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Yet, despite spending millions on attack ads everywhere (local TV, cable, YouTube, Roku) Kelly can't break away. Master supposedly has received additional funding and will begin releasing new attack ads. He's within a margin of error and momentum may have shifted away from Kelly.
The polls showing Kelly up by 8 and 12 are bull****. Probably paid for by the Kelly campaign/DNC.
A new poll today for the AZ Republic has Kelly up by 7 and one point shy of a majority. He is leading by 15 among Independents. Kelly will win this election, there is very little doubt about that. His opponent is a complete misfit for Arizona.
A new poll today for the AZ Republic has Kelly up by 7 and one point shy of a majority. He is leading by 15 among Independents. Kelly will win this election, there is very little doubt about that. His opponent is a complete misfit for Arizona.
Cahaly mentions in his interview there are two kinds of Trafalgar polls. Those which Trafalgar pays for (like the ones seen on RCP) and those say a PAC pays them to conduct. If a PAC is paying Trafalgar notes this for the public to see.
Cahaly says there are partisan political pollsters and pollsters who aim to please a paying client.
Hobbs and Mark will win here. I will be voting Red but we have to be realistic. I think the polls are under estimating the Dem support. Mark Kelly is popular in AZ and blake masters is not liked by indies
Hobbs and Mark will win here. I will be voting Red but we have to be realistic. I think the polls are under estimating the Dem support. Mark Kelly is popular in AZ and blake masters is not liked by indies
Cahaly mentions in his interview there are two kinds of Trafalgar polls. Those which Trafalgar pays for (like the ones seen on RCP) and those say a PAC pays them to conduct. If a PAC is paying Trafalgar notes this for the public to see.
Cahaly says there are partisan political pollsters and pollsters who aim to please a paying client.
However, Cahaly says Trafalger is neither.
One of the bigger issues with Trafagler is that they do not release their methodology. They have had some polls on which they were very accurate in the past in which other pollsters have missed. They have also have been off a bit as well. While some might not agree with other pollsters methodology, they at least tend to release what it is
One of the bigger issues with Trafagler is that they do not release their methodology. They have had some polls on which they were very accurate in the past in which other pollsters have missed. They have also have been off a bit as well. While some might not agree with other pollsters methodology, they at least tend to release what it is
All that matters is accuracy. Cahaly makes it clear in his interview the data we see on RCP was paid for by Trafagler. And a sample size of 1000 or more was used. (Cahaly feels anything under 1000 won't work.)
When I see Fields with a 2 point (Trafagler) lead over Masters and another polling outfit with Fields up by 10 something is off. Those two numbers aren't close at all.
So, I look to see if an outside party was involved and the sample size. The recent poll which shows Fields up by 7 over Masters was conducted by Suffolk and likely paid for by someone else (AZ Republic or maybe USA Today.) Sample size 500. https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suff..._marginals.pdf
Anything a pollster puts out today doesn't matter... so why not tell a client what **they want to hear. It's their money. But why doesn't it matter?
Because 538 does not start collecting data in order to grade a polling outfit until 21 days out.
My guess is a majority of the races across the country will become much closer just before the election which is what I saw in 2020.
**I suspect those paying understand the polling data is skewed and that's fine. The idea is to try and influence the public.
One of the bigger issues with Trafagler is that they do not release their methodology. They have had some polls on which they were very accurate in the past in which other pollsters have missed. They have also have been off a bit as well. While some might not agree with other pollsters methodology, they at least tend to release what it is
Robert Cahaly is getting a lot of media attention this election. He scores big in Nov. and I expect even MSNBC will have him on come 2024.
Or the other hand if he flops... he's done. Nate Silver (538) would like nothing better than to bury him.
In AZ and its been a constant wave of Dem ads on tv for months with very few opposing ads. Finally in the last few weeks it has picked up but I still see 3 or 4 Kelly ads for each Masters. And Kelly is really pushing himself as an old fashion i.e. not crazy left wing Democrat. The attack ads on Masters really do make him seem like an hard right winger. People dont like that here :AZ is really a pretty relaxed, middle of the road place which makes me think Kelly is going to easily win. Heck I loath Biden and will vote Masters just to hopefully reduce Dem power but I actually like Kelly a lot more and if it wasn't for wanting to diminish the National power of the Dems I would vote for him.
In AZ and its been a constant wave of Dem ads on tv for months with very few opposing ads. Finally in the last few weeks it has picked up but I still see 3 or 4 Kelly ads for each Masters. And Kelly is really pushing himself as an old fashion i.e. not crazy left wing Democrat. The attack ads on Masters really do make him seem like an hard right winger. People dont like that here :AZ is really a pretty relaxed, middle of the road place which makes me think Kelly is going to easily win. Heck I loath Biden and will vote Masters just to hopefully reduce Dem power but I actually like Kelly a lot more and if it wasn't for wanting to diminish the National power of the Dems I would vote for him.
Mark Kelly might be a nice guy, but he's nothing but a rubber stamp for Joe Biden's failed agenda. He needs to go and I hope he does. That's why I donated to Masters. We'll see what happens.
One of the bigger issues with Trafagler is that they do not release their methodology. They have had some polls on which they were very accurate in the past in which other pollsters have missed. They have also have been off a bit as well. While some might not agree with other pollsters methodology, they at least tend to release what it is
Trafalgar has a pattern of regression to the mean just before the polls open. Whether that is a product of their methodology or simply dishonesty will never be known, but it makes their polling more suspect the further it is from the election date (more than other polls that regress to the mean much earlier on).
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