Could this be right? No increase in 1st Time voters (interviews, candidacy)

[sanrene]

No Increase in Proportion of First-Time Voters



How interesting. You would never know that from the media narrative. Of course, they said the same thing in 2004, didn't they?

The current data are based on interviews with more than 2,700 registered voters as part of Oct. 17-19 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Gallup asked these voters a question it had asked in its 2004 election polling: whether this would be the first time they had voted in a presidential election, or whether they had voted for president before. Despite much discussion of the possibility of large numbers of new voters in 2008, the percentage of "first time" voters in Gallup polling this election cycle is no higher than it was at approximately the same time in 2004.
[mod edited for copyright]

[TnHilltopper]

Actually, I think that is an interesting bit of information. I'd like to see the post election analysis to see if this is confirmed, being voter registrations are apparently way higher than even the last election cycle.

[Awesomo.2000]

My post above was to indicate how silly this could actually be. Not that this poll is wrong, but the fact that so many news stories and polls can tell completely differrent things.

sorry for being sarcastic.

[TigerLily24]

I am very suspicious of these numbers, but we shall see.

[janeannwho]

Originally Posted by TnHilltopper

Actually, I think that is an interesting bit of information. I'd like to see the post election analysis to see if this is confirmed, being voter registrations are apparently way higher than even the last election cycle.

But wouldn't the swell in previously registered voters also make it the same percentage? For example say last year you 100 new voters and 1000 voters who had previously voted. you would have 10 to 1 ratio
now this election you have 200 new voters and 2000 previous voters also come out, you still have 10 to 1 ratio but you have increased your new voters. Now if in the past the normal breakdown of new voters is 50 50 D and R, but this time the new voters are 60 -40 D and R, you will see a shift. Just a different way to look at numbers.

[walidm]

Originally Posted by janeannwho

But wouldn't the swell in previously registered voters also make it the same percentage? For example say last year you 100 new voters and 1000 voters who had previously voted. you would have 10 to 1 ratio
now this election you have 200 new voters and 2000 previous voters also come out, you still have 10 to 1 ratio but you have increased your new voters. Now if in the past the normal breakdown of new voters is 50 50 D and R, but this time the new voters are 60 -40 D and R, you will see a shift. Just a different way to look at numbers.

It's a proportion math problem and it's percentage based.

Bottom Line
Each presidential election brings a new wave of voters into the electoral process. And although there is speculation that Obama's candidacy -- given his appeal to young and minority voters -- could bring an unusually large number of first-time voters to the polls this year, the proportion of registered voters who say they will be voting for the first time is no higher than it was in 2004.



"This to some degree may reflect the high turnout in 2004, which was about 10 points higher than it had been in recent elections, and thus would have significantly diminished the available pool of potential first-time voters for the 2008 election. Thus, the fact that the 2008 estimate of first-time voters is no lower than the 2004 estimate may still reflect an impressive influx of new voters this year, even though it may not be proportionately higher than in the last election."
Source

[sanrene]

And although there is speculation

This is key. There is a lot of speculation regarding voting blocks, namely, young, minorities and new voters. I think you see that reflected in the polls regarding why they are all over the place. The pollsters are trying to pin down their guestimates, which is inherently hard to do.