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Sabato's Crystal Ball has a model based on state partisanship, incumbency and presidential party to predict the outcomes of all Senate races this year. They are forecasting a Republican win of 10.8 points in Ohio.
While the model doesn't suggest this, I wouldn't be surprised if in the end, Vance wins by a larger margin in Ohio than the incumbent Democrats in blue states like Washington or Connecticut. That is how bad the environment can get for Democrats this year.
Sabato's Crystal Ball has a model based on state partisanship, incumbency and presidential party to predict the outcomes of all Senate races this year. They are forecasting a Republican win of 10.8 points in Ohio.
While the model doesn't suggest this, I wouldn't be surprised if in the end, Vance wins by a larger margin in Ohio than the incumbent Democrats in blue states like Washington or Connecticut. That is how bad the environment can get for Democrats this year.
Yeah, but does Sabato's model factor in such compelling arguments seen on this thread as "my Never-Trump relatives aren't voting for Vance" and "Covid might have killed enough Republicans to make a red state purple?" I think not.
Perhaps that is what they are telling you so that you will stop bugging them about their private voting decision...
Maybe if you threaten them with “I will not come over or talk to you unless you vote straight Democrat”. I have actually heard of people doing this (both sides, but more so with Democrats threatening Republican parents)
No you have no clue...my family and I have a great relationship...we may have very different views on major issues but I would never threaten to Not come over or talk unless they voted my way and they would never do that to me...people who do that are crazy if you ask me...the only family members I've cut off are my brother and it's because he cannot accept that I'm gay...every one else in my family, including my grandparents have fully accepted me but not him.
We have already been there and done that with Trump. He gave trillions away in stimulus checks to many people and those that didn’t need it. The only thing I disagreed with is giving people money that didn’t need it. Otherwise it was the right thing to do. Again inflation or depression take your pick.
And you make a good point and you echo the same sentiments when I ask republicans that question. How are they going to fix inflation? Fix supply chains, deal with shortages? How are they going to find more people to work and fill jobs? How are they going to deal with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Just voting Republican is not going to magically fix those things. As you stated they appear to have no plans for handling these things
Most people that post here are right to far right, yet I have yet to hear solid solutions to tackle those issues. Same thing with all the GOP candidates I hear running. Talking about stolen elections, conspiracy theories, making abortion illegal, punishing companies like Disney.
What is their platform? I have yet to hear it.
Blah blah blah, what next, are you gonna try to convince us that Build Back Better costs "0" dollars and will "lower inflation?"
My relatives look at the person as well as the party. Vance is not the type of person they want as their senator.
So let me get this straight - your relative are more concerned with how "nice" the candidate is, over the real and present threats to their very way of life like runaway inflation, out of control crime and a porous border? You know those "nice" democrats are flooding places like Ohio with fenty and other drugs via a wide open border?
But sure, if being a "nice" person is more important to them, let them vote dem. They were probably worried about mean tweets vs a strong man defending America, too.
So let me get this straight - your relative are more concerned with how "nice" the candidate is, over the real and present threats to their very way of life like runaway inflation, out of control crime and a porous border? You know those "nice" democrats are flooding places like Ohio with fenty and other drugs via a wide open border?
But sure, if being a "nice" person is more important to them, let them vote dem. They were probably worried about mean tweets vs a strong man defending America, too.
They are old fashioned and believe that the character of a candidate still means something. They voted for Dolan in the primary but do not like Vance. They prefer a Republican but they also don't buy into the fear stuff that if Ryan is elected that their lives will become unbearable.
I'm not surprised. Trump backed the wrong candidate during Ohio's primary election. Should have chosen Josh Mandel, but I honestly believe he was just taking the advice of his son. It was clear Trump doesn't know much about Vance, took him a couple of tries to even get his name correct at one of his rallies, referring to him as JP Mandel, when it's JD Vance. Vance's poll numbers more than doubled after Trump endorsed him. Wish he would have stayed out of endorsing a candidate the way the Ohio Republican party asked him to.
During the primary there was an ad that highlighted comments Vance made about Trump in the past. It's clear he was a RINO never-Trumper at the time, now we are supposed to believe he agrees with the Trump agenda? There wont be a lot of enthusiasm among voters for Vance in November, but Ohioans know Republicans need to take back the Senate and House to put up as many roadblocks as possible to the absolutely disastrous Biden administration, and to stop Democrats from pushing through awful legislation that damages this country like they have been.
