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I guess we will see. I think the GOP is not going to perform well as the supporters expect. The January 6 hearings and roe v wade repeal is going to hurt them big time.
I think Ohio could very well be a Democratic pickup In November.
I will tell you this. If Ryan wins the Ohio seat the democrats are probably winning in other unexpected places as well and it is going to be a bad night for the GOP.
Polls in Iowa show Senator Grassley up only by 7 percent. That is the closest polls recorded since he was first elected. That was in 1981 and he’s 88 years old. I’m sure he’s mentally with it as well.
And Iowa is another state where your vaunted polls took a home run cut, swung, missed, lost control of the bat and sent it flying into the stands, tore an oblique, and shat their pants in 2020 (Trump beat his RCP average by 6 and his 538 average by 7).
he only got or surpassed 53% in 4 of the 30ish polls you posted.
he clearly outperformed his polls and thats without me weighting it. Im not sure why you even posted this response. unless you are literally just saying one pollster at the end had 53%, which again, thats not how averages work. Polls are done by different services . The only time the last poll would matter in this context is if it was a weekly poll done by the same service that you can look at change over time.
he only got or surpassed 53% in 4 of the 30ish polls you posted.
he clearly outperformed his polls and thats without me weighting it. Im not sure why you even posted this response. unless you are literally just saying one pollster at the end had 53%, which again, thats not how averages work. Polls are done by different services . The only time the last poll would matter in this context is if it was a weekly poll done by the same service that you can look at change over time.
You have a right to make this argument. I never debated it.
TBF, I think Tribeca was referring to the margin of victory in the polls and not the top line #. If a final margin for example is 53-45, and one poll had in 48-40 and another 52-36, the 48-40 is closer to the margin. In recent elections it is pretty clear Republicans have done better in the end result in Ohio than polling has suggested. With that said, it doesn't mean it is automatic it will happen again. However, at this point there isn't enough polling outside of internal type polling to draw much in the way of any conclusions when looking at polling for the race. Ryan is a very strong candidate and Vance is not, but the year and the dynamics of the state might be enough to make up for the candidate quality difference.
he only got or surpassed 53% in 4 of the 30ish polls you posted.
he clearly outperformed his polls and thats without me weighting it. Im not sure why you even posted this response. unless you are literally just saying one pollster at the end had 53%, which again, thats not how averages work. Polls are done by different services . The only time the last poll would matter in this context is if it was a weekly poll done by the same service that you can look at change over time.
His Republican opponent got 46.6% of the vote. Guess how many of the "30ish" polls had him getting that much of the vote? None.
So, if I'm playing along with your semantics game and agreeing that Brown outperformed his polls, then his Republican opponent outperformed his polls by more.
If, instead, we agree to cut the semantics BS, then we see that an overwhelming majority of polls in Ohio had a margin of victory for Brown that was larger than the actual margin of victory ended up being.
Last edited by tribecavsbrowns; 07-24-2022 at 09:01 PM..
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Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns
His Republican opponent got 46.6% of the vote. Guess how many of the "30ish" polls had him getting that much of the vote? None.
So, if I'm playing along with your semantics game and agreeing that Brown outperformed his polls, then his Republican opponent outperformed his polls by more.
If, instead, we agree to cut the semantics BS, then we see that an overwhelming majority of polls in Ohio had a margin of victory for Brown that was larger than the actual margin of victory ended up being.
We are making 2 different points.
I specifically argued Sherrod Brown outperforming his polling average.
You argued margin of victory.
Those are not one in the same.
If you feel one is more important than the other , thats fine, its a valid argument, but they are not the same. The semantics are on you, as I proposed the original premise.
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Originally Posted by Smash255
TBF, I think Tribeca was referring to the margin of victory in the polls and not the top line #. If a final margin for example is 53-45, and one poll had in 48-40 and another 52-36, the 48-40 is closer to the margin. In recent elections it is pretty clear Republicans have done better in the end result in Ohio than polling has suggested. With that said, it doesn't mean it is automatic it will happen again. However, at this point there isn't enough polling outside of internal type polling to draw much in the way of any conclusions when looking at polling for the race. Ryan is a very strong candidate and Vance is not, but the year and the dynamics of the state might be enough to make up for the candidate quality difference.
I dont mind goal post moving as long as people admit to it.
My post was made to the forum and I set the premise of Sherrod beating his polls, he did in fact do that. the response I got was "no, he didnt", which is not true. The poster argued Margin of victory instead. Without more than a "here's a link to polls", i couldnt see the MoV argument and simply assumed they were going by the last poll that had him at 54 instead of the average.
im not arguing that its in the bag, im saying Vance is a bad enough candidate and that its possible.
on top of that. Dems havent released any polls with Ryan down to fundraise on, and Republicans havent released any polls at all and Vance's campaign is being saved by a couple of Billionaires. He may genuinely be the candidate solely because Trump endorsed him in the end and Mandel was an idiot.
Its a race where both sides seemed to be a little shocked that it isnt going like they thought it would.
I specifically argued Sherrod Brown outperforming his polling average.
You argued margin of victory.
Those are not one in the same.
If you feel one is more important than the other , thats fine, its a valid argument, but they are not the same. The semantics are on you, as I proposed the original premise.
Right, it's as if you argued "the Cincinnati Reds are in third place in their division this year," and I said "no, they're not" and sent a link to the standings showing them in fifth (last), and you said, "no, I mean by runs scored." Well, baseball standings aren't done by runs scored, bub.
Nearly everyone "outperforms his polling average" in the semantical sense you're using, because of the number of undecided voters in the polls. But I think you know that. You just wanted an example of an end result of a statewide election in Ohio ending up looking better for Democrats than the polls forecasted. But I was here to call you out and show that the example you used is actually (yet another) example of the end result looking better than the polls for Republicans.
You started a separate thread on that question; why don't you go ask it there?
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