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Trump's favorite poll which predicted his victory in 2016 has just come out and Biden widens his lead to 6.4% over Trump. The increase attributed to 2nd debate performances.
If this kind of right leaning poll continues then Trump is in for a big defeat. We are only 9 days out from the end of this election cycle.
But that is a national poll, and national polls hold no relevance to the electoral college.
We don't know how many people of each state were part of the national poll, and if New York and California voters were the reason for most of Biden's support within that national poll etc.
The odds are whoever wins Florida will win the general election, because only 3 men have won the general election without winning Florida since 1924.
And the early voting shows Republicans are wiping off the early voting deficit each day-
10/20 = D+ 479k
10/21 = D+ 469k
10/22 = D+ 428k
10/23 = D+ 389k
10/24 = D+ 364k
You can decide for yourself how much Democrats need to lead by heading into election day, but it doesn't look good for Democrats if that pattern continues.
In fact some have said even the current margin is not great for Democrats.
But that is a national poll, and national polls hold no relevance to the electoral college.
We don't know how many people of each state were part of the national poll, and if New York and California voters were the reason for most of Biden's support within that national poll etc.
The odds are whoever wins Florida will win the general election, because only 3 men have won the general election without winning Florida since 1924.
And the early voting shows Republicans are wiping off the early voting deficit each day-
10/20 = D+ 479k
10/21 = D+ 469k
10/22 = D+ 428k
10/23 = D+ 389k
10/24 = D+ 364k
You can decide for yourself how much Democrats need to lead by heading into election day, but it doesn't look good for Democrats if that pattern continues.
In fact some have said even the current margin is not great for Democrats.
I think you're forgetting the non-affiliated voters. Rep vs Dem is going to be roughly equal and maybe it will be a roughly equal amount voting outside of their party... the huge wildcard is the independents.
I think you're forgetting the non-affiliated voters. Rep vs Dem is going to be roughly equal and maybe it will be a roughly equal amount voting outside of their party... the huge wildcard is the independents.
It doesn't look equal if Democrats fail to keep that lead above 300k heading into election day.
Most Republicans are voting on election day, now more than ever.
Plus Republicans increased their voter registrations a lot since 2016, as Republicans have gone door-knocking when Democrats have not this year.
There are still more people registered as Democrats than Republicans in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have been gaining ground. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/voter-r...es-narrow-gap/
It doesn't look equal if Democrats fail to keep that lead above 300k heading into election day.
Most Republicans are voting on election day, now more than ever. Plus Republicans increased their voter registrations a lot since 2016, as Republicans have gone door-knocking when Democrats have not this year.
Yeah, I've noticed the MSM doesn't particularly like mentioning that.
But that is a national poll, and national polls hold no relevance to the electoral college.
We don't know how many people of each state were part of the national poll, and if New York and California voters were the reason for most of Biden's support within that national poll etc.
The odds are whoever wins Florida will win the general election, because only 3 men have won the general election without winning Florida since 1924.
And the early voting shows Republicans are wiping off the early voting deficit each day-
10/20 = D+ 479k
10/21 = D+ 469k
10/22 = D+ 428k
10/23 = D+ 389k
10/24 = D+ 364k
You can decide for yourself how much Democrats need to lead by heading into election day, but it doesn't look good for Democrats if that pattern continues.
In fact some have said even the current margin is not great for Democrats.
If this rightward leaning poll which predicted victory for Trump in 2016 had Biden ahead by 1 or 2% then your argument might have some validity. But with this margin for Biden in a right ward leaning poll, it is not likely that Trump would line up enough battleground states to win. No right leaning pollster like this would ever over count California and NY either in its results. I think it all means that Trump is in trouble.
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