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Old 06-01-2022, 06:46 AM
 
Location: In Transition
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I told many people this is not going to be a runaway win for the Republicans. Tim Ryan appears to be within striking distance of flipping this seat.

The republicans aren’t a lock to runaway with anything in November.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...lock-poll/amp/

 
Old 06-01-2022, 07:20 AM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
6,035 posts, read 2,852,224 times
Reputation: 7672
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independentthinking83 View Post
I told many people this is not going to be a runaway win for the Republicans. Tim Ryan appears to be within striking distance of flipping this seat.

The republicans aren’t a lock to runaway with anything in November.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...lock-poll/amp/
17% of respondents, in this poll, are undecided. And, from the article:
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hill
Many believe Biden will be a hurdle for Ryan, according to the new survey, as 49.4 percent of Ohio voters said they want their vote in November to change the direction in which Biden has led the country.
If Republicans get 12% of the 17%, that means they would win 53.6% of the vote, while the Democrats would get 44.4% of the vote, or an 9.2% victory for the GOP. This race will be Likely to Safe Republican (5 - 10+%)...
 
Old 06-01-2022, 08:11 AM
 
Location: In Transition
3,829 posts, read 1,686,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
17% of respondents, in this poll, are undecided. And, from the article:

If Republicans get 12% of the 17%, that means they would win 53.6% of the vote, while the Democrats would get 44.4% of the vote, or an 9.2% victory for the GOP. This race will be Likely to Safe Republican (5 - 10+%)...
We will see. Anything can happen. There is a lot of time between now and the election. I don’t believe Vance is gonna cruise to a win. I think a lot of Trump endorsed candidates are going to struggle. Additionally moderate republicans are going to have an easier time winning than the extremists.

I just don’t see the GOP of today running away with it November. Ten years ago the GOP would. There are too many crazies, tin foil hat wearers and conspiracy theorists running the party today.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 08:14 AM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,166 posts, read 5,664,353 times
Reputation: 15703
Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
17% of respondents, in this poll, are undecided. And, from the article:

If Republicans get 12% of the 17%, that means they would win 53.6% of the vote, while the Democrats would get 44.4% of the vote, or an 9.2% victory for the GOP. This race will be Likely to Safe Republican (5 - 10+%)...
I've got some relatives in south-central Ohio who are not real fans of Biden. But they can't figure out the appeal of an empty suit like Vance and will be voting for Ryan in the general. They voted for Dolan in the primary.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 09:01 AM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
6,035 posts, read 2,852,224 times
Reputation: 7672
Quote:
Originally Posted by JRR View Post
I've got some relatives in south-central Ohio who are not real fans of Biden. But they can't figure out the appeal of an empty suit like Vance and will be voting for Ryan in the general. They voted for Dolan in the primary.
I find it hard to understand the appeal of a Democratic candidate, at least for Federal office, in this environment in which we find ourselves in. The party of gargantuan spending deserves to be wiped out, this November, (which has caused our inflation issue) so that it forces them to return more to the center. I am not particularly enthused by most Republicans, however, they are the better choice right now, in my opinion.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 09:22 AM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
6,035 posts, read 2,852,224 times
Reputation: 7672
Apparently, this polling outfit has a history of greatly overestimating support for the Democratic Party, in Ohio... https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/stat...C90bTNmcIqAAAA
 
Old 06-01-2022, 09:26 AM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
11,974 posts, read 25,483,414 times
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Not expecting a blow out but Ohio is now a red state until proven otherwise. Polls since Trump usually underguess GOP but 5%. So I read any poll showing Vance down by 1% to 5% as actually meaning he is leading.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 09:47 AM
 
5,581 posts, read 2,310,056 times
Reputation: 4804
Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
Apparently, this polling outfit has a history of greatly overestimating support for the Democratic Party, in Ohio... https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/stat...C90bTNmcIqAAAA
Most polls for Ohio 2022 US Senate have Vance and Ryan in dead heat or near dead heat.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 09:53 AM
 
Location: In Transition
3,829 posts, read 1,686,900 times
Reputation: 1455
Quote:
Originally Posted by Variable View Post
Most polls for Ohio 2022 US Senate have Vance and Ryan in dead heat or near dead heat.
As I said this seat is going to be vulnerable for the GOP. Ryan has a real shot and flipping this seat.

If it were Mandel or Dolan this wouldn’t be as close. Trump really got the Ohio GOP up in arms. I wouldn’t be shocked if this seat and the PA seat flipped to the Dems in November.

People don’t want the tin foil hat wearing folks and conspiracy theorists.
 
Old 06-01-2022, 10:15 AM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
8,166 posts, read 5,664,353 times
Reputation: 15703
Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
I find it hard to understand the appeal of a Democratic candidate, at least for Federal office, in this environment in which we find ourselves in. The party of gargantuan spending deserves to be wiped out, this November, (which has caused our inflation issue) so that it forces them to return more to the center. I am not particularly enthused by most Republicans, however, they are the better choice right now, in my opinion.
My relatives look at the person as well as the party. Vance is not the type of person they want as their senator.
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