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In other words, races where the GOP has a chance to win...
Masters is still in the race but you're right. Those writing the checks have had second thoughts.
Kelly attack ads are everywhere in AZ. Local TV, cable, Roku and YouTube. God only knows how much money the Kelly campaign has to spend.
Still turnout will determine the race. If Masters is within 2 points come election day... he certainly has a chance to win.
Now, I'm hardly what you would consider a Masters supporter but I'm voting for him becuase I don't want the Dems controlling the Senate.
Humm...
McConnell said the following regarding the midterms:
"I think there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."
This is shocking and unprecedented.
In politics, every candidate and his party leader always display optimism and confidence about their chances in electoral races, even for the candidate who is doing poorly.
But McConnell is spreading negativity about his own party.
What could the reason be?
Perhaps because he knows that if the GOP wins with a significant number of MAGA candidates in the Senate, he will lose his leadership position.
McConnell, hence, would prefer a GOP loss if it means him retaining his status as leader rather than the GOP winning a majority in the Senate but him being relegated to the back benches.
McConnell is also an old guard of the Washington establishment who is more comfortable working with Democrats than MAGA Republicans.
He is probably relieved that Trump is no longer in the White House.
The funds will go to the races in Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
I was looking for news on this because I saw a video report that the GOP had washed their hands of Masters pulled their money. Mark Kelly had 50 million to spend he had 50 times what Masters was bankrolled with. I suspect Masters will lose with even larger amount then Martha Mcsally.
I was looking for news on this because I saw a video report that the GOP had washed their hands of Masters pulled their money. Mark Kelly had 50 million to spend he had 50 times what Masters was bankrolled with. I suspect Masters will lose with even larger amount then Martha McSally.
I do not think so.
In the 2020 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly led Senator McSally by 5.7 percentage points in the RCP average. Mr. Kelly only defeated Senator McSally by 2.4 percentage points, a difference of 3.3 percentage points.
Senator Kelly is currently leading the RCP average by 3.3 percentage points. If the error in polling is the same as it was two years ago, this race is a exact tie, and given that this is a Republican year, and Mrs. Lake is ahead in her RCP average, means that Mr. Masters is likely ahead by one percentage point, or so.
Personally, I think the Governor's race is lean Republican, and the Senate race is tilt Republican to pure tossup.
I think all polls are underestimating most Republicans, this year. Even the pollsters are admitting they probably are...
The funds will go to the races in Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Quote:
Josh Kraushaar is the best political reporter employed by Axios. I expect better than this article. The article is titled "Scoop: McConnell-aligned super PAC pulls out of Arizona." The title's intent is to make it sound like Republicans have thrown in the towel against Sen. Kelly. That isn't what's happening whatsoever. To be fair, the article opens by saying "The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is canceling $9.6 million in television ads for the Arizona Senate race, confident that other outside conservative groups will make up much of the difference for Republican nominee Blake Masters."
Now for the rest of the story. The reason why McConnell's super PAC is pulling its ad buys is because "other GOP-aligned super PACs, including one affiliated with the conservative Heritage Action for America super PAC, will be making up some of the difference. The Sentinel Action Fund will be spending $3.5 million on television ads and another $1.5 million on voter outreach, according to Politico."
In the 2020 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly led Senator McSally by 5.7 percentage points in the RCP average. Mr. Kelly only defeated Senator McSally by 2.4 percentage points, a difference of 3.3 percentage points.
Senator Kelly is currently leading the RCP average by 3.3 percentage points. If the error in polling is the same as it was two years ago, this race is a exact tie, and given that this is a Republican year, and Mrs. Lake is ahead in her RCP average, means that Mr. Masters is likely ahead by one percentage point, or so.
Personally, I think the Governor's race is lean Republican, and the Senate race is tilt Republican to pure tossup.
I think all polls are underestimating most Republicans, this year. Even the pollsters are admitting they probably are...
Your using RCP I'm using Fivethirtyeight if you look at majority of polls on 538 Senator Kelly is leading by double digits unlike his polling against Martha McSally.
Governor's race is going to be much closer not sure why but maybe voters feel a Governor will impact them personally more than a senator. In the end both democrats will win it I wouldn't say that if Robson had won the primary.
Masters is getting plenty more money, and the GOP has not "washed their hands of Masters" as one of the other gas lighters claimed.
Truth is, Mark Kelly is probably toast, especially now that the wide open Southern border is a top issue thanks to DeSantis and Abbott.
Masters certainly has a chance to win. However, I'm in AZ and Kelly attack ads are everywhere.
Side note: I received a giant-size political postcard with Masters on the front last Saturday. My first thought was this postcard wasn't cheap. The Master campaign must have gotten money. I was about to toss it when I realized it was an attack ad sent by the Kelly campaign.
Not sure how well that postcard worked if the first thing you see is Masters.
Your using RCP I'm using Fivethirtyeight if you look at majority of polls on 538 Senator Kelly is leading by double digits unlike his polling against Martha McSally.
Governor's race is going to be much closer not sure why but maybe voters feel a Governor will impact them personally more than a senator. In the end both democrats will win it I wouldn't say that if Robson had won the primary.
Fivethirtyeight is using Center Street PAC which has two Senate polls with Kelly up by over 20 points. This polling organization is not close to being accurate. They also have Hobbs leading Lake by 14 and 12 points for the AZ Governor race.
Real Clear Politics doesn't include that organization in the polling average so the difference is much closer and more accurate.
Fivethirtyeight is using Center Street PAC which has two Senate polls with Kelly up by over 20 points. This polling organization is not close to being accurate. They also have Hobbs leading Lake by 14 and 12 points for the AZ Governor race.
Real Clear Politics doesn't include that organization in the polling average so the difference is much closer and more accurate.
Five thirty eight is very likely overestimating Kelly's lead.
However, I've seen some conservatives boast about the "Trafalgar Poll". I'll just say that Trafalgar had Trump winning both the popular vote and electoral vote in 2020. Actual results were that Biden won the national popular vote by over 4% and the electoral vote by over seventy votes.
Bottom line: Kelly is ahead and likely to win, but probably by under 5%.
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