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Keep in mind that Hillary only won Minnesota by 45k votes. The Iron Range has tens of thousands of residents (close enough to 100,000 per my basic calculations), of course some of them not voters. I say every vote will count.
But she won and will Biden be able to come out ahead? That is he question
trump got 10,000 more votes in the entire region more than Bush did in 2004. I would say this has more to do with Dems staying home and voting 3rd party than anything else.
Maybe slightly, but I do think outside of Duluth, some GOP trend has certainly taken place within the Iron Range. The same is true in other rural parts of the state. With that said, at the exact same time it is counter balanced by the suburbs becoming more Democratic.
Maybe slightly, but I do think outside of Duluth, some GOP trend has certainly taken place within the Iron Range. The same is true in other rural parts of the state. With that said, at the exact same time it is counter balanced by the suburbs becoming more Democratic.
I don't think anyone can say that there's been a GOP trend there, though. There's only been one presidential election since Obama was winning those counties by 20-35 points. Clinton still won them all, albeit by lower margins, but one point of data does not make a trend. Nor do 6 votes.
I don't think anyone can say that there's been a GOP trend there, though. There's only been one presidential election since Obama was winning those counties by 20-35 points. Clinton still won them all, albeit by lower margins, but one point of data does not make a trend. Nor do 6 votes.
Also looking at the 2018 data with the GOP picked up the 8th district (which granted covers more than just the Iron Range) and the margins with the exception of Cook County (which has become more Democratic) are closer than they were 10-20 years ago. Note, note saying the region has become Republican, but overall is not quite as Democratic as it use to be once you get outside of Duluth. However, it has little impact in making the state more Republican (which seemed to be alluded to earlier in the thread) because of the movement in the Democratic direction in the more heavily populated regions of the state.
In 2016, Minnesota cast 2.95 million votes overall for president. More than half of these votes were in just five large counties of the Twin Cities metro area - Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka and Washington. Small trends in the Twin Cities metro area (which also includes additional outlying counties) can impact the statewide outcome just as much as larger trends in a low population rural area such as the Iron Range.
That said, Trump could certainly win Minnesota - but it would require more than just turning out additional small town/rural voters. Sen. Klobuchar is likely the best advocate Biden can have for the state as she has carried many areas that voted for Trump.
Maybe slightly, but I do think outside of Duluth, some GOP trend has certainly taken place within the Iron Range. The same is true in other rural parts of the state. With that said, at the exact same time it is counter balanced by the suburbs becoming more Democratic.
Naw, Trump got less votes overall in the state than Bush did in 2004.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
Also looking at the 2018 data with the GOP picked up the 8th district (which granted covers more than just the Iron Range) and the margins with the exception of Cook County (which has become more Democratic) are closer than they were 10-20 years ago. Note, note saying the region has become Republican, but overall is not quite as Democratic as it use to be once you get outside of Duluth. However, it has little impact in making the state more Republican (which seemed to be alluded to earlier in the thread) because of the movement in the Democratic direction in the more heavily populated regions of the state.
Yes, but the margins are based on total vote.
Trump losing 29 - 60 with 11% independents instead of 29-71 isnt really an improvement on his part or the GOP's.
They are basically hopping for low Democratic turnout. I dont pretend 45,00 votes or so not showing up isnt possible. Im just saying I doubt it in this climate. Trump was hoping for a low turnout election, and I just dont think he is going to get it.
Naw, Trump got less votes overall in the state than Bush did in 2004.
Yes, but the margins are based on total vote.
Trump losing 29 - 60 with 11% independents instead of 29-71 isnt really an improvement on his part or the GOP's.
They are basically hopping for low Democratic turnout. I dont pretend 45,00 votes or so not showing up isnt possible. Im just saying I doubt it in this climate. Trump was hoping for a low turnout election, and I just dont think he is going to get it.
There won't be low DEM turn out Trump has motivated the Dems to vote. IMO it will be the GOP who will have a low turnout. Biden is counting on the minority, and younger generation to carry him.
There won't be low DEM turn out Trump has motivated the Dems to vote. IMO it will be the GOP who will have a low turnout. Biden is counting on the minority, and younger generation to carry him.
Clinton had lower turnout than Obama. Do you think Biden's turnout will exceed Clinton's?
If you believe polls, 2 of them have shown Biden's enthusism rate to be woefully low...way lower than Trumps.
Younger generation people do not turnout out to vote at high rates. Old people do.
Minorities will vote for Trump at a higher rate in 2020 than they did in 2016. The #walkaway movement willhave 1/2 million members by election day.
Independents have been scared away from Biden, and the Dems, due to the riots and their radical platform.
I'm not saying Biden can't win, but the groups you mention will not be the ones that make it happen for him.
There won't be low DEM turn out Trump has motivated the Dems to vote. IMO it will be the GOP who will have a low turnout. Biden is counting on the minority, and younger generation to carry him.
In Minnesota- he could get by simply on those 'suburban housewives' trending Dem. Those suburban 'housewives' sent Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith to DC in 2018. Klobuchar in particular had gaudy margins among the cohort. They also elected an African American Muslim with some dubious personal baggage to statewide office just to avoid giving and R a win. I do not see how a state that votes Keith Ellison swings to Donald Trump.
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