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At this point in time most polls are going to have a lot of undecided people. So it's pretty normal for a poll 4 months before an election.
As much as I would like to see Ryan win the race, it is not normal to see undecideds this high at this point in the race, especially in this climate. I might buy this being closer than most people expect, but not this margin, especially without more polling to back it up.
There was a Democratic internal poll (yes, with a biased agenda like any internal) published today with Ryan 48/Vance 46. I think what is going on is Ryan didn't have a competitive primary, while Vance did and he wouldn't have won without Trump's support. Over the next few months most of the Republicans who supported other primary candidates are likely to shift towards Vance, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't win by at least a high single digits margin in the end.
Tim Ryan is leading by 5 percent over JD Vance in the poll released on July 22. The GOP is in danger of losing this seat as well. Donald Trump and the overturning of Roe v wade is sinking the GOP
The polls may or not be BS, but they are more scientific than Predictit.
They're BS. They have a documented track record of being BS. That's why the market doesn't move in response to them.
I'm a "money talks, bulls*** walks" guy. Feel free to go over to Predictit and bet on Ryan because that's who your "scientific" polls have in the lead (it pays out 5:1). I'll take your money just like I did to the people who believed the "scientific" polling that said at this time in 2020 that Biden was winning Ohio.
Still 80-20 Vance on Predictit. No one buys these BS polls.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hesychios
The polls may or not be BS, but they are more scientific than Predictit.
They're BS. They have a documented track record of being BS. That's why the market doesn't move in response to them.
I'm a "money talks, bulls*** walks" guy. Feel free to go over to Predictit and bet on Ryan because that's who your "scientific" polls have in the lead (it pays out 5:1). I'll take your money just like I did to the people who believed the "scientific" polling that said at this time in 2020 that Biden was winning Ohio.
You are ranting. I don't have an opinion about the race, I just stated a simple fact.
A poll is based upon scientific principles, a gambling site is not. To elaborate: Naturally, some pollsters have better techniques or practices than others but they use a scientific model. A gambling site is based upon the hunches, emotions, anecdotal evidence, hot tips (and a little bit of madness at times) of a self selected group. Hardly consistent, not at all scientific.
You are getting all worked up and reacting to something I never said.
Last edited by CaseyB; 07-24-2022 at 04:28 PM..
Reason: rude
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