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Well, whatever the polls may or may not represent, one thing is for sure . . . They do not reflect voter enthusiasm. Biden's rallies consistently draw very small crowds. President Trump's rallies consistently draw large capacity crowds.
The polls and rally participation numbers do not line up. Actually, they each occupy opposite ends of the spectrum, so to speak. As such, I can totally understand how each side thinks they have the advantage.
If Biden does win, there will be many shattered preconceptions. Enthusiasm and rally sizes having merit will be just two of them. There was a wide disparity between the size of Trump rallies and Biden rallies. I don't think anyone can argue that. We might be able to put to bed the notion that rally sizes matter. (No subtle pun intended).
It's all looking like a Biden win according to mainstream media right now.
But wasn't that the case in recent history?
I dunno, smells suspect.
I would not be overly confident if I were a Democrat.
I am an independent who voted for Biden, but I agree with this statement. IF we are to believe the polls, Biden should win. However, I put no stock into the polls since 2016. I am not sure what (if anything) they have done differently this time.
I am an independent who voted for Biden, but I agree with this statement. IF we are to believe the polls, Biden should win. However, I put no stock into the polls since 2016. I am not sure what (if anything) they have done differently this time.
I'm not confident. I think it could absolutely go either way.
The conservatives on this board, you included, seem to be extremely confident, though. Care to share why?
This forum is not representative of real life IMO, at least not what I have encountered. Both the casual Biden and Trump voters I have spoken to are not super optimistic.
I think there is a general distrust of the polls because of 2016 by Biden supporters, but then there are polls in states that shouldn't be completive that are making Trump supporters a little nervous.
And cannot understand why people think rally numbers (especially during a pandemic) and yard signage is a reliable indicator of anything.
Most people I know don't participate in either.
People who say those sorts of things don't know anything about statistics. They also probably believe America has gotten much more violent simply because they see more news clips about violence. I really think a lack of knowledge on statistics is a real problem. Those same people are also the ones who are likely to deny climate change because they still have to wear their coats every winter.
People who say those sorts of things don't know anything about statistics. They also probably believe America has gotten much more violent simply because they see more news clips about violence. I really think a lack of knowledge on statistics is a real problem. Those same people are also the ones who are likely to deny climate change because they still have to wear their coats every winter.
You hear them every time there is a cold front.... “Can’t be global warming because it’s cold in the state I live in this week.”
FWIW, the polls in swing states aren't really tightening to any meaningful degree. There's some up and down noise, but there hasn't been a real shift.
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