Unfortunately, I don't have much faith in voters to make decisions for the right reasons when they cast their vote. Because they are familiar with Tim Ryan's name, and yes, because he seems like a nice, non-threatening guy, it's very possible he wins Portman's seat.
As for as Josh Mandel, I'm hoping he runs against Sen. Sherrod 'Scruffy' Brown again in 2024. Brown has been in office far too long for someone with such a terrible record in the Senate. He's one of those D.C. politicians you ask yourself why they are intentionally doing harm to our country. He is that bad. Mandel will have a better chance against him than Vance would have, so if Vance squeaks out a victory over Ryan and Mandel beats Brown in two years, it will have worked out for the best.
Best case scenario: Vance wins Portman's seat, Republicans take back the House & Senate, and Trump wins the presidential election for the third time (w/o this one being stolen). They'll have a lot of work to do to undo a lot of the damage done during Biden's time in the White House. And if you're scoffing at my comments as a Democrat right now I'll just ask, how much did it cost you at the pump the last time you filled up your vehicle? And how much longer can you keep it up before your credit cards are maxed out and you can't fill your tank any longer??? Biden's domestic energy policy has been catastrophic. And while Russia's war in the Ukraine has contributed to price hikes, Trump had a very good relationship with the Saudis and if need be would have asked them nicely to increase production and they probably would have complied. Plus, we would be pumping much more of our own oil than we are currently, and pipelines wouldn't have been shutdown like they have under Biden.
And I say this as someone who isn't a Republican. In fact, after 2026 I wont vote for another Republican, and I swore off the Democrat party almost two decades ago. What we need is a new third party in the not too distant future. And until we have a great one I can get behind I'll be voting issues only after '26. But for now, I need to do my small part and vote for those who'll try to end the insanity that's been going on thanks to the Democrats in control in Washington D.C.. And I would urge you Democrats that agree they have gone way too loony left that want your party back to vote for Republicans until bad actors are out of power. One thing we know, Trump will do his best to protect our country, bring gas prices down, keep taxes low, and create an environment that will help bring jobs back to our country. You can hate the man's ego and personality all you want, sometimes I do to, but if you want what is best for our nation try to look past that because it's the best we have in our time. I was born in '65 and when it comes to policy, Trump is the best president we've had in my lifetime. Don't throw away the opportunity to help get our country back on track. Vote Republican in '22, '24 & '26, then after Trump leaves office in January of '29, reevaluate which party will lead us the best.
They are old fashioned and believe that the character of a candidate still means something. They voted for Dolan in the primary but do not like Vance. They prefer a Republican but they also don't buy into the fear stuff that if Ryan is elected that their lives will become unbearable.
If these were normal times under an Obama or a Clinton democrat, sure I'd agree character still means something. But when you have a puppet stooge controlled by woke leftists hellbent on destroying the American middle class, this is not the time to look at someone's character.
Your relatives have to realize today's democrats are not the democrats of the Bill Clinton era. Heck, they're not even the democrats of the Obama era. They have taken a drastic turn to the left, particularly when it comes to the quality of life and general well being of American citizens, who are now clearly in last place under the democrats.
If you're in danger, would you prefer a mean arrogant tough guy to protect you, or the nice gentle guy who never curses but can't defend himself or anyone even if he was at gunpoint? Think about it.
If these were normal times under an Obama or a Clinton democrat, sure I'd agree character still means something. But when you have a puppet stooge controlled by woke leftists hellbent on destroying the American middle class, this is not the time to look at someone's character.
Your relatives have to realize today's democrats are not the democrats of the Bill Clinton era. Heck, they're not even the democrats of the Obama era. They have taken a drastic turn to the left, particularly when it comes to the quality of life and general well being of American citizens, who are now clearly in last place under the democrats.
If you're in danger, would you prefer a mean arrogant tough guy to protect you, or the nice gentle guy who never curses but can't defend himself or anyone even if he was at gunpoint? Think about it.
Not everyone agrees with your portrayal of horrible destruction by Democrats. That is just your point of view. My relatives don't live or die with politics 24/7; they have other things in their lives.
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