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As of Wednesday, roughly 1.8 million voters in Arizona had cast ballots, with Democrats recording a 3 percentage point advantage over Republicans in the early vote. The current election marks the first in which Republicans have not had an advantage over Democrats in early voting, noted Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist based in Phoenix.
3% point advantage means that if 4% of the Dems voting are voting for Trump, Biden is losing. 4% really isn't that much either, and many Republicans and even others prefer to vote on Election Day.
Holding on to hope is good to a point, but one has to be realistic too to avoid the anguish of being wrong.
As of Wednesday, roughly 1.8 million voters in Arizona had cast ballots, with Democrats recording a 3 percentage point advantage over Republicans in the early vote. The current election marks the first in which Republicans have not had an advantage over Democrats in early voting, noted Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist based in Phoenix.
Arizona is the both the same and the inverse of the Midwest and rural South. In all three spots rural and blue collar white voters are shifting R while educated and suburban voters are shifting D. The big problem for Trump is that the Republicans typically won the cities/suburbs in Arizona while the outer areas have a lot of Hispanics who now vote R. Also both Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain have endorsed Biden. Trump has also had an ongoing grudge with Mitt Romney who is the highest profile Mormon in politics- Arizona has a large concentration of Mormons. In Arizona it is Rs crossing over to D that is the story. The Western Rs were either libertarian or transplanted Midwestern or California Rs not the social conservatives or economic populists who fuel Trump.
Also if young people are voting- that means a heavier Hispanic turnout and the Demographic where Trump has the least support.
3% point advantage means that if 4% of the Dems voting are voting for Trump, Biden is losing. 4% really isn't that much either, and many Republicans and even others prefer to vote on Election Day.
Holding on to hope is good to a point, but one has to be realistic too to avoid the anguish of being wrong.
Uhhh, what about Independents?
You guys keep factoring Dem and GOP voting numbers but forget the elections in most states are decided by Independents. Whoever is doing better with I's wins.
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