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Fivethirtyeight is using Center Street PAC which has two Senate polls with Kelly up by over 20 points. This polling organization is not close to being accurate. They also have Hobbs leading Lake by 14 and 12 points for the AZ Governor race.
Real Clear Politics doesn't include that organization in the polling average so the difference is much closer and more accurate.
Five thirty eight is very likely overestimating Kelly's lead.
However, I've seen some conservatives boast about the "Trafalgar Poll". I'll just say that Trafalgar had Trump winning both the popular vote and electoral vote in 2020. Actual results were that Biden won the national popular vote by over 4% and the electoral vote by over seventy votes.
Bottom line: Kelly is ahead and likely to win, but probably by under 5%.
"I'm a Republican, but if you think I'm going to make a poll look positive for somebody because of what party I'm in, you don't know me very well," Cahaly told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett on this week's episode of "The Takeout" podcast. "I like being right more than anything." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pollste...keout-podcast/
Five thirty eight is very likely overestimating Kelly's lead.
However, I've seen some conservatives boast about the "Trafalgar Poll". I'll just say that Trafalgar had Trump winning both the popular vote and electoral vote in 2020. Actual results were that Biden won the national popular vote by over 4% and the electoral vote by over seventy votes.
Bottom line: Kelly is ahead and likely to win, but probably by under 5%.
538 used OH Predictive Insights +12. Even Trafalgar shows Mark Kelly with +1 which is equal to +10 any other poll.
538 has a B/C pollster rating on OH Predictive Insights and A- rating on Trafalgar.
Anyway, I don't think endless running of Kelly ads that contain the splicing of out of context videos on Blake Masters is eliminating him from the race at this point. Masters is much better at debating than McSally so I expect a closer Senate race than 2020.
What are Mark Kelly's chief accomplishments over the last 2 years in the Senate? His seems to vote in sync with what Biden/Schumer are telling him to do at close to 100%.
538 has a B/C pollster rating on OH Predictive Insights and A- rating on Trafalgar.
Anyway, I don't think endless running of Kelly ads that contain the splicing of out of context videos on Blake Masters is eliminating him from the race at this point. Masters is much better at debating than McSally so I expect a closer Senate race than 2020.
What are Mark Kelly's chief accomplishments over the last 2 years in the Senate? His seems to vote in sync with what Biden/Schumer are telling him to do at close to 100%.
This is something candidates in the coming years will have to deal with: embarrassing video clips.
Someone my age (64) wouldn't have a problem because back in the day there were no cell phones (Thank god.)
I saw the attack ad showing Masters half naked in front of a bathroom mirror taking a selfie. He was much younger in the clip and there's no indication he had done anything wrong except appear vain.
"I'm a Republican, but if you think I'm going to make a poll look positive for somebody because of what party I'm in, you don't know me very well," Cahaly told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett on this week's episode of "The Takeout" podcast. "I like being right more than anything." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pollste...keout-podcast/
Interesting. Bias doesn't have to be deliberate though. It can simply result from listening too much to sources that tell you what you want to hear, i.e. "confirmation bias".
What sealed it for me was the Trafalgar was the only poll that said Trump would win in 2020. I can't pay too much attention to someone like that.
Interesting. Bias doesn't have to be deliberate though. It can simply result from listening too much to sources that tell you what you want to hear, i.e. "confirmation bias".
What sealed it for me was the Trafalgar was the only poll that said Trump would win in 2020. I can't pay too much attention to someone like that.
LOL @ you lecturing anyone else on "confirmation bias."
LOL @ you lecturing anyone else on "confirmation bias."
Thanks for the belly laugh.
The difference is I demonstrated the confirmation bias by the results of the Trafalgar poll in the 2020 election. What's your basis for claiming I suffer from that? That I am saying candidates are ahead who lead in every other poll?
This is something candidates in the coming years will have to deal with: embarrassing video clips.
Someone my age (64) wouldn't have a problem because back in the day there were no cell phones (Thank god.)
I saw the attack ad showing Masters half naked in front of a bathroom mirror taking a selfie. He was much younger in the clip and there's no indication he had done anything wrong except appear vain.
Probably sent it to a girl friend but still...
Now days anyone running for office in the future every single video, picture, and audio recording will be dug up from the past. Trump seem to shake off his audio recording about grabbing woman.
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