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Ohio is basically a +8 Republican state at this point. A lot of moderate Republicans have not liked the direction of the party for a decade- but they are still Republicans and will vote R when they must make a choice. So on a questionnaire/survey they won't support Vance but when they enter the voting booth they return to party preference.
I do think R might come up short of the built in R advantage but acutally losing would be a tall task- especially in what should be an R wave.
We've seen one Senate race after another in red states where the Democratic nominee polls competitively, and then on Election Day, the Republican ends up winning in a landslide. More important than the margin in this poll is that a large share of voters are undecided. Additionally, the "low social trust" voters who prefer populist, conservative, Trump supporting candidates tend not to respond to polls.
While Ryan may be about the best possible Democrat for Ohio (aside from current Sen. Brown), the state has likely shifted too far to the right for him to have a chance - especially with the #MAGA crowd more motivated than ever to elect a Congress that will oppose the Biden administration. Vance making unorthodox remarks that astound the media likely endears him even more to such voters.
I do expect Vance to ultimately win at this point, however with Vance being the GOP nominee (Mandel would have been stronger) and Ryan as the Democratic nominee this is one to watch and should be close.
I've got some relatives in south-central Ohio who are not real fans of Biden. But they can't figure out the appeal of an empty suit like Vance and will be voting for Ryan in the general. They voted for Dolan in the primary.
Did your relatives vote for Trump in 2020? I have a hard time imagining anyone who voted for Trump in 2020 would vote for Tim Ryan. And Trump was +8 in Ohio in 2020, so...yeah, no reason to think this race will be close.
Democrats pretended Ohio was a tossup state in 2020, too, and we saw how that went.
Did your relatives vote for Trump in 2020? I have a hard time imagining anyone who voted for Trump in 2020 would vote for Tim Ryan. And Trump was +8 in Ohio in 2020, so...yeah, no reason to think this race will be close.
Democrats pretended Ohio was a tossup state in 2020, too, and we saw how that went.
They did not vote for president in 2020. They disliked Hillary and despised Trump.
They did not vote for president in 2020. They disliked Hillary and despised Trump.
So, they didn't bother to vote against Trump, but we are to believe they'll vote against JD Vance? I don't know, maybe they will. But I think it's bad practice to project the race based on Never-Trumpers capriciously making protest votes for Tim Ryan.
So, they didn't bother to vote against Trump, but we are to believe they'll vote against JD Vance? I don't know, maybe they will. But I think it's bad practice to project the race based on Never-Trumpers capriciously making protest votes for Tim Ryan.
They look upon Ryan as a less distasteful choice than Clinton and look at Vance as just a puppet of Trump. Why do you find it so hard to believe that other people may not have the same political feelings as you do and don't fit into your neat little boxes?
They look upon Ryan as a less distasteful choice than Clinton and look at Vance as just a puppet of Trump. Why do you find it so hard to believe that other people may not have the same political feelings as you do and don't fit into your neat little boxes?
Do they look upon Ryan as a less distasteful choice than Biden, whom they didn't vote for in 2020? If so, that doesn't make much sense to me. And I've yet to come across someone here in Ohio, in real life, who thinks that way.
My stepdad and mother who are very much old school republicans (they hated Trump and hate the direction the party seems be headed) have already started donating to Tim Ryan...they are very much John Kasich Republicans but they will be voting Tim Ryan...they will still be supporting Republican Governor Mike DeWine but they don't care at all for JD Vance....they had supported Mike Dolan in the Primary...but too many uneducated rural folk live in this state and they all are part of the Trump cult.
We will see. Anything can happen. There is a lot of time between now and the election. I don’t believe Vance is gonna cruise to a win. I think a lot of Trump endorsed candidates are going to struggle. Additionally moderate republicans are going to have an easier time winning than the extremists.
I just don’t see the GOP of today running away with it November. Ten years ago the GOP would. There are too many crazies, tin foil hat wearers and conspiracy theorists running the party today.
Trump has a massive approval rating in Ohio and he won Ohio by almost 9 points both times.
My stepdad and mother who are very much old school republicans (they hated Trump and hate the direction the party seems be headed) have already started donating to Tim Ryan...they are very much John Kasich Republicans but they will be voting Tim Ryan...they will still be supporting Republican Governor Mike DeWine but they don't care at all for JD Vance....they had supported Mike Dolan in the Primary...but too many uneducated rural folk live in this state and they all are part of the Trump cult.
So in other words, they are now Democrats.
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