Polls- barone sets the record straight (voters, president, Obama, McCain)
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"smartest and most respected guys in politics". Really? Did he tell you that, or did he post it on his wiki page?
Although on re-reading the article I realize it doesn't really say anything! "Higher error rate when female grad students are making the call". OK, so a savvy pollster "corrects" for that error.
He almost tries to say there is a Bradley effect, then gives two examples of why it doesn't exist.
The glaring difference in polling for this election is the increase (since 2004) of cell phone ONLY voters. Although I know several of my cohort (I'm 60) with no land line, I don't know any college students who have a landline. Obama's huge voter registration and GOTV effort has been on college campuses. Not only Obama and Biden, but the "surrogates" and "celebrity endorsers make almost all of their appearances on campuses.
Example: Saracuda came to Loveland CO on Monday, appeared at the "Budweiser Center" (these people have no sense of irony) the next day Joe Biden appears, on the campus at UNC. Yesterday McCain was in Denver (only about 7 colleges there) and appears at (IIRC) the Stock Show Center. If today's paper, and a poster on C-D are to be believed he drew 4,000!
Today a musician was appearing in Boulder along with his wife Laura Dern (I almost blew off my plans to drive the 40 miles, did a short concert then headed to UC, along with Zach Braff. Later today Braff is going to CSU in Ft. Collins. Tomorrow Obama is appearing on campus at CSU.
Does anyone see a patter here? Do you think that all these people on campus who communicate almost exclusively via cell phone and texting, are getting missed by all the polls.
BTW, at every campus rally I've worked for Obama either voter registration, mail in ballot, or "hop on the bus to the polls as you walk out of the auditorium" was pushed. The difference was when the rally occurred.
There is no coincidence involved in this. It is part of the Obama ground game.
well that is a refreshing take on the polls now isn't it...........
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