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Old 10-06-2020, 09:40 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 303,075 times
Reputation: 277

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongStreet View Post
What data? Care to share it?

You flip-flop over polls on this forum every day. Biden is looking very strong in PA, those are his bread & butter voters plus the massive hatred and distrust of the failed Trump presidency is a potent combo.

The fact that Trump is struggling in some reliably red states should really have your focus. Clinton wasn't even close in GA, SC, TX, or AZ last time.
Hillary was tied in SC and you guys went gaga over it.

There was talk of Hillary winning Texas and SC, plus Georgia and AZ

 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:42 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 303,075 times
Reputation: 277
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
I'd rather be Biden supporter and looking at actual numbers than theorizing over Trump.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...94604424130573
Trump improved by 3 points in the latest Trafalgar poll

Oh yeah, only poll that showed Trump winning.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCah...19165256642562
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:43 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 303,075 times
Reputation: 277
Why would anyone want to be a Biden supporter still thinking polls matter when they can't reach rural voters or oversample dems.

You guys are in for a bad evening on election night
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:47 AM
 
5,311 posts, read 6,269,710 times
Reputation: 3136
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/statu...992064001?s=19

Yikes.....I'd rather be seeing what is now a running stream of polls favoring Biden in PA than rationalizing twitter feeds, Bumper stickers and flags for Trump.
Good lord- if Biden actually wins white voters (even if they are Northern white voters in his native state) this election will be a massacre.

The big tell from those numbers is that Biden did not eat into Trumps support, he was picking up the undecides. The other big issue everyone seems to ignore is that Biden could flip Pa entirely on the basis of AA voters in Philly returning to 2012 voting levels. Or by continuing D games in the suburbs from the last few years. Or by increased youth voting. Or by making inroads with seniors. Basically he has a half dozen paths. Trumps main hope is another low turnout election with an outsize turnout of white, non-college educated 30-60 year old males. It can happen but its threading a lot of needles.
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,817 posts, read 2,761,970 times
Reputation: 3388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenpastures23 View Post
Trump improved by 3 points in the latest Trafalgar poll

Oh yeah, only poll that showed Trump winning.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCah...19165256642562
Pre-debate poll.....the election is breaking towards Biden as we speak. Same happened in 2008 with Obama with the Financial meltdown during the last 30 days before the election. We are in a multi-front crisis right now and Trump is a clown that will take this country down.

Fed Chairman Powell did not do Trump any favors today.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...-economic.html

Quote:
We should continue do what we can to manage downside risks to the outlook. One such risk is that COVID-19 cases might again rise to levels that more significantly limit economic activity, not to mention the tragic effects on lives and well-being. Managing this risk as the expansion continues will require following medical experts' guidance, including using masks and social-distancing measures.

A second risk is that a prolonged slowing in the pace of improvement over time could trigger typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on weakness. A long period of unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy. That would be tragic, especially in light of our country's progress on these issues in the years leading up to the pandemic.
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:48 AM
 
5,311 posts, read 6,269,710 times
Reputation: 3136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenpastures23 View Post
Why would anyone want to be a Biden supporter still thinking polls matter when they can't reach rural voters or oversample dems.

You guys are in for a bad evening on election night
I think you are missing the important demographic in 2020- its nor the urban voters who go Dem or the rural ones who trend R. This election goes right through the suburbs and those are the exact voters who are easiest to reach.
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Florida
1,049 posts, read 971,749 times
Reputation: 940
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenpastures23 View Post
Hillary was tied in SC and you guys went gaga over it.

There was talk of Hillary winning Texas and SC, plus Georgia and AZ
Completely made-up - Hillary was not leading Trump this close to the election in GA. She had led very early for a while and then Trump ran away with it.

South Carolina, again, she was never tied. She had it within a few points early on and again Trump ran away with it by October.

Nobody ever seriously considered Hillary would be close in TX, another figment of your imagination.
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:50 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 303,075 times
Reputation: 277
200k in PA went out of their way to register republican.
Joe can get all the suburban Philly mom's he wants but it will not offset the landslide loss he will experience in the rest of the state
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:51 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 303,075 times
Reputation: 277
Quote:
Originally Posted by WrongStreet View Post
Completely made-up - Hillary was not leading Trump this close to the election in GA. She had led very early for a while and then Trump ran away with it.

South Carolina, again, she was never tied. She had it within a few points early on and again Trump ran away with it by October.

Nobody ever seriously considered Hillary would be close in TX, another figment of your imagination.
Hillary was tied in SC. Dems thought they had a great chance in Georgia and possibly Texas
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,817 posts, read 2,761,970 times
Reputation: 3388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenpastures23 View Post
200k in PA went out of their way to register republican.
Joe can get all the suburban Philly mom's he wants but it will not offset the landslide loss he will experience in the rest of the state
How many of those 200k voted Trump in 2016 anyway? That is not a NET gain.
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