[vaindioux]

Hi

We are looking to buy a home in Florida in about 4 to 5 years. We currently own our home in Atlanta Georgia.
Everybody tells us "You need to buy now in Florida" but people are funny, there are expenses in having 2 homes, insurance, taxes, HOA, utilities, repairs,mortgage.
I don't see myself spending all that money for an empty home in Florida that I would not use for 5 years beside a week here and there, and I don't want to rent as it's a huge headache.
Do you think homes in Florida overall will still be low 4-5 years from now?
I do understand you don't have a crystal ball but just trying to get Floridians opinions.

Thank-you

Patrick

[newyorker24]

I think the market will be higher than it is now in 5 years, but it will still be very affordable. It depends what you think "low" is.

[bravardmedia]

Florida's criminal-in-chief and many in the state legislature are doing their best to make the state uninhabitable for ordinary citizens. I personally think the real estate market will continue to decline, unless you live next to one of the golf courses planned for the ruination of our state parks.

Still great beaches though!

[TerdFerguson]

Yes. We're 5 years into the downturn and we easily have another 5 to go. Historically real estate downturns are long drawn out affairs. Prices can rise quickly as there is little to no impediment. But it takes much longer for them to fall as you have reluctant sellers who are still holding out and foreclosures that take forever to move through the pipeline.

What's funny is that every single year since 2006 all the "experts" have predicted that we're bottoming and next year prices will rise. And every year they're wrong. We have tons of foreclosures still in the pipeline, increased insurance costs, food and energy inflation, local govt budget crunches, etc. All of this stuff is bearish for housing. In addition we have rates basically at all time record lows and the market still stinks, that's not the sign of a healthy market or one about to turn around.

There's no rush to buy. I can see prices rising maybe for the low end of the market at some point, but the upper end still has room to fall. And over the next 5 years the market will probably go sideways at best. The only exception would be if inflation drags up prices but prices won't rise in real terms.

[tewas]

Time to buy now is fairly good, IF you have cash. To buy a second home just to buy it? Don't do that and wait those 4-5 years when you will be moving. Prices won't rise that much, and if they do, well you will be able to sell your old house for more, thus affording to pay more for a new place.

However if i would have money for a second place, i would get 2/2 condo in one of the highrise buildings or on the beach (depending on your preference)

[SLCPUNK]

Last month was our busiest month in five years. Buyers are coming from the sidelines, often all cash, which will help push the market towards equilibrium. In some areas I think short sales and REOs have actually pushed the prices under a true market value. How long will it be low? Until all the excess inventory is sorted out I'd imagine. There are amazing deals out there right now and I would not expect them to go much lower. The big drop has already occurred, now we're just picking up the pieces and trying to sell off the excess inventory.

[Juan de la O]

Case-Shiller and Calculated Risk can provide solid info [Robert Shiller at Yale will take either email or phone]

Case-Shiller Chart Series: Calculated Risk Chart Gallery

Calculated Risk [Probably best overall RE site]: Calculated Risk

"• On housing inventory from Tom Lawler:

[A]ccording to HousingTracker.net active listings in the week ended May 2nd in the Cape Coral, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa metro areas were down a combined 20.5% from a year ago. For all of the 54 metro areas tracked by HousingTracker (which combined accounted for listings of about 1.1 million), active listings were down 8.1% from a year ago."
---------------------------


Most refused to admit a RE price bubble even existed and I've the feeling that most still have no idea how extreme it was - on avg. FL house prices still have at least another 10-15% to go, which should take a few years.

Good luck but paying relatively close attention will minimize the luck required.

[bentlebee]

In my opinion the housing market values will stay what they are for maybe 6 months and than slowly will go up. Some hard hit areas might take longer but some areas already are seeing less and less empty homes which will result in prices going up slowly.

Remember that many families moved in together...When the economy start to be better they can't wait to get to move out and get their own home...paying less is nice but being 24/7 with family in a small home gets on everybody's nerves...so when that starts to happen people will move.

[Juan de la O]

I should add that many of the Case-Shiller charts are based on three month moving averages.

[seeriously]

Once the foreclosures are sold off then the market will rebound.