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I see Biden talking about agenda. I see Trump mostly talking about why Democrats are bad.
Incumbents run on their record. If Trump's record is that good, he'd spend more time talking about that than talking about Biden. Trump spent little-to-no time at the debate last week talking about what he will do if given a second term. For years, literally years, he's said he has a healthcare plan ready to go and we've heard nothing about it. Just as recently as this Summer there was going to be a healthcare plan released in "a few weeks." We are now in the Fall. Where is it?
I'd rather be a Biden supporter looking at good polls including the swing states than be a Trump supporter listening to right wing media making things up right now. - But what about 2016??? that was 4 years ago and in the past. A funny thing with 2016 is that most of the poling was correct especially at the national level, the problem was they had a dearth of low quality polling coming out of the swings states that usually went blue. And that was a polling miss of the ages. There is not a dearth of low quality polls coming out of swing states this cycle. Enthusiasm to just vote is the highest it's ever been on both sides. The election is happening now. Keep track of this link, it tracks early voting which is advantage Democrat
Quote:
Voters have cast a total of 4,191,908 ballots in the reporting states.
Internal pollsters will never get a job again if they don’t do a good job. Public polls are for propaganda. Quinnipiac, Monmouth and others are still in business after abysmal results since 2012.
When the polls were wrong.
1948 Dewey +5
Truman won by 4.5
1952 Eisenhower +2
Eisenhower won by 11
1960 Kennedy +2
Kennedy won by 0.1
1976 Ford +1
Carter won by 2
1980 Carter +10, Carter +2, & Reagan +3
Reagan won by 9.7
1992 Clinton +12
Clinton won by 5.6
When the polls were wrong.
1948 Dewey +5
Truman won by 4.5
1952 Eisenhower +2
Eisenhower won by 11
1960 Kennedy +2
Kennedy won by 0.1
1976 Ford +1
Carter won by 2
1980 Carter +10, Carter +2, & Reagan +3
Reagan won by 9.7
1992 Clinton +12
Clinton won by 5.6
Several of those were within the margin of error (1960, 1976). Both 1980 and 1992 had strong third party candidates that complicated matters. But even in 1980 the polls taken in late October showed Reagan winning the election but just not by as a big a margin as he eventually got.
They don't. Its quite odd lately the polls AREN'T showing WHO they are polling AT ALL...some are but most aren't. It's hard to find the breakdown because the people are onto their BS.
I have been pointing this out for months! And often when they do they try and convalute the break down with "heavily lean 'party'", slightly lead party etc...up to 3 and 4 breakout of support per party. But many don't list the methadology at all.
I was called all kinds of names, told I didn't know what I was talking about, I didn't understand the Einstein-est math behind the weighting etc...when I pointed out the over sampling of Democrats, grossly in many polls. I was convinced in 2016 Trump would win based on what I perceived (and believe I was right) was the deliberate distortion of the Polls and the sheer lack of enthusiasm for Clinton.
I am equally as sure this time around for basically the same reasons. But in many cases it's hard to see the distortion in the polls because they hide the data. But that only can lead to one question and one conclusion, what do you have to hide?
What would be the motive to falsify a poll? If the polls say Biden is up 20% in my state, I might think we got this in the bag and decide to stay home. If the poll said Biden is losing by 2 points you bet I’m going to vote and see if I can help flip it the other way.
When the polls were wrong.
1948 Dewey +5
Truman won by 4.5
1952 Eisenhower +2
Eisenhower won by 11
1960 Kennedy +2
Kennedy won by 0.1
1976 Ford +1
Carter won by 2
1980 Carter +10, Carter +2, & Reagan +3
Reagan won by 9.7
1992 Clinton +12
Clinton won by 5.6
As I have said before, polls are never wrong. They simply report what a relatively small sample of people said they will do. What’s wrong is to project the results of that small sample onto the population as a whole.
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