it was basically the National hub of Conservative Republicans. Very, very fertile ground. It was abuzz with Republican activism and the state’s Republicans were the nation’s most prominent members of the Party.
I’m flummoxed at how nowadays, the Republican Party can barely hold on in California. Lazy observers blame immigrants, but that’s not why California has flipped the way it has. If immigration was the cause, the reaction to it wouldn’t have been total capitulation. The reaction would’ve been to dig in and fight. What actually happened is Californians turning on the Republican Party because of the party’s extremism.
Liberals like to congregate together. There is A LOT of groupthink in the big cities of California, NY, and Illinois
Rural America is the capitol of Groupthink. Not much political diversity in Mississippi or Oklahoma. Same for Idaho or Wyoming.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
