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At the beginning of September 538 gave Trump a 70% chance to win GA.
That has fallen to 49%.
538 gave Hillary a 70% chance to win the election the day before. Don't look at 538 if you want any meaningful analysis. Nate Silver doesn't even know any Republicans and doesn't think any read him.
Georgia is now a toss-up. That's awful news for Trump. If a Republican can't even count on winning GA they're really in trouble. He now has only a 13% chance of winning with only 3 weeks before the election, which almost insurmountable. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ecast/georgia/
Lol no it isn't. Atlanta is the only anti american area of Georgia the rest is pure red.
Lol no it isn't. Atlanta is the only anti american area of Georgia the rest is pure red.
You seem to believe there's no way Biden can win GA, let me school you on a few things. The Atlanta Metro includes Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Dekalb, Rockdale, Douglas, Fayette, Henry, Clayton and Cherokee Counties. these areas has the highest percentage of eligible voters. GA has a total eligible voter population of ~ 7 million. GA usually has a turn out of about 4 million voters, in 2016, Trump got 50% Hillary 45%. With the amount of early voting I see, this year might break records on voter turnout. The metro area alone has 3.1 million of those eligible voters and there are other outlying counties that do vote blue such as Chatham, Liberty, Burke etc. This is going to be a fight this year, not saying Biden will win but he has a good chance.
Exactly. Even if he ends up winning it, that Biden is competitive there is awful news for Trump.
Doesn't make a darn bit of difference as long as he wins. Why would you say it is awful news for Trump? If he wins he wins and it isn't like he will be running again?
Clinton was never favored in NC, Arizona, or Georgia. And she was not outside the margin of error in Pa or MI this close to the election.
I will note that 538 did move the odds back to 50/50 by the time the article published and literally called that 7 pt poll into question. However that race is so tight that one errant 7 point poll could move the average in the Dems favor. The Georgia race is probably going to turn on voter turnout itself at this point. If Abrams can come within 2 you would think a older, more moderate, more openly religious (and yes white) candidate would have a chance in the state. That said- I'm not buying this as a flip until I see the election results say so. I can see Arizona or NC flipping since there are current D candidates who won statewide in the last 4 years. Ga offers no such example.
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