[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by SKB

Greenspan had said there was "no national bubble" but "froth" in some local markets and Bernanke said "there is no bubble" but the increases "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households."
The lies are now being revealed.

Do you remember when they were touting the strong job growth in Florida in 2005? I was planning my escape and bestplaces, Forbes and all these other sources said that Florida was the place to be. Made it tough to do research on where to go.

Strong job growth. They said my area was one of the best in the nation. Yeah, construction and jobs at Bob Evans and Walmart. Puh-lease.

[kela]

We are still narrowing down the area in which we would like to seriously start looking for a "winter" (second) home. It's been our dream for many years though not attainable due to the high prices. As we get closer to retirement age (hubby is 43, I'm still under 40), we know that we want to spend most of our retirement somewhere warmer than Michigan. Then come back here to this home for summers.

We have been saving for a down payment and feel we have a substantial enough one to start seriously looking. Our goal is to finance as small a loan as possible, since we already have an existing mortgage on our home here.

With the market on the decline for home sale prices, many short sales and foreclosures does anyone have an idea on if home prices will continue to decline? What do you see that could be factors in improving the housing market in Florida and causing the prices to start going back up? A new President soon, economic boost by the government, etc.,??

I'm sort of feeling antsy in the sense that I feel we may have an opportunity to buy something that normally we probably couldn't afford if the prices were what they were a few years ago. But on the other hand, I'm not sure if I'm jumping the gun and perhaps should wait a year? Maybe even two years? My fear is of course waiting too long and the prices will shoot back up and we'll miss the chance to get a home we can afford.

Now, with that said....I feel awful even posting this question because I know if the prices continue to decline and more foreclosures happen it means people are losing their homes! I truly don't wish that on anyone. But I can't control it either ): I know I sound like I'm speaking two languages here and standing on both sides of this fence. But at the same time, the only way we will be able to afford a second home and hopefully be able to manage the tax/insurance costs in Florida is to buy a home at the lowest price we can.

I know no one has a crystal ball and can tell me with 100% certainty that this downward trend in prices will continue, but maybe you can share with me where I might keep an eye on it via research online?

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by kela

We are still narrowing down the area in which we would like to seriously start looking for a "winter" (second) home. It's been our dream for many years though not attainable due to the high prices. As we get closer to retirement age (hubby is 43, I'm still under 40), we know that we want to spend most of our retirement somewhere warmer than Michigan. Then come back here to this home for summers.

We have been saving for a down payment and feel we have a substantial enough one to start seriously looking. Our goal is to finance as small a loan as possible, since we already have an existing mortgage on our home here.

With the market on the decline for home sale prices, many short sales and foreclosures does anyone have an idea on if home prices will continue to decline? What do you see that could be factors in improving the housing market in Florida and causing the prices to start going back up? A new President soon, economic boost by the government, etc.,??

I'm sort of feeling antsy in the sense that I feel we may have an opportunity to buy something that normally we probably couldn't afford if the prices were what they were a few years ago. But on the other hand, I'm not sure if I'm jumping the gun and perhaps should wait a year? Maybe even two years? My fear is of course waiting too long and the prices will shoot back up and we'll miss the chance to get a home we can afford.

Now, with that said....I feel awful even posting this question because I know if the prices continue to decline and more foreclosures happen it means people are losing their homes! I truly don't wish that on anyone. But I can't control it either ): I know I sound like I'm speaking two languages here and standing on both sides of this fence. But at the same time, the only way we will be able to afford a second home and hopefully be able to manage the tax/insurance costs in Florida is to buy a home at the lowest price we can.

I know no one has a crystal ball and can tell me with 100% certainty that this downward trend in prices will continue, but maybe you can share with me where I might keep an eye on it via research online?

We all bat around these questions on this forum as you have seen. The truth is NO ONE KNOWS what will happen - not for sure - everyone is just making their educated guess.

One thing to consider is where you want to buy. Some areas are declining more and faster than others and have a ways to go. Other towns in Florida never "boomed" that much to begin with and are near their bottom. And even within any individual town, there are neighborhoods that continue to appreciate (or at least NOT lose value) and others where you can get a steal. You will have to do your research in the area you like, and then buy when you can afford it. PLEASE do not take anyone's advice here too seriously, they do not have a crystal ball, as I said, everyone just shares their opinion and many of us disagree on the answers either way. From what I can gather, areas of South Florida and SW Florida are falling quite a bit, Tampa is coming down, and not sure about Orlando. But I think north Florida is probably nearer their bottom as is Lakeland and Polk County, where I live. Hope this helps a little bit.

Good luck to you.

[hiknapster]

I don't have a crystal ball, either. Sorry!

