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After watching an ad this morning by Ryan trashing Vance, it just furthers my belief that Vance ONLY wins if voters vote strictly to prevent Democrats from keeping control of the Senate. I don't see that happening. Vance's comments from the past and Ryan voting against bad trade deals in the past I think will give Ryan the edge. Hope I'm wrong. As of now I'm saying Ryan has a 70% chance of winning. Ugh.
Unfortunately I don't share this thinking...70% is high...but I do think we have a 50/50 chance of pulling out this seat.
Especially if the DNC gives it some priority.
Predicit betting market favors a GOP win in the OH senate election at 84 to 16. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place (in this case 84% chance Vance wins versus 16% that Ryan does). Buy ‘Yes’ shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ‘No’ shares when you think they are too optimistic.
Put a thousand bucks on Ryan and you'll walk away with a tidy fortune. Assuming you're right, of course!
Sherrod Brown crushed Josh Mandel who is a terrible human being as well as a terrible politician once before...we'd love to match up against him again.
Crushed Mandel??? No. In 2012 Brown ended up with 50.7% of the vote, Mandel had 44.7%.
In 2018 Mandel withdrew from the race due to his wife's health issue(s).
You attacked Mandel's character. He's a veteran who served two tours in Iraq. He believes in the sanctity of life. He wants real border security and no amnesty for illegals. During the primaries he took the position that illegals should be sent back to their native countries, many Americans agree.
If anyone is a terrible human being it's Brown. He has spousal abuse on his record. Since he and Portman are my Senators I've emailed them more than once. Portman's replies have always been professional. Brown's have always been nasty, finger-pointing towards Republicans. All's you have to do is look at his very liberal voting record to see how much harm he's helped do to the country.
If you think Brown would have an easy time against Mandel in 2024 you're living in the past. Americans are fed up with the nuttiness that has gone on. But hey, if you like paying $5 or more for gasoline and seeing more than 8% inflation, keep voting for the lamebrains that have caused the mess.
Then again, looks like you are in SC, so you wont have a vote in Ohio's 2024 Senate race.
Ryan may be the best candidate Dems could run and if the national environment was like 2018, he would probably be a slight favorite for the seat. But the national environment is absolutely terrible for democrats. It's very possible we could be in recession by election. I just don't see Vance lossing unless he had some major scandal. He seems like a perfectly ok candate and not likely to have some sort of roy Moore/ted akin meltdown on the stump.
Ryan getting 43% of the vote is probably on track, but Vance with 34% is not. In such a polarized era the share of undecided voters is not going to be so high. Also a large share of hard core #MAGA people refuse to answer polls, but always show up to vote for Republicans, especially those endorsed by the Big Orange Man.
Ryan getting 43% of the vote is probably on track, but Vance with 34% is not. In such a polarized era the share of undecided voters is not going to be so high. Also a large share of hard core #MAGA people refuse to answer polls, but always show up to vote for Republicans, especially those endorsed by the Big Orange Man.
That poll has twenty-six percent of respondents "undecided", which greatly exceeds the margin of the poll. That poll is worthless...
At this point in time most polls are going to have a lot of undecided people. So it's pretty normal for a poll 4 months before an election.
He didn't comment on whether it was normal. He commented on it being worthless, which it is.
Vance is still a shade better than 80-20 at Predictit. I was going to go in and buy some Vance shares if it somehow got below 80 (even at 82, it's free money). People aren't buying these BS polls anymore. There was a parade of polls in Ohio that flagrantly overestimated Biden last time, and this is deja vu. DNC bots will tie themselves into knots insisting this time it's different, but it's not.
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