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2018
In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted that Republicans would win the generic ballot by 1 percentage point while the actual election results had Democrats winning by nearly 9 percentage points. This error of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot.[80] Rasmussen pushed back against critics after their widely derided[by whom?] miss, claiming that "the midterm result was relatively poor for Democrats compared to other midterms" despite the Democrats having scored a historic margin[81] in the popular vote. Rasmussen has not articulated any significant changes to their methodology after their significant miss in 2018.
Realistic numbers probably have Trump up a few points in reality
That is from last week. This one is newer:
In Florida and Pennsylvania, two key states President Trump narrowly won in 2016, one race is tight and the other gives former Vice President Joe Biden a clear lead, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the two states. In Florida, 48 percent of likely voters support Biden and 45 percent support Trump. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 52 - 44 percent.
These are the first surveys of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race in Florida and Pennsylvania by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidentia...ReleaseID=3672
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