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You can feel the momentum shifting towards a RED wave. The Biden administration has done nothing to right the ship and abortion wasn't the game changer the BLUES thought it would be. Hard to single issue vote when everything else is burning down around you.
RCP now calling for Republicans to regain the Senate (+2) and an average gain in the house of 21.5 seats going R. I think it will be even better than that and likely double those numbers. Maybe even better than that in the House. A month is a long time for independents and undecideds to see just what they have to do. There are some quality polling outfits showing some "way closer than they should be" races in BLUE states. That's a clue right there.
Nate Silver has also issued his first article backing away from his "no RED wave" confidence which he's been writing about all summer, as I knew he would. He may be a partisan, but at the end of the cycle he wants to be right more than he wants to be loyal. Gotta make a living.
You can feel the momentum shifting towards a RED wave. The Biden administration has done nothing to right the ship and abortion wasn't the game changer the BLUES thought it would be. Hard to single issue vote when everything else is burning down around you.
RCP now calling for Republicans to regain the Senate (+2) and an average gain in the house of 21.5 seats going R. I think it will be even better than that and likely double those numbers. Maybe even better than that in the House. A month is a long time for independents and undecideds to see just what they have to do. There are some quality polling outfits showing some "way closer than they should be" races in BLUE states. That's a clue right there.
Nate Silver has also issued his first article backing away from his "no RED wave" confidence which he's been writing about all summer, as I knew he would. He may be a partisan, but at the end of the cycle he wants to be right more than he wants to be loyal. Gotta make a living.
The day after Trump won I went to the comment section of 538 and his followers were FURIOUS. Yes, Trump had a 27%-28% chance of winning but that wasn't the point. Their complaint was the 538 commentary throughout the year had been saying... forget it Trump wasn't going to win. Has "bottom fallen out?" "Has the dam broke." 538 articles with such titles suggesting the question wasn't if Trump would lose. That was a given. The better question was by how much.
Saw a Hill article that Oz/Fetterman was now a 2 point race.
Hence he’s only willing to debate once , and after mail in voting has already started. The more debates the more of a clown he’ll look, and using his stroke as an excuse is hilarious. If he can campaign he can debate, and using that excuse admits how weak he is. He was lousy in the small town of Braddock and he and his supporters think he’s capable of representing an entire state. Perhaps he’ll just work part-time since he’s so weak
Monmouth Generic Ballot: August: D + 3, End of September: R + 2
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