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Trafalgar is much worse than most other pollsters -- you are giving them too much credit.
They did better than everyone else on the swing states in the RCP average. You are just regurgitating mindless MSM talking points.
Wisconsin-Biden +1 others Biden +7 Actual Biden +0.7 (remember ABC Biden +17!!!)
Michigan-Trump +2 others Biden +6 Actual Biden +2.7
Pennsylvania Trump +2 others Biden +2 Actual Biden +0.9---but he also predicted Biden would win PA
Florida Trump +2 others Biden +1 Actual Trump +3.3
North Carolina Trump +2 others = Actual Trump +1.3
Y'all also like to call Rasmussen garbage. Their last poll had Biden +1. The RCP average was 7.2
Actual looks like it will be around 3, so they beat the average.
You people just mindlessly trash any poll that doesn't tell you what you want to hear.
They did better than everyone else on the swing states in the RCP average. You are just regurgitating mindless MSM talking points.
Wisconsin-Biden +1 others Biden +7 Actual Biden +0.7 (remember ABC Biden +17!!!)
Michigan-Trump +2 others Biden +6 Actual Biden +2.7
Pennsylvania Trump +2 others Biden +2 Actual Biden +0.9---but he also predicted Biden would win PA
Florida Trump +2 others Biden +1 Actual Trump +3.3
North Carolina Trump +2 others = Actual Trump +1.3
Y'all also like to call Rasmussen garbage. Their last poll had Biden +1. The RCP average was 7.2
Actual looks like it will be around 3, so they beat the average.
You people just mindlessly trash any poll that doesn't tell you what you want to hear.
1. So Trafalgar outperformed the RCP average in Wisconsin and Florida? That's it? How is that a defense of Trafalgar? You also left out Arizona, where Trafalgar had Trump +3, the RCP average was Biden +.9 and the actual was Biden +.3. And in Georgia, Trafalgar had Trump +5, RCP was Trump +1 and actual was Biden +.3. Maybe you should stop cherry-picking data.
2. Actual popular vote spread will likely be around 4-5%, not 3%. It's at 3.5% and growing right now.
Rasmussen will be off by around 4%, and they had Trump up in 7% in the national popular vote as late as October in 2016. Rasmussen is garbage, and there's a reason they are widely discredited by professionals.
3. In nearly every post, you say I am just repeating talking points. I have no idea where this is coming from. There has been very little coverage of Trafalgar in mainstream media sources, so it hardly seems possible that I'm just repeating MSM points.
They did better than everyone else on the swing states in the RCP average. You are just regurgitating mindless MSM talking points.
Wisconsin-Biden +1 others Biden +7 Actual Biden +0.7 (remember ABC Biden +17!!!)
Michigan-Trump +2 others Biden +6 Actual Biden +2.7
Pennsylvania Trump +2 others Biden +2 Actual Biden +0.9---but he also predicted Biden would win PA
Florida Trump +2 others Biden +1 Actual Trump +3.3
North Carolina Trump +2 others = Actual Trump +1.3
Y'all also like to call Rasmussen garbage. Their last poll had Biden +1. The RCP average was 7.2
Actual looks like it will be around 3, so they beat the average.
You people just mindlessly trash any poll that doesn't tell you what you want to hear.
When all votes are in, it is looking like Biden will lead Trump by about 4% in the popular vote.
Trafalger And USC Dornslife were in a shared interview a few weeks ago. Trafalger was holding to both a Trump win and popular vote lead because of all the hidden voters he could not quantify. Big miss. USC Dornslife actually hit the nail on the head- that guy said there was a hidden well but it could only bring Biden's lead to the down to the 5 point range and he could still squeak out individual states at that level. Right now Biden's at 4% with a couple of million votes to go.
So next go round I'm going straight to the USC group to see where we likely stand.
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"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 18 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,552 posts, read 16,531,868 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost
1. So Trafalgar outperformed the RCP average in Wisconsin and Florida? That's it? How is that a defense of Trafalgar? You also left out Arizona, where Trafalgar had Trump +3, the RCP average was Biden +.9 and the actual was Biden +.3. And in Georgia, Trafalgar had Trump +5, RCP was Trump +1 and actual was Biden +.3. Maybe you should stop cherry-picking data.
2. Actual popular vote spread will likely be around 4-5%, not 3%. It's at 3.5% and growing right now.
Rasmussen will be off by around 4%, and they had Trump up in 7% in the national popular vote as late as October in 2016. Rasmussen is garbage, and there's a reason they are widely discredited by professionals.
3. In nearly every post, you say I am just repeating talking points. I have no idea where this is coming from. There has been very little coverage of Trafalgar in mainstream media sources, so it hardly seems possible that I'm just repeating MSM points.
i guess ill be the liberal who defends Rasmussen, LOL
They arent all that bad, they just refuse to admit they were wrong, their time line goes a little like this.
2008, 1 point off, pretended like they were kings of the world
2010, 8 points off in favor of R's , but since R's won in a landslide, they pretend they got everything right.
2012, Romney 49 Obama 48, admits it needs to improve, but blames it on bad data, rather than a bad method.
i guess ill be the liberal who defends Rasmussen, LOL
They arent all that bad, they just refuse to admit they were wrong, their time line goes a little like this.
2008, 1 point off, pretended like they were kings of the world
2010, 8 points off in favor of R's , but since R's won in a landslide, they pretend they got everything right.
2012, Romney 49 Obama 48, admits it needs to improve, but blames it on bad data, rather than a bad method.
These pollsters are being paid by the RNC incentive is to favor Republicans so people will keep donating money when they see the polls looking good. It's all about making money in the end.
i guess ill be the liberal who defends Rasmussen, LOL
They arent all that bad, they just refuse to admit they were wrong, their time line goes a little like this.
2008, 1 point off, pretended like they were kings of the world
2010, 8 points off in favor of R's , but since R's won in a landslide, they pretend they got everything right.
2012, Romney 49 Obama 48, admits it needs to improve, but blames it on bad data, rather than a bad method.
The issue with 2016 is that they had Trump +7 in October. The race didn't shift by 8 points in three weeks.
Rasmussen's methodology is bad, and that's why they are a bad pollster. Even if they had been spot-on in 2012, 2016 and 2020, I would believe they were a bad pollster. Three elections is a small sample size. Being right or close to right three times is not proof of a good methodology.
These pollsters are being paid by the RNC incentive is to favor Republicans so people will keep donating money when they see the polls looking good. It's all about making money in the end.
You really don't have much of a grip on reality, do you?
You probably think all those polls showing Biden +8 to 10 were right and the Russians hacked the election to make it only 3.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 18 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,552 posts, read 16,531,868 times
Reputation: 6031
Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2
You really don't have much of a grip on reality, do you?
You probably think all those polls showing Biden +8 to 10 were right and the Russians hacked the election to make it only 3.
Trafalgar was off by more than you claim though. As I said in my post, they are actually already off by 6 or 7 in some cases because they had biden losing like 43-44 in some cases when it was closer to 49-48
You dont get to say they were one point off just because Biden won by 1 point, they got the totals absolutely wrong too, far more than any of the other pollsters.
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