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You both have to realize that the GDP DID GROW! whether it be 5.6 or 12.3 it still grew. Is'nt that the real point of it all? Granted the 12.3 looks better but even 5.6 still shows signs of improvement. Can we all agreed on that? It is still better than negative numbers or no growth
As of today, the House has 253 Republicans, 177 Democrats, and five vacancies.
Therefore, the Republicans would only need to win 39 Congressional races to take back the House by a margin of 216-214, not counting the five vacancies.
Definitely a much easier task than in 1994; add in an expected surge in voting by senior citizens come November (Obama's attacks on Medicare will really get the seniors out en masse to vote), and the Democrats are in deep trouble, and the problems are bound to skyrocket when the price of gas begins taking off this summer, thanks to the putrid US dollar.
As of today, the House has 253 Republicans, 177 Democrats, and five vacancies.
Therefore, the Republicans would only need to win 39 Congressional races to take back the House by a margin of 216-214, not counting the five vacancies.
Definitely a much easier task than in 1994; add in an expected surge in voting by senior citizens come November (Obama's attacks on Medicare will really get the seniors out en masse to vote), and the Democrats are in deep trouble, and the problems are bound to skyrocket when the price of gas begins taking off this summer, thanks to the putrid US dollar.
Looking at the Generic Ballot, and Party rating polls the GOP doesn't have a chance at that kind of pickup.
In Nov 2009, the dems had a 46-44% advantage. Now it is 47-44 Republicans.
What was the generic ballot on the eve of the Red Tide in 1994?
Tied at 46%.
Now, translating the generic ballot into seats;
At 44% generic ballot for the dems....well, you get the picture. A 60+ seat loss.
A lot of time between now and Nov.
Notice the enthusiasm gap between Rep and Dems in that first Gallup link.
LOL, it doesn't quite work that way, unless you think every single undecided will break to the GOP.....
The Dems had double digit advantages in the Generic Ballot poll in 2006, picked up 31 seats.
Gallup has a 3 point GOP advantage 47-44
WP has a 4 point Dem advantage 48-44
BTW the GOP had a +7 advantage in Gallup and a +11 advantage NBC in te Generic Election Poll right before election Day 1994, were +11 & +13 GOP shortly before that.
Yeah, CNN has R's+3, Quinnipiac has R+5, Gallup DID have D+2, but that has obviously changed, PPP(D) has R+3, Rasmussen R+8.
The point I was making is that in 1994, the GB was basically tied and the GOP had a landslide victory. Given that the R's have a lead now, and if they can carry that through, it might result in the same kind of numbers.
Quote:
With as little as 51% of the two-party vote, Democrats could expect to hold almost all of their current seats (the model would predict 251 Democratic seats held after the election, with a range of 240 to 262). And with as little as 48% of the vote, Democrats could still reasonably be expected to retain the majority of 218 seats (although they could conceivably still lose the majority at this level, given the model's error range).
Considering that the Dems right now are at 44%, translating that into seats by Gallups method would be bad news indeed - a 60+ seat loss. Look at the chart - at 48% they could still retain the majority, at 45% the best prediction by Gallup would be 186 seats, which would be a 67 seat loss.
Quote:
BTW the GOP had a +7 advantage in Gallup and a +11 advantage NBC in te Generic Election Poll right before election Day 1994, were +11 & +13 GOP shortly before that.
Yeah, CNN has R's+3, Quinnipiac has R+5, Gallup DID have D+2, but that has obviously changed, PPP(D) has R+3, Rasmussen R+8.
The point I was making is that in 1994, the GB was basically tied and the GOP had a landslide victory. Given that the R's have a lead now, and if they can carry that through, it might result in the same kind of numbers.
Considering that the Dems right now are at 44%, translating that into seats by Gallups method would be bad news indeed - a 60+ seat loss. Look at the chart - at 48% they could still retain the majority, at 45% the best prediction by Gallup would be 186 seats, which would be a 67 seat loss.
Since the Health Care vote you have four polls,
Favoring the GOP
Rasmussen +8
Gallup +3
Favoring the Dems
WP +4
R2K +6
That comes out to basically even +0.25 GOP taking an average
The 60 loss thing, and 67 loss thing you are coming up with is total BS. Because you are basically pushing every single undecided in the GOP column, which is why its important to look at margin.
Using your chart with the Gallup poll and a 3 point margin, you would generally be looking at 48.5%. 218 being the average for48, 229 for 49. Do splitting that your at something like 223-224. Now that is just using Gallup. If you are taking an average of all the polls, you have a slight GOP margin, so you would put it at a little less than 50% (which is listed at 240), so you would be slightly under that.
Republicans in for a 'Shock' Come November: Jack Welch
As I've said many times here, the economy IS improving (Welch cited many examples where he's seeing significant pickups in spending by the major part of the population that still have jobs - this in turn in help create OTHER jobs) and THAT fact will be the biggest single factor in the upcoming election. As is typical in off-year elections, the party in power WILL likely lose seats, but it won't be that many - almost certainly not enough to change the balance of power.
Watch the video - especially the last 3rd - and REMEMBER, Jack Welch is NOT a Lefty - far from it - he's a confirmed GOP guy with pretty good insight into business and the economy and the pulse of the nation. He's not pleased that the GOP won't sweep in November, but he's calling it as he sees it.
"Democrats will not get "wiped out" of their Congressional seats in the November election, despite the recent passage of the widely unpopular health care reform bill, former CEO of General Electric Jack Welch told CNBC Tuesday.
Because the economy is starting to feel better to those who have jobs, and because the government has given out a number of "freebies" to the public — including health care coverage to those who previously had none — people will likely credit the government with improving the economy, Welch said."
I don't care if you are Left Wing or Right Wing person, anyone with any knowledge of past elections has got to recognize that an improving economy bodes pretty well for the party in power - and by November things will be looking a lot better. We won't be back to healthy (not by a long shot) but we will be well on that road - and for MOST people, things will be looking up.
Ken
I expect that there might be some 3rd party congress people in office come november.
Well, as I said, I DO expect the GOP to make gains this year - as is typically the case in off-year elections (ie for the party out of power to make gains). They'll have to do a lot better than they did in 1994 to take either the House or the Senate - and I don't think that's going to happen.
You'll have to excuse me - in that post I was really talking about 2 different issues - the Congressional Elections this year, and the Presidential elections in 2012. Obama will likely do fine in 2012. The Democrats in Congress not quite so well in 2010.
Ken
It's way too early to say that Obama will do "fine" in 2012. And for the sake of the country, I hope he doesn't do fine.
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