Obama still beating McCain in battleground state polling. (Al Gore, voters, Democrats)
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As people have been stressing, LOOK at the state polls not the popular vote poll. At the absolute height of McCain's convention bounce, he's TIED in Florida and losing Colorado. If McCain looses Florida, it's over for him.
In my opinion, most of the surge in popular polls for McCain is the result of red states turning redder. If he got millions more Republicans in the bible belt voting for him and is up in the polls by 5+ points, he could still LOSE the election because they will remain red states, same thing goes for Obama.
Fox/Rasmussen Polls (taken on Sunday)
Colorado
Obama 49
McCain 46
Florida
Obama 48
McCain 48
Ohio
McCain 51
Obama 44
Pennsylvania
Obama 47
McCain 45
Virginia
McCain 49
Obama 47
New Mexico
Obama 50
McCain 36
If Obama is up in Michigan and Pennsylvania at McCain's peak, McCain is extremely unlikely to win them as the tipping point state that makes the difference.
Point is, you Democrats and Republicans need to calm down. It's a very tight race and McCain has just wrapped up his convention and now he won because he's up a few points? Same with you Democrats claiming victory a week ago when Obama was up by 8+.
Here is the thing. Obama leads by double digits in New Mexico and Iowa so its safe to say those will turn blue in 2008. Bush won those two states solidly in 2004. Obama has more options to win than John McCain. Based on the states thats in the democratic column, all Obama needs is Virginia (which is tied) and hes the next president. If Obama just gets Florida or Ohio he is the next president. Another way he could win is picking up Colorado and one other state. Obama is leading in Colorado but he also is leading in Nevada. Colorado and Nevada can give Obama the presidency. Obama has already changed the political map and it no longer looks like it did in 2000 and 2004. Popular vote national polls dont matter. Remember Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 but he didnt win the electoral vote. Even after McCain's convention bounce, it hasnt effected the battleground states where Obama has an edge in most. Like EU LP said, all it did was made red states more red. But I cant stress enough FOCUS ON THE ELECTORAL MAP. If I were Obama, the two states I would put most of my resources in is Ohio and Colorado.
looking at the percentage of republican votes Obama is getting, Obama's best chance is probabally winning Colorado and Nevada to win the presidency. 10% of republicans in Colorado (after palin convention bounce) will be voting for Obama. That number is one reason why Obama is ahead in what is traditionally a red state. Another reason Obama is ahead in Colorado is that he is gettingt 52% percent of independents/other parties in the state. Independents still favor Obama even after the republican convention. That trend doesnt appear to be changing.
One thing you are forgetting. Rasmussen weights his polls about +10 in the democrats favor. So if the race is tied or close, obama appears to be losing democrat voters.
Where are you getting that NM poll? Last one done was 53-40 Obama before the GOP convention.
Here is the thing. Obama leads by double digits in New Mexico and Iowa so its safe to say those will turn blue in 2008. Bush won those two states solidly in 2004. Obama has more options to win than John McCain. Based on the states thats in the democratic column, all Obama needs is Virginia (which is tied) and hes the next president. If Obama just gets Florida or Ohio he is the next president. Another way he could win is picking up Colorado and one other state. Obama is leading in Colorado but he also is leading in Nevada. Colorado and Nevada can give Obama the presidency. Obama has already changed the political map and it no longer looks like it did in 2000 and 2004. Popular vote national polls dont matter. Remember Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 but he didnt win the electoral vote. Even after McCain's convention bounce, it hasnt effected the battleground states where Obama has an edge in most. Like EU LP said, all it did was made red states more red. But I cant stress enough FOCUS ON THE ELECTORAL MAP. If I were Obama, the two states I would put most of my resources in is Ohio and Colorado.
LOL you are setting yourself up for a HARD disappointment. DONT DO IT Because I wont be wiping your tears... LOL Dont underestimate the power of Obamatrons!!!
Independents, women and blacks are going to decide this election and Obama leads in ALL three demographics. There arent enough republicans to overtake that.
One thing you are forgetting. Rasmussen weights his polls about +10 in the democrats favor. So if the race is tied or close, obama appears to be losing democrat voters.
Where are you getting that NM poll? Last one done was 53-40 Obama before the GOP convention.
Historically, Rasmussen has been one of the most accurate polls of all.
As people have been stressing, LOOK at the state polls not the popular vote poll. At the absolute height of McCain's convention bounce, he's TIED in Florida and losing Colorado. If McCain looses Florida, it's over for him.
In my opinion, most of the surge in popular polls for McCain is the result of red states turning redder. If he got millions more Republicans in the bible belt voting for him and is up in the polls by 5+ points, he could still LOSE the election because they will remain red states, same thing goes for Obama.
Fox/Rasmussen Polls (taken on Sunday)
Colorado
Obama 49
McCain 46
Florida
Obama 48
McCain 48
Ohio
McCain 51
Obama 44
Pennsylvania
Obama 47
McCain 45
Virginia
McCain 49
Obama 47
New Mexico
Obama 50
McCain 36
If Obama is up in Michigan and Pennsylvania at McCain's peak, McCain is extremely unlikely to win them as the tipping point state that makes the difference.
Point is, you Democrats and Republicans need to calm down. It's a very tight race and McCain has just wrapped up his convention and now he won because he's up a few points? Same with you Democrats claiming victory a week ago when Obama was up by 8+.
The race is just starting.
Two thirds of the country are against the Bush administration!
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