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don't get complacent. I saw those numbers and stayed away from them. Pollsters are adjusting their samples to reflect early voting turnout. Since that is heavy in groups that don't always vote well they are including more of those groups in their sample weight. This pattern needs to remain in place until each and every poll has closed.
The nice thing about today is that even Rasmussen is showing good movement for Obama. We need to keep up the work and hope that the poll averages as they exist TODAY play out in the voting booth.
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.
The nice thing about today is that even Rasmussen is showing good movement for Obama. We need to keep up the work and hope that the poll averages as they exist TODAY play out in the voting booth.
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.
Consistently staying above 50% is the important thing for me. Other than that, I think you're right that we can read too much into polls. Still, it's cheerful news.
But polls don't mean much if you don't vote. I'd actually prefer to see a big dip in the polls--just to battle complacency. Everyone needs to vote!
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama
So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier -- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a best-case scenario also.
With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting. Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not been particularly favorable to Obama
Seriously. Do your part. Are you calling in the evenings? Are you canvassing on the weekends? Are you taking election day off and poll-watching?
Normie's right. This victory needs to be DECISIVE! It's not enough to just win. It needs to be a total smackdown to show the cretins that they can't screw our country and think it'll be OK.
Normie's right. This victory needs to be DECISIVE! It's not enough to just win. It needs to be a total smackdown to show the cretins that they can't screw our country and think it'll be OK.
Yep, I'm looking forward to an Obama victory so decisive that it will amount to complete humiliation of the Republican party. Winning a handful a red states like Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota would be a dream come true.
Yes, we don't just wanna win....We want stomp the GOP into the dirt, kinda how Bush has done w/our money...We are down by 10-15% points and we need EVERYONE to VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
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