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There is virtually no path forward for Biden if he loses both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin unless the Sunbelt turns sharply in his favor.
After I posted earlier today, I read in my local paper per UWM Poly-Sci Polling, there are not enough remaining GOP voters in WI to overcome Biden's early voting lead. I take that with a grain of salt. Mail-in votes could be the difference, especially if they are disqualified - a very high percentage are disqualified b/c of voter error. Mail-ins in our state are primarily Dem votes.
I think there is a slight difference between when Trump's name is literally on the ballot (2016/2020) vs. when he just has Congressional Republicans as a proxy for himself (2018). There are a number of voters who have little or no interest in their members of Congress, but strong about opinions on the president, and they won't hesitate to show up for (or against) him this year. How the math works out in the key states (which absolutely includes Pennsylvania) remains to be seen.
2018 turnout was the highest in over a century. It was historic by any stretch of the definition. While generally people don't care about midterms, there was a reason that turnout was so high, and it probably wasn't because their senators were particularly exciting. The X factor was Trump even if he wasn't on the ballot by name. And it's why we're also seeing record early voting turnout now. There is no gray area with Trump. You either love and worship him, or deeply despise everything about him. In both cases, that pushes turnout. There are no guarantees, but there are more people that hate Trump than love him. As you said, it's just who shows up in the critical states.
Using common sense, which do you think is more likely:
Trump winning PA by 0.7%
or
Biden winning PA by 7%
Neither, really. I think Biden wins it by 2-3. Since I think it's more likely polls are underestimating Biden than Trump, if there is an error, Biden 4-6. The former is about what Gore and Kerry got in the state, the latter is about half of Obama. I don't think this is unreasonable, especially if you still think 2016 happens. The polling error in PA was very small.
Neither, really. I think Biden wins it by 2-3. Since I think it's more likely polls are underestimating Biden than Trump, if there is an error, Biden 4-6. The former is about what Gore and Kerry got in the state, the latter is about half of Obama. I don't think this is unreasonable, especially if you still think 2016 happens. The polling error in PA was very small.
My guess it's the opposite and Trump is doing 3 points better than the polls indicate.
My guess it's the opposite and Trump is doing 3 points better than the polls indicate.
I mean, it's possible, but there's been little evidence for that. In 2016, there were tons of warning signs that support for him was stronger than national polling, such as Hillary's favorability ratings, early voter turnout that was very close or had Republicans up in some cases, the very high number of undecideds, very weak polling for Democratic candidates in local districts, etc. None of those things are true this year. Polls themselves are not the same, as all have made methodology changes since then to attempt to capture more Trump support.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22
After I posted earlier today, I read in my local paper per UWM Poly-Sci Polling, there are not enough remaining GOP voters in WI to overcome Biden's early voting lead. I take that with a grain of salt. Mail-in votes could be the difference, especially if they are disqualified - a very high percentage are disqualified b/c of voter error. Mail-ins in our state are primarily Dem votes.
You would see riots in the street if Biden actually does win the electoral college and popular vote, but loses because some random GOP clerk rejects a ballot at the county court house because someone signed the "W" in their name differently than on their drivers license.
Neither, really. I think Biden wins it by 2-3. Since I think it's more likely polls are underestimating Biden than Trump, if there is an error, Biden 4-6. The former is about what Gore and Kerry got in the state, the latter is about half of Obama. I don't think this is unreasonable, especially if you still think 2016 happens. The polling error in PA was very small.
If you look at the 2016 trends this close to the election, Trump was seeing a surge. HRC and DJT also were mired with low overall numbers. Biden is at/above 50% in 7 of the last polls. That means that even if Trump sees a rural surge or wins undecideds again, Biden more able to withstand the surge than someone who was polling at 45.
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