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Ive been saying for awhile on this site that GA is going blue. Newt Gingrichs old House seat went from +20% GOP to blue in just 2 election cycles. Again, look at the AJC poll: in 2018, Brian Kemp won Georgia by 1.2% while winning whites by 48%. This poll has that lead around 38%.
Kemp was a bit of a flawed candidate though. He probably lost from votes from the Massage Envy scandal but that may have been offset by his clear voter suppression laws (75% of voters removed from the voter rolls were minorities).
I don't know if I'd go so far as to say that Georgia is in play because Kemp only won by a tiny margin. I think Trump is a far more flawed candidate than Kemp but Trump doesn't lose voters because of his flaws. I will say Georgia is in play because Trump only won Georgia by 5.1 points in 2016. That was back when he was the "take a chance on me" candidate.
2016: Trump +5
2012: Romney +8
2008: McCain +6
2004: Bush +16
2000: Bush +11
1996: 3 way race, can't relate
1992: 3 way race, Democrat won by 1
1988: Bush +20
The state is moving left. No wonder Kemp is leveraging voter suppression to keep it from moving further. RCP has Georgia at Trump +1.3. 538 has Georgia at Trump +1.8. The state is in play. Both are within the margin of error (yes, the margin of error can be in a Democrat's favor). Biden should make some ad buys and send Harris there. Force Trump to expend his resources there. Keep him out of WI, MI and PA where the race is actually decided.
People have to realize in GA that if the libs decide to burn and loot their state and Biden is POTUS that they will be alone with no offer of help offered like the offer of help that Trump has offered the other loser states that can't control the crime in their states (yes, burning and looting is a crime) and been turned down as they only wanted Trump's help before it was offered, not after it was offered. FOOLS!
The state is moving left. No wonder Kemp is leveraging voter suppression to keep it from moving further. RCP has Georgia at Trump +1.3. 538 has Georgia at Trump +1.8. The state is in play. Both are within the margin of error (yes, the margin of error can be in a Democrat's favor). Biden should make some ad buys and send Harris there. Force Trump to expend his resources there. Keep him out of WI, MI and PA where the race is actually decided.
I would say GA is moving Dem not necessarily left. A lot of the African Americans and suburban women fueling the trend towards it being purple are not necessary liberal or that far left. It will be interesting to see if Biden throughs some money and an appearance by him or Harris at it. They need to make gains this year because I think a non-Trump R probably picks up 2-3 points in 2024. By 2028 it could be then new Ohio.
If he's got the money, go ahead. Force Trump to defend Georgia.
Bloomberg just through $600 million at Florida, so it would be a smart play to make Trump spend money where he doesn't want to. Georgia has alot of suburban Moms that are from north of the Mason Dixon line....that's your play.
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