Tim Ryan way ahead of JD Vance in Ohio poll

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

I think Texas is trending towards swing status but Florida is growing redder. Only one Florida Dem has won statewide since 2012. And Florida is very MAGA as Trump has been hugely successful turning out his base fro both presidential elections and even the 2018 midterm- there is no Senator Rick Scott without Trump. Ohio is basically a red state with one successful D politician grandfathered in. Its kind of like Vermont being a blue state but picking an R governor. Very specific pol for the state.

FWIW- I think Ryan will basically gain another 3 points or so to get to the upper 40s but Vance will benefit from all the Rs who don't like him still voting R when they enter the voting booth. It is the same trend as the 2016 & 2020 Presidential races- the D #s where pretty close but a lot of folks who did not like (or would not openly admit to liking) Trump voted for him in the end. The Dem needs to be at atleast 48 to have a shot. 43 is too low to withstand the surge of late committing Rs.

I certainly think both DeSantis and Rubio should cruise to election this year and we will see what 2024 has in store for Florida. It does appear to be trending in the GOP direction and Trump did win it by a little more in 2020 than in 2016.

With that said the last several elections in the state for President, Governor and Senate have been quite close. The GOP has been winning them, though the margins haven't been large enough to say it has become a strong GOP state, though the momentum appears to be there

[James Bond 007]

Ryan ahead by 4.1 points in the 538 average as I write this:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ate/2022/ohio/

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by James Bond 007

Ryan ahead by 4.1 points in the 538 average as I write this:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ate/2022/ohio/

Keep in mind in two of the three models 538 still has Vance ahead and favored to win. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Ryan win and he has a chance, but the dynamics of the state are also at play.

[vegasrollingstone]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Tim Ryan 49%
JD Vance 38%

Non partisan poll. Ladies and gentlemen the GOP is in real trouble come November. The party is going to die on the trump/insurrection/abortion hill.

https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo145543749856

This race will tighten considerably because he GOP has not invested heavily in ad spending to this point but that is going to change. The McConnell operated PAC and the GOP national committee will invest several million in ad spending to change the dynamics. I predict this race will end up in the margins +/- 3 points.

[GearHeadDave]

Originally Posted by WK91

Very suspect poll. There is no way that R v W, or anything else, caused him to drop double digits.

I’m not from Ohio, but I fully expect Vance to win.

I'm from Ohio and I've been watching both of these guys closely.

Ryan is running a smart campaign that appeals to working class people and farmers. His campaign ads make it clear that he doesn't always toe the line to Democrats, he discusses Obama programs that he opposed and Trump programs that he supported. He reminds me a lot of Manchin in neighboring West Virginia.

Vance on the other hand is running the typical "all Democrats evil" schlock that we've seen a million times. Yes, it probably entrances the hardcore Trump supporters, but Vance is going to have to motivate more voters than that.

A lot of folks in Ohio are Appalachian descent, and many of them aren't wildly excited about the way Vance portrayed them in his book "Hillbilly Elegy". Vance built this book around stereotypes of the people of Appalachia. He describes their laziness, roughness, incivility, and how they can't adapt to modern America. Essentially, he disrespected them.

I've got news for Vance. I may have never voted for Donald Trump but I've known these people all my life - I would never one moment consider calling them "hillbillies", and I don't think Tim Ryan would either. Some of the finest people I've known.

I predict that Ryan will win. Probably not by a landslide but no question he has the momentum.

[Crazee Cat Lady]

Vance thinks women should stay in marriages, even when there is violence and abuse...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-d-v...212653616.html

[Blondy]

Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady

Vance thinks women should stay in marriages, even when there is violence and abuse...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-d-v...212653616.html

That is straight up crazy............not to mention dangerous and likely to get any woman who listens to him killed. Never mind what it will do to the children involved.

He seems to have some serious generational family dysfunction going on.