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Old 09-04-2020, 07:24 AM
 
215 posts, read 47,355 times
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https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch...68423551414276

Not surprising. He will win by 3-4 points.

 
Old 09-04-2020, 07:38 AM
 
11,049 posts, read 4,482,326 times
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And now Biden only leads Florida by 1.8 in the RCP average.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6841.html

The last 2 men to win the General Election without Florida = Clinton 1992, JFK 1960.
Win Florida, and you are almost certain to win the General Election, based on history.

President Trump truly is the most brilliant man in the world, because despite the high unemployment rate, and despite being routinely blamed for the pandemic.....he's headed for reelection.
He is the symbol of American love.
America has fallen in love, and cannot get enough of him.
 
Old 09-04-2020, 07:43 AM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,183,094 times
Reputation: 7899
Another Trafalgar poll.

Why don't you make a prediction for the election? What will be Trump's EV count and popular vote?
 
Old 09-04-2020, 08:24 AM
 
5,311 posts, read 6,269,710 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot View Post
The last 2 men to win the General Election without Florida = Clinton 1992, JFK 1960.
Win Florida, and you are almost certain to win the General Election, based on history.
Times, population centers, and voting preferences have changed. While I suspect Trump needs Florida to win, Biden can win without it. In 2018, Arizona, NC, Wisconsin, Michigan, the Maine 2nd district, he Omaha based district in Nebraska), and Pennsylvania were all friendlier turfs for Dems. There are multiple iterations among those where Biden crosses the finish line without Florida.

This is now possible because Va, Nevada, and Colorado have turned reliably blue in the Presidential races.
 
Old 09-04-2020, 08:30 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
31,034 posts, read 19,620,981 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dialphone View Post
https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch...68423551414276

Not surprising. He will win by 3-4 points.
Florida is a must win for Trump an now looks to be trending to Trump winning handily given the shy Trump voters and enthusiasm gap between TRump supporters and Hiden Biden supporters.
 
Old 09-04-2020, 08:34 AM
 
5,936 posts, read 4,725,441 times
Reputation: 4633
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
Another Trafalgar poll.

Why don't you make a prediction for the election? What will be Trump's EV count and popular vote?
Trafalgar said Trump would win Nevada in 2016 by 5 points. He lost by 2. Just saying.
 
Old 09-04-2020, 09:00 AM
 
215 posts, read 47,355 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
Another Trafalgar poll.

Why don't you make a prediction for the election? What will be Trump's EV count and popular vote?
Trump will win Florida between 250,000-500,000 votes, I know that much


I think he wins 320 EV's
 
Old 09-04-2020, 09:01 AM
 
215 posts, read 47,355 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
Trafalgar said Trump would win Nevada in 2016 by 5 points. He lost by 2. Just saying.
Trafalgar wasnt the only poll wrong in Nevada. A whole bunch were and Trump was favored.

Nevada is a weird state to poll
 
Old 09-04-2020, 09:03 AM
 
344 posts, read 127,509 times
Reputation: 256
Trump wants to end the payroll tax which funds social security. I doubt that will fly with the seniors in Florida.
 
Old 09-04-2020, 09:03 AM
 
215 posts, read 47,355 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
Times, population centers, and voting preferences have changed. While I suspect Trump needs Florida to win, Biden can win without it. In 2018, Arizona, NC, Wisconsin, Michigan, the Maine 2nd district, he Omaha based district in Nebraska), and Pennsylvania were all friendlier turfs for Dems. There are multiple iterations among those where Biden crosses the finish line without Florida.

This is now possible because Va, Nevada, and Colorado have turned reliably blue in the Presidential races.
Trump won last time without needing Florida
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