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Since the 1952 presidential election, Arizona has been considered a stronghold state for the Republican Party, as it won Arizona in all elections since except 1996 and 2020.
Let's not try to pretend that Arizona is somehow historically "purple", at least when it comes to the Presidency. Clinton once and Biden once, in 70 years.
In the last 30 years, 4 of the 5 Governors have been Republican.
That's not the whole picture. Electorate change. People from California escape to Arizona and the problem with the border. I still think it leans right.
Clinton barely won in 1996 by 2% but Ross took 8% and Ross was not Liberal and let's face it, Dole was too old in 1996 and the economy good.
Biden took AZ by a hair in 2020 with 0.3% but it was under a pandemic. Biden doesn't even come close if he runs in 2024. Kamala does worse.
Last edited by SanJuanStar; 08-04-2022 at 02:19 PM..
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In the last 30 years, 4 of the 5 Governors have been Republican.
I lived in NV for 22 years and lived under 2 Republican Governors, who hailed over the biggest tax increases in NV history, Gibbons and Sandoval. Their current Governor is a DINO.
You sure don't want to vote in a Republican like Nelson Rockefeller! Someone like him would bankrupt any state.
During his realm, NY was teetering on Bankruptcy, including NYC, and Rockefeller pushed ahead construction of a $2 Billion dollar State Capital complex.
Gore Vidal: There's only one political party in the U.S., one side swings left, another to the right. How true it is! And what was he intimating: corporate owned politicians!
That's not the whole picture. Electorate change. People from California escape to Arizona and the problem with the border. I still think it leans right.
Clinton barely won in 1996 by 2% but Ross took 8% and Ross is not Liberal and let's face it, Dole was too old in 1996 and the economy good.
Biden took AZ by a hair in 2020 with 0.3% but it was under a pandemic. Biden doesn't even come close if he runs in 2024. Kamala does worse.
I live in Maricopa county and was surprised Biden won the state. But as you say the 2020 election was under a pandemic. Which isn't to suggest I believe the election was necessarily stolen but I do believe there were problems.
In any event I think the story in AZ come Nov. will be the increase in Hispanic support which the Rep. party receives. My feelings is the Rep. party will win big in AZ this year.
Part. Today if you are a Blue Collar Democrat like Sinema or Napolitano you can win in Arizona. Democrats can win but it depends the year (blue wave or red wave, the economy and who is in the WH) and the type of Democrat and the quality of the Republican candidate.
I still thinks it leans right but Blue Collar Democrats can win. Let's see what % of Latinos vote for Democrats.
I live in Maricopa county and was surprised Biden won the state. But as you say the 2020 election was under a pandemic. Which isn't to suggest I believe the election was necessarily stolen but I do believe there were problems.
In any event I think the story in AZ come Nov. will be the increase in Hispanic support which the Rep. party receives. My feelings is the Rep. party will win big in AZ this year.
I agree. 2020 was a crazy year. People losing their jobs or getting their hours cut The government paying people lots of money to stay home. The Federal government paid MORE to stay home than what they were earning at work. Many didn't want to return and messed up worse the economy. Many people that had to work felt that was very irresponsible and rightly so.
Add that Biden and the Democrat party were offering 2k checks for EVERYBODY during the campaign when Republicans were split in holding back. We are paying it dearly today with inflation but it helped Biden win by a hair.
You offer from 4k to over 10k per house during bad times and you will get many people to vote for you regardless if they don't like your politics. It's a bad a idea in the long run but it worked during the pandemic. The goal was to get to power.
It threw the election off. That's why Biden repeating it again in Arizona in 2024 is impossible and Kamala is worse. Unless a war or another pandemic comes and he offers 4k to over 10k per house. That's not going to happen.
Last edited by SanJuanStar; 08-04-2022 at 02:46 PM..
Part. Today if you are a Blue Collar Democrat like Sinema or Napolitano you can win in Arizona. Democrats can win but it depends the year (blue wave or red wave, the economy and who is in the WH) and the type of Democrat and the quality of the Republican candidate.
I still thinks it leans right but Blue Collar Democrats can win. Let's see what % of Latinos vote for Democrats.
The type of Republican candidate also matters. Arizona is dominated by metro Phoenix. While Phoenix itself leans Democratic, traditionally the surrounding areas have been quite Republican so the county as a whole has been Republican In 2020 Maricopa County went Democratic on the Presidential level for the first time since 1948. If the Republicans can't get metro Phoenix back and win Maricopa County it will be very hard for them to win statewide. Lake (assuming she holds on) and Masters aren't the type of candidates that fit well in growing metro areas and despite it being a likely bad year for Democrats along with Biden's poor #'s, candidate quality may cost the GOP in Arizona.
The type of Republican candidate also matters. Arizona is dominated by metro Phoenix. While Phoenix itself leans Democratic, traditionally the surrounding areas have been quite Republican so the county as a whole has been Republican In 2020 Maricopa County went Democratic on the Presidential level for the first time since 1948. If the Republicans can't get metro Phoenix back and win Maricopa County it will be very hard for them to win statewide. Lake (assuming she holds on) and Masters aren't the type of candidates that fit well in growing metro areas and despite it being a likely bad year for Democrats along with Biden's poor #'s, candidate quality may cost the GOP in Arizona.
Actually if you look at the state legislature for the last 10 years it has been trending towards democrat control. Currently the state senate 16 GOP to 14 DEM and state house 31 GOP to 29 DEM. Prior years GOP enjoyed a 10 or more seat advantage. This has lot to do with liberals moving here from California and other states. Hobbs will win in November no way Robson voters will vote for Lake.
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