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Accordingly, our model is slightly more bearish than others on Mr Biden’s position in national polls. Whereas the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight.com, a data-journalism website, give Mr Biden a lead of nearly 11 percentage points nationwide, our model puts him nine points ahead. Still, even after giving the president a relative boost in the averages, our election model assigns Mr Trump only a one-in-ten chance of winning the election. It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it.
538 is doing something similar, they show Biden with over 10.5% national lead but if you look at their projected popular vote they have it coming in at 8%.
Our *forecast* of the popular vote is Biden +8.2. That's mostly based on state rather than national polls. And it still prices in a tiny bit of tightening/mean reversion.
Some things just shouldn't be. Let the numbers be what they are -- good or bad. This is another reason why I -- and many others -- no longer believe in any validity when it comes to polls.
Some things just shouldn't be. Let the numbers be what they are -- good or bad. This is another reason why I -- and many others -- no longer believe in any validity when it comes to polls.
It’s kind of sad to me because you and many others have chosen cynicism over understanding how polling works. Polls are quite accurate if you understand how probabilities work.
Obviously not much they can do If they can't reach rural voters-Shy Trump vote
Again, people who say things like that haven’t taken any time to understand how polls work and prefer to take the route of cynicism instead. Sad....and intellectually lazy.
I think Shy Trump voters are more or less a myth or greatly overblown.
The fixation on them is due to an overreaction of 2016 when a narrow polling lead was vastly misinterpreted and the fact the media personalities live in a generally democratic bubble.
In highly educated professional circles in Manhattan and DC there probably are Shy Trump voters since they’re in such a stark minority. This is true even for Conservative columnists. Those don’t exist in say Central Wisconsin where being a Trump supporter is not socially stigmatized because like everyone does it.
It’s kind of sad to me because you and many others have chosen cynicism over understanding how polling works. Polls are quite accurate if you understand how probabilities work.
You underestimate me. I fully understand how they work and cynicism has nothing to do with it, but go ahead and accuse. As to their accuracy...that's your opinion.
As I've said so many times, polls mean nothing. People are foolhardy to even pay attention to those things. I don't. Most of them are manipulative and simply designed to sway public opinion. My mind's made up who my vote goes to whenever I head to the precincts.
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