[kidyankee764]

There’s a thread like this in CT and it’s probably the most popular thread on that forum. I figured FL could use a good economic climate discussion. Consider this a place for residents, snowbirds, and visitors to discuss economic impact to the state, positive and negative.

First, a little concerning, is the lower growth rate. According to FOX Business, the growth rate was 1.38% since April of 2020, and noted that while home sales are booming, it’s primarily the luxury home market [under 500k] lessened, while over 500k soared, with sales over $2m soaring 62%. This tells me the exodus of people are working class, and the incoming are wealthy. The potential growing of the income gap is concerning with middle class leaving. But according to this, http://https://www.google.com/amp/s/...-cities-6/amp/, FL metros dominate the list of fastest growing metros.

Businesses seem to be relocating here and FL ranks 8 for fiscal stability (http://https://www.usnews.com/news/b...scal-stability. And as of yesterday, Subway’s CEO announced they’ll be packing up and moving a number of their employees to Miami, which could spell trouble for the future of their roots in CT.

What’s everyone’s take on the future economy of FL?

[boy3365]

Florida's business trends seem to mirror its residential trends. Attract already successful businesses from other places as opposed to having home grown corporations just like people come to Florida to preserve the big money they spent 20 years making somewhere else. Aside from the Georgia film industry, are there any other US metros or states that experienced massive economic growth by poaching companies or industries from other states? I'm genuinely curious. Did Georgia really do that? Or was their industry actually home grown in part by Atlanta kind of being "Black Hollywood?"

https://www.self.inc/blog/best-payin...-college-grads

According to the link above and contrary to popular opinion on this forum, Florida's three largest metros are in the bottom ten of 50 for the lowest-paid metros when adjusting for lower cost of living. Jacksonville managed to be 33 on this list.

Individual cities are doing a good job of trying to build environments that support the growth of small businesses that could someday become big businesses. We just have to hope that a few of these end up winning that game, becoming big businesses, and staying in Florida.

Then you have the chicken or egg argument of whether beefed up universities attract businesses or the presence of several large businesses causes the universities to be beefed up. What would San Francisco be without Berkeley and Stanford and vice versa?

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by boy3365

Florida's business trends seem to mirror its residential trends. Attract already successful businesses from other places as opposed to having home grown corporations just like people come to Florida to preserve the big money they spent 20 years making somewhere else. Aside from the Georgia film industry, are there any other US metros or states that experienced massive economic growth by poaching companies or industries from other states? I'm genuinely curious. Did Georgia really do that? Or was their industry actually home grown in part by Atlanta kind of being "Black Hollywood?"

https://www.self.inc/blog/best-payin...-college-grads

According to the link above and contrary to popular opinion on this forum, Florida's three largest metros are in the bottom ten of 50 for the lowest-paid metros when adjusting for lower cost of living. Jacksonville managed to be 33 on this list.

Individual cities are doing a good job of trying to build environments that support the growth of small businesses that could someday become big businesses. We just have to hope that a few of these end up winning that game, becoming big businesses, and staying in Florida.

Then you have the chicken or egg argument of whether beefed up universities attract businesses or the presence of several large businesses causes the universities to be beefed up. What would San Francisco be without Berkeley and Stanford and vice versa?

I think you summed it up nicely. The key you pointed out to is already established companies moving to fl.

The other growth is smaller, new businesses.

I know right now I see lots of small retail closing up all over. I see lots of vacant places for rent.

The local malls down here are hurting. Sarasota Square mall will probably close eventually. Miramar Outletmall the last time I was there a few months ago had quite a number of vacancies. The parent company of Edison Mall and port Charlotte mall is filing for chapter 11. Port Charlotte mall is probably 50 percent vacant btw.

Even the nicer strip malls I notice vacancies in as well.

I think the problem with small businesses, especially retail is the leases. You would think malls and large strip malls which are struggling to retain tenants would lower the rents more to keep and attract new businesses. Instead, they raise rent. It's better renting a unit out for a bit cheaper rather than letting it sit for years not generating cash. I learned this in basic economics classes.

The Publix shopping center near me has 3 vacant stores despite being a very busy location. One has been vacant for 6 years now.

The other Publix down the road had their shopping center remodeled and is really nice. It still has 3 vacancies.

With Macys closing many more locations you're probably going to see a lot of malls take a nose dive now. With Macys leaving, Sears just about gone, JCpenny leaving malls, the really anchor that's well known that's left is Dillards.

[kidyankee764]

Here’s an article in today’s SunSentinel about the restauranteurs from NY/NJ ditching the city and opening up shop in FL, primarily SFL. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/enterta...outputType=amp

One important thing to note in the article is a local realtor to Palm Beach County stating 90% of all RE transactions are to NYers.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Here’s an article in today’s SunSentinel about the restauranteurs from NY/NJ ditching the city and opening up shop in FL, primarily SFL. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/enterta...outputType=amp

One important thing to note in the article is a local realtor to Palm Beach County stating 90% of all RE transactions are to NYers.

Fine with me LOL. Keep them over on the east coast and drive up the values in West Palm.

[beach43ofus]

Florida's service-based economy will continue to grow, mostly due to the net influx of cash retirees bring here from points North.

Other trends favoring Florida's continued economic growth:

-The weather is predicted to