However, if you are not yet 40 I would definitely sit back and watch as things shake out. You may be antsy but I don't really see any reason for it. Take that money and invest it in a Roth, or something. Does your company have a matching 401K plan? How about T-bills or gold? See if your company offers free financial advice from an outside party.

Watch your money grow and you'll feel like you are at least doing something.

I think the best possible advice I can give would be to go to economic website such as CNBC or MarketWatch, to name a few, and monitor the news. That will at least give you the ability to watch the economic situation.

[Hero]

Kela are you looking for a SFH or a condo?

For SFH, the yard will be hard to maintain if you're gone for half the year. I've seen yards get wild pretty fast in this florida weather.

With the tightened lending standards and huge inventory in florida, once prices bottom out, you will have several months to decide if it's truly bottom.

SFH usually follow the trend of condos with a lag of couple months. I'd keep an eye on condos, new constructions, and foreclosures as they are more realistic than current sellers.

I know no one has a crystal ball and can tell me with 100% certainty that this downward trend in prices will continue, but maybe you can share with me where I might keep an eye on it via research online?

I find these websites (all free) very helpful and follow them regularly:
craigslist org
zillow com
housingtracker net
ziprealty com
realtytrac com (to get all features there is a membership fee which I opted not to buy)

Trulia: did not find that helpful found ziprealty to be much better

Share with me your favorite websites if you have any

[lostbuyer]

If you like falling knives I would say now is a great time to buy otherwise,I say wait at least till summer of 09,housingbubbleblog.com is my favorite blog to keep up with the markets ,all the information is usually ahead of mainstream media by months,I mean they were calling the bubble a bubble years before any major network ever admited we had one,same with the credit crunch,last year they predicted more foreclosures than sales in certain markets and guess what ?? last month the whole state of california combined had more foreclosures than sales,same thing with miami,look for lee county to join that party in the next couple of months,oh and for the record polk county is no where near the bottom.

[waiting]

[quote]

Originally Posted by tallrick

Real estate is a historically bad investment, no way around that. Only the weak economy from 1980-2007 has made it seem like a good one.

Then if from 1980-2007 houses generally went up in value, then historically,
houses are a good investment. This I know from personal experience.
Experience that spans that amount of time and several houses that all went up in considerable value.
You slam housing as an investment and then SUVs. Both are a useable commodity and an economical SUV does get good gas milage and can
be used as a truck.
I don't believe snowbirds and retirees have destroyed Florida at all!
You sound incrediably bitter. If anything, they have helped bring progress
and business i.e. prosperity to Florida.
As for the housing market, people can wait out the housing down turn and the majority are doing just that.

Economist: Florida Housing Market Will Rebound in 2008-2009 - Florida Home Loan (http://www.floridahomeloan.com/2007/05/economist-florida-housing-market-will-rebound-in-2008-2009.html - broken link)

We may not have to wait long....

[lostbuyer]

whats with economists and this rebound crap?this isnt basketball,and if people are looking for a recovery then look no further this crash is it,people just dont understand these things as their retirement,get rich quick-scheme,saviness,ect...wont allow them to understand it,comprehending this would mean no payday,the bottom will be reached and then we will have stability in the markets not rebound,not recovery..so people need to look for another scam to get rich off of.because real estate will go back to being housing for people,sorry wanna-be self proclaimed "real estate moguls"

[waiting]

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

whats with economists and this rebound crap?this isnt basketball,and if people are looking for a recovery then look no further this crash is it,people just dont understand these things as their retirement,get rich quick-scheme,saviness,ect...wont allow them to understand it,comprehending this would mean no payday,the bottom will be reached and then we will have stability in the markets not rebound,not recovery..so people need to look for another scam to get rich off of.because real estate will go back to being housing for people,sorry wanna-be self proclaimed "real estate moguls"

OMG, you sound as though if even anyone dares mention that scary word
>>>>>rebound>>>>>you'd lose it.
Calm down. I'm suggesting it's been a good investment from the 1970s to 2000 for me. A private citizen and home owner.
And who the hell are you? You have some sure fired crystal ball reading that's better then anyone else???
What's your dog in this fight?
Are you a renter that is waiting for the housing market to sink so low that you get a house with a bowl of soup?
There seems to be a gang on this Florida thread that wants the housing market to go south and stay south.
Sorry I'm not buying your voodoo.

[lostbuyer]

no dog in the fight,I also own a couple propeties,all bought pre-bubble,sold some during the bubble,might buy a house after the crash,its just a topic I find interesting and like discussing,but yes I would like to see prices drop ridiculously low for the sake of people I know that cant afford at these prices,and for the sake of future generations,and genuine first time buyers,I dont have a crystal ball just common sense and mountains of evidence and statistics that suggest further price drops..