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The just released daily tracking poll. Read and use as appropriate.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Monday, June 09, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 44%. Last Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% (see recent daily results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a 61.9% chance of winning. Tracking polls are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
The just released daily tracking poll. Read and use as appropriate.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Monday, June 09, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracts 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 50% to 44%. Last Tuesday, just before Obama clinched the nomination, the candidates were tied at 46% (see recent daily results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Obama a 61.9% chance of winning. Tracking polls are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Interesting, what happened to that big edge McCain was supposed to enjoy from Democrats jumping ship to vote for him?
Quote:
Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans
I think Obama gets a bump because of last week, the same way McCain got a bump Obama in March. This tracking poll does not mean anything, lets wait until everyone vote in November, that will be the best poll.
Interesting, what happened to that big edge McCain was supposed to enjoy from Democrats jumping ship to vote for him?
Usually when a candidate secures their party's nomination, one would expect a rather large bump in th epolls. So Obama gets what, 3-4 points. Some bump.
Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama. On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama
What!! McCain more trusted on economy. Look at that chasm on Iraq/Terrorism. Whoops!
Quote:
Fifty percent (50%) of voters say federal spending will increase if Obama is elected and 33% say the same will happen if McCain wins. Forty-five percent (45%) say taxes will increase if there is a President Obama. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say tax hikes will result from a McCain Administration
Hmmm. Most voters vote with their wallet in mind.
Quote:
McCain has said that Obama will offer the nation liberal, big government, solutions. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters agree while 25% disagree and 26% are not sure. Democrats are evenly divided on this point. Thirty-six percent (36%) agree with McCain, 33% disagree, and 31% are not sure. Among unaffiliated voters, 48% agree and 24% do not.
Yeah, despite a lot of hollow predictions here that disguntled Hillary supporters and other Democrats unhappy with Obama will flock to McCain, the fact is the vast majority of Democrats WILL vote for Obama. Of course there will be some that decide to vote for McCain and some that simply stay home, but the truth of the matter is that that same thing happens in EVERY Presidential election. I read somewhere a while back that 8% of Democrats actually voted for Bush back in 2004 - and that those types of numbers are not at all unusual.
This time around there will likely be more Democrats than that that choose to cross the aisle to vote, but McCain also has that same problem - as well as the fear of an exceptionally low turnout from the Republican side (this is probably his biggest single challenge).
All, in all, I'm still predicting a major victory by Obama (and the Democrats in general). There are just too many things going against the Republicans this time around including:
1) A troubled economy (skyrocketing energy costs - leading to higher prices for everything (including food), A crashing housing market resulting in large losses of equitity for many Americans, A general rising fear of potential layoffs, An unstable stock market resulting in massive losses among folk's 401 K programs etc, An extremely weak dollar - helping to fuel general inflation). Though some may argue (with some truth) that the President has only limited control and responsibility for the economy, the fact is, Americans inevitable credit the sitting President (and by extension HIS party) for a good economy and blame the sitting President (and again, by extension HIS party - not Congress) for a bad economy.
2) A general lack of enthusiam by Republicans for their candidate as well as a general feeling fo disgust for the Party by (1: Financial Conservatives - who feel betrayed by the enormous fiscal irresponsiblity of both the Republicans in Congress and the President. 2: The Religious Right - who feel they have been used by the NeoCons then cast aside). This general malaise on the Republican side has resulted in very low turnouts for the Republican Primaries and doesn't bode well for a big turnout in November for the General Election. Compare this with the MASSIVE turnouts the Democrats have been getting and the enormous enthusiam they've had for their candidates.
3) The general swing of the country back towards traditional Democratic views. An example of this is the increased awareness of the environment. Part of this is led by increased awareness (and belief in) Global Warming, and part by the "in your face" rise in energy prices (impossible to ignore). Consider for example the overwhelming presence of "all things green" in advertisement of virtually EVERY product nowadays. Now, you may argue that this is simply a fad being pushed by the advertisers - and you would be partially true in that - but the fact is, advertising firms spent billions of dollars trying to gage the mood of the country so that they can adjust their advertising accordingly and the very fact that there is such emphasis on "all things green" is pretty good evidence that they've judged the country to care about that issue - and they are pretty good at judging those trends. And of course when most folks think of the Environmental Movement, it's not generally the Republicans who come to mind.
4) A general unhappiness with the normal mode of operation in DC. Folks here snear at Obama's "Change" theme but the fact is, he's tapped into the central focus that almost everyone agrees on. There is of course plenty of disagreement on what the nature of that change should be, but FEW folks out there are urging a retention of the status quo. By usurping the "Change" idea for his campaign, Obama cleverly tapped into THE major focus of this coming election - and since McCain is of the same party as the sitting President, "Change" tends to draw folks away from him and towards Obama - in spite of McCains feeble attempt to tap into "Change" himself.
5) Two long and expensive wars. Most folks agree on the need for our presence in Afghanistan, but Iraq of course is whole 'nother story. FINALLY now, it appears things are improving considerably in Iraq, but the fact of the matter is that it's taken far too many lives, far too much money, and far too long timewise. Bush was too slow to adapt the deteriorating conditions in that country and as a result, the American people have largely lost their taste for it. McCain is of course strongly tied to Bush's stand on Iraq and will suffer accordingly.
All in all, NONE of this bodes will for the Republicans in November and despite protestations and chest-thumping from Right-Wing posters here, the Republican leadership (who know FAR BETTER their situation than anyone on THIS board) have warned repeatedly of disaster in November.
And remember, this is coming from the folks who are supposed to be team cheerleaders and boosters. When THEY predict tough times ahead for the Republicans, then you KNOW a blowout is coming.
So, don't let the supposed "confidence" of the Right-Wing posters on this board fool you. They are merely trying foster discontent in the Democratic ranks (as if their puny efforts to sway the hundred or so regular posters on this board will amount to a hill of beans - LOL), and they are plenty frightened (or they should be at least) by the vertitable tsunami coming at them in November. Chances are pretty darned good that the Democrats will sweep in the General Election - consolidating their control of both the Senate and the House and taking back the Presidency.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 06-09-2008 at 10:21 AM..
Geez - with all the horrible economic news, and the horrible Iraq news, and the horrible Gas news and the horrible Home market news - Obama SHOULD be leading by 20-30 points. In fact, I have heard some democrats/pundits say just that.
Geez - with all the horrible economic news, and the horrible Iraq news, and the horrible Gas news and the horrible Home market news - Obama SHOULD be leading by 20-30 points. In fact, I have heard some democrats/pundits say just that.
It has them worried.
[i] am not sure the Democrats said that I know the commentators on CNN keep asking them if they are worried.
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