Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This isn't new, but apparently getting worse. Even in casual conversations.
How Russia Silences Dissent
Anyone questioning the war or revealing sympathy with Ukraine — even in a private conversation — is now liable to prosecution in Russia.
No gesture, apparently, is too small. Judges have ruled that simply wearing blue and yellow clothing — the colors of the Ukrainian flag — or painting one’s fingernails blue and yellow can be punished. And there are few safe havens as people increasingly inform on their fellow citizens. In dozens of cases, people were prosecuted after someone reported them for comments they made on the train, in a cafe or in a liquor store. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ensorship.html
Which means, Pootie isn't giving up. He's staying the course and clamping down. He's going to wait it out until Ukraine runs out of fighting men and women.
Russia is destined to collapse by 2030, another USSR implosion where a bunch of states on the edge break away. This is real nosedive in quality of life, more walls around people keeping them in. The fact that they have to do this is indicative of how unpopular the war is. From all indications, everything is a spiral downwards, whether it's demographics, freedom of expression, economic outlook... A country can't continue like that forever, as we saw in 1989. The end result is the second death of the Soviets that Putin is trying to resurrect.
This isn't new, but apparently getting worse. Even in casual conversations.
How Russia Silences Dissent
Anyone questioning the war or revealing sympathy with Ukraine — even in a private conversation — is now liable to prosecution in Russia.
No gesture, apparently, is too small. Judges have ruled that simply wearing blue and yellow clothing — the colors of the Ukrainian flag — or painting one’s fingernails blue and yellow can be punished. And there are few safe havens as people increasingly inform on their fellow citizens. In dozens of cases, people were prosecuted after someone reported them for comments they made on the train, in a cafe or in a liquor store. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ensorship.html
Russia is destined to collapse by 2030, another USSR implosion where a bunch of states on the edge break away. This is real nosedive in quality of life, more walls around people keeping them in. The fact that they have to do this is indicative of how unpopular the war is. From all indications, everything is a spiral downwards, whether it's demographics, freedom of expression, economic outlook... A country can't continue like that forever, as we saw in 1989. The end result is the second death of the Soviets that Putin is trying to resurrect.
I'll believe it when I see it. 2030 isn't that far away. I can't even tell how the Ukraine situation will end up; I sure as heck can't forecast something like another breakup.
And I'll tell you a little secret; some of the border regions know they don't have a sufficient economic base to make it on their own. They get too much in subsidies from Moscow, so they know it's impractical to try to go independent, or to join Mongolia, or something. Even Mongolia's struggling. Leon Musk, btw, just signed a big deal with Mongolia. Other border regions aren't even thinking about about leaving.
And the economic development Moscow has pushed through the southern border areas to increase trade potential with China (selling energy, natural resources, etc.) has pretty much locked those regions up tight into Russia's economic and infrastructure network, even in its current somewhat debilitated state. In fact, it's probably those eastern border regions that are propping up the central economy in Moscow through the various investments in infrastructure and hydro development Pootie made there in his first couple of Presidencies.
The only area that could possibly make a go of breaking away is Yakutia (Sakha Republic), which is Russia's sole source of diamonds, and a major source of gold as well as coal. Russia would fight tooth and nail to prevent Yakutia from walking away from the "Federation". And Moscow did what it could back in the 90's, after Yakutia almost did break away, to install its people in key positions there, to exert more control and quash any separatist dreams.
Can't help but wonder if I'm the only one who has speculated that the massive social and political turmoil in the western world right now is also what has heavily influenced Putin's decision for a war with Ukraine in the east. Something he'd have never have dared doing 10 years ago.
I'll believe it when I see it. 2030 isn't that far away. I can't even tell how the Ukraine situation will end up; I sure as heck can't forecast something like another breakup.
And I'll tell you a little secret; some of the border regions know they don't have a sufficient economic base to make it on their own. They get too much in subsidies from Moscow, so they know it's impractical to try to go independent, or to join Mongolia, or something. Even Mongolia's struggling. Leon Musk, btw, just signed a big deal with Mongolia. Other border regions aren't even thinking about about leaving.
And the economic development Moscow has pushed through the southern border areas to increase trade potential with China (selling energy, natural resources, etc.) has pretty much locked those regions up tight into Russia's economic and infrastructure network, even in its current somewhat debilitated state. In fact, it's probably those eastern border regions that are propping up the central economy in Moscow through the various investments in infrastructure and hydro development Pootie made there in his first couple of Presidencies.
The only area that could possibly make a go of breaking away is Yakutia (Sakha Republic), which is Russia's sole source of diamonds, and a major source of gold as well as coal. Russia would fight tooth and nail to prevent Yakutia from walking away from the "Federation". And Moscow did what it could back in the 90's, after Yakutia almost did break away, to install its people in key positions there, to exert more control and quash any separatist dreams.
It's certainly not set in stone that some sort of breakup will happen. But back in 2020, Russia had a lot more future revenue stream, a military that was ranked 2nd best in the world, and less disgruntled populace. Now, the main region buying their oil and gas is China, which also has vested interest in taking back territory the Russians stole from them in Manchuria. If there is political chaos in Russia, it's not that unreasonable that China would take back some territory, Japan taking back some other territory, and the rest would split off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doughboy1918
Can't help but wonder if I'm the only one who has speculated that the massive social and political turmoil in the western world right now is also what has heavily influenced Putin's decision for a war with Ukraine in the east. Something he'd have never have dared doing 10 years ago.
You're right. The upshot of it is that the crap countries of the world, Russia and Iran, always had cards in their pocket to try to expand their regimes. They've both played their cards now, Russia in Ukraine where they struck when the west was at it's most disorganized, and Iran in Yemen and Gaza, where they had to because Arabs and Israelis were normalizing relations. Neither regime has much more firepower left, so if they can't walk away with obvious victories, they have no bullets left in the chamber to do anything in the 2030s.
This isn't new, but apparently getting worse. Even in casual conversations.
How Russia Silences Dissent
Anyone questioning the war or revealing sympathy with Ukraine — even in a private conversation — is now liable to prosecution in Russia.
No gesture, apparently, is too small. Judges have ruled that simply wearing blue and yellow clothing — the colors of the Ukrainian flag — or painting one’s fingernails blue and yellow can be punished. And there are few safe havens as people increasingly inform on their fellow citizens. In dozens of cases, people were prosecuted after someone reported them for comments they made on the train, in a cafe or in a liquor store. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ensorship.html
No different to anywhere else, especially this place, with its far left leanings. (Of course, it's all pretend.)
It's surprising how, far right, the woke/far left, can be. Also who they will gladly align themselves with.
It's certainly not set in stone that some sort of breakup will happen. But back in 2020, Russia had a lot more future revenue stream, a military that was ranked 2nd best in the world, and less disgruntled populace. Now, the main region buying their oil and gas is China, which also has vested interest in taking back territory the Russians stole from them in Manchuria. If there is political chaos in Russia, it's not that unreasonable that China would take back some territory, Japan taking back some other territory, and the rest would split off.
.
China's not going to try to take back northern Manchuria. Pootie built a new hydro plant in the area during his first regime, and has been selling energy to China from there ever since. And Japan isn't going to invade Russia.
These are dreams Westerners are projecting onto those countries. If I'm proven wrong, you can come back after it happens, and tell me "I told you so". Besides, at worst, what would Japan take? A couple of islands in the Kuriles? Big whoop. I bet some people would love to see Japan invade Sakhalin, but it's not going to happen.
Saying that China is going to make a play to take back outer Manchuria is like saying the US is going to make a play to take back British Columbia (the US used to claim all of Oregon country). Sure both China and US could probably pull it off, but at what cost and for what purpose? It’s much more beneficial for China to keep Russia as an ally since they have veto power in the UN Security Council and despite their pitfalls in Ukraine is still more powerful than China’s other allies, Iran and North Korea. Even as being a mere neutral buffer state Russia still would be of value. It would be a nightmare for China if Russia felt threatened enough to fall into the arms of US/NATO.
If Russia is to loose control of any of their territories it would be Chechnya/Dagestan, and even then they would be held on a short leash like the post Soviet central Asian countries.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
