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RCP recently debuted their no toss up maps, which is basically how they have the race today if the election were today and if the leader in the RCP average in each state actually won that state. Obviously a few caveats here, one being that state polling is less reliable than national polling, so some of them could be wrong, but nonetheless this provides a useful current barometer of how things are trending at the state level, which is of course how the election is actually counted.
Not much needs to be said here. It's pretty much a bloodbath for Trump at this point. Biden wins with 352 EV if these polls are right currently. Texas is on the tipping point as well and could flip blue if one or two more polls show him up there. Again, obviously in 2016, we saw 3 states go opposite what the RCP average had them as, but Biden's lead is so big right now, that he could afford to have as many as 4 to 5 states flip from the winner in the average right now and he could still be above 270.
Rs start with 1 guaranteed pickup and that is Alabama. The only reason AL currently has a D senator is because the GOP nominated the disgusting Roy Moore and that was beyond the pale even for ultra conservative voters there. That won't be the case this year as instead popular college football coach Tuberville is the R nominee, so Doug Jones is a dead man walking at this point. For the Ds, they are in a pretty solid position to pick up 3 seats, those being Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. The magnitude of the Dem lead in the NC race is something of a surprise but the R candidate has collapsed there recently even underperforming Trump's margin of support. Then there are 3 races that are more of a tossup, those being Montana, Maine, and Iowa. Right now the R looks favored to win in Montana and the D in the other 2, but just barely. The Ds would only need to win 1 of these remaining 3 if Biden wins, or 2 of 3 if Trump wins to get a majority.
As to the House, best guesses there range from R+10 to D+10 or anywhere in between, but ultimately that still leaves Ds in the majority.
Basically, any way you slice it right now, at 90 days out the Dems look favored to take both the presidency and the Senate while holding the House and have complete control of the federal government for the first time since 2008.
It might be hard for you to accept, but nothing in my post was fantasy, this is an objective look at the current outlook.
Yes, Joe Biden, who couldn't even get close when he was 45 and in his prime, is NOW going to win the presidency at nearly 80 and in the early stages of dementia.
He's going to become only the 4th person in the past 100 years to knock off an incumbent president, joining the ranks of Clinton, Reagan, and FDR.
Sometimes you have to look at the intangibles of a race and use your own common sense.
HAHA.
For example: How much would you bet on Joe Biden winning Ohio at this point?
You are free to do that in another thread. This thread is going to be data driven.
I know its popular for liberals to try to shut down debate nowadays. If you don't like people posting counter arguments to your threads, don't use a public forum and create your own echo chamber.
Yes, Joe Biden, who couldn't even get close when he was 45 and in his prime, is NOW going to win the presidency at nearly 80 and in the early stages of dementia.
Except, of course, that it is Trump who has dementia, not Biden.
For example: How much would you bet on Joe Biden winning Ohio at this point?
Trump needs to win Ohio and Biden does not. In the event Ohio votes for Biden, he would have locked down Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin already because of their consistently less Republican partisanship levels.
But rumor has it former Governor Kasich may come out to support Biden at the Democratic convention. That certainly wouldn't hurt Biden's chances in Ohio, even if ardent Trump supporters persist in alleging his dementia.
Trump needs to win Ohio and Biden does not. In the event Ohio votes for Biden, he would have locked down Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin already because of their consistently less Republican partisanship levels.
But rumor has it former Governor Kasich may come out to support Biden at the Democratic convention. That certainly wouldn't hurt Biden's chances in Ohio, even if ardent Trump supporters persist in alleging his dementia.
Haha, what planet do you live on?
Kasich did the same thing in 2016. he threw a hissy fit and didn't go to the convention that was in his own state. He didn't support Trump. Trump won Ohio by almost NINE points.
Did you forget?
Trump has MUCH more popularity in Ohio than Kasich.
Also one other tidbit: Ohio has picked the president every time since 1960, and has failed to side with the winner only twice since 1892.
This is a good point and highlights a change that is being seen across many states.
Yes, he won Ohio by 9 in 2016, it's basically a dead heat right now for 2020.
He won Texas by 9, basically a dead heat right now.
He won Montana by 21, his current lead there is 11.
Trump is currently way underperforming his 2016 margin in a lot of states, that's why he's behind at present.
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