The states that will decide it (vote, democrat, Republican, polls)

[MESSENGERTOASCHERON]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...lection-429160

Most are essentially identical to democrat leads polled in 2016

Trump will surprise everyone in the end, provided all who have an interest go out and vote!

The media has tried to sway the election by not reporting ANYTHING said or done by President Trump fairly or objectively. All, except Fox and newsmax essentially, are 24 hour trump hate machines. Time to throw it all in the face of them and the Hollywood elites who think they can tell us all how to live our lives.

[brennan2323]

I'm not going to go through state by state so I took Minnesota as an example. The average spread among many polls has Biden up by 9 points. That is well outside of the margin of error. I think you'll find the same thing among many of the battleground states. Fact of the matter is that Trump is having to spend precious time holding rallies in states that should not be battleground states, i.e. Georgia. He is not going to win the election...sorry.

[MESSENGERTOASCHERON]

Originally Posted by brennan2323

I'm not going to go through state by state so I took Minnesota as an example. The average spread among many polls has Biden up by 9 points. That is well outside of the margin of error. I think you'll find the same thing among many of the battleground states. Fact of the matter is that Trump is having to spend precious time holding rallies in states that should not be battleground states, i.e. Georgia. He is not going to win the election...sorry.

5 of these 8 states are formerly democrat strongholds.

[brennan2323]

Originally Posted by MESSENGERTOASCHERON

As is Biden. They're focusing hard on PA, WI, MI, which should not be battlegrounds for them, either.

Umm, not sure how to tell you this, but Trump won all of those states in 2016 so technically they would be battleground states this election.

[dspguy]

First number is current RCP average for that state. Second is 2016 final poll. Third number is actual results. Last is adjusting 2020 polls by that amount.

AZ: Biden at +2.7. Trump +4.0 in 2016 polls. Trump -0.5 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden +3.2 (2.7 + 0.5)
FL: Biden +2.9. Trump +0.2 in 2016 polls. Trump +1.2 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden +1.9
GA: Trump +0.1. Trump +4.8 in 2016 polls. Trump +5.1 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Trump +0.4
MI: Biden +7.2. Clinton +3.4 in 2016 polls. Trump +0.3 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden + 3.5
NC: Biden +3.3. Trump +1.0 in 2016 polls. Trump +3.7 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden +0.6
NV: Biden +5.2. Trump 0.8 in 2016 polls. Clinton +2.4 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden +8.4
PA: Biden +7.0. Clinton +1.9 in 2016 polls. Trump +0.7 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Biden +4.8
WI: Biden +6.3. Clinton +6.5 in 2016 polls. Trump +0.7 in 2016 voting. Adjusted 2020: Trump +1.1

So, in this exercise spurred on by the article posted by the OP, we've gifted Trump the same polling errors from 2016. Polling errors work both ways. However, for fun, we've just given Trump every polling error he received in 2016. This did include one battleground state, Nevada, where Trump looked like he would win and Clinton did instead.

What would this map look like, given that we've already gifted Trump these polling errors?

Something like this:

Spoiler

Now, what if we gave Trump ANOTHER 2.2 points of polling error nationally. So, instead of polls being off nationally by just 1.1 points like in 2016, we give him 2.2 points after all those adjustments up there that favor Trump. What does THAT look like?

Spoiler

In that last case, Trump could possibly get a state like Arizona to overturn the will of the people and maybe have the Republican Governor, state Senate and State House simply allocate Electors to him, and he'd be at 270.

As of this moment right now, Trump needs the same polling errors as last time to all be in his favor again and then another 2.2 points on top of that and then maybe get a state that went for Biden to override Electors to benefit him.

[MESSENGERTOASCHERON]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZOw5Ol2Blo

[bmccormick71]

This is one of the reasons I don’t like watching election night coverage. I can find out the next day who Florida or Michigan has picked for us.

Something is wrong with election after election a handful of counties in a handful of states decide for all of us. I guess I have to move to Michigan for my vote to matter.

[MESSENGERTOASCHERON]

Originally Posted by bmccormick71

This is one of the reasons I don’t like watching election night coverage. I can find out the next day who Florida or Michigan has picked for us.

Something is wrong with election after election a handful of counties in a handful of states decide for all of us. I guess I have to move to Michigan for my vote to matter.

Thats funny...


What the left fails to appreciate, is that Michigan is now a swing state.

[WrongStreet]

Originally Posted by dspguy

In that last case, Trump could possibly get a state like Arizona to overturn the will of the people and maybe have the Republican Governor, state Senate and State House simply allocate Electors to him, and he'd be at 270.

How likely would a scenario like this be? Seems like doing this could open up a can of worms that just isn't worth it.

[DKM]

Originally Posted by MESSENGERTOASCHERON

Thats funny...


What the left fails to appreciate, is that Michigan is now a swing state.

Something the right fails to appreciate, is that Arizona is now a swing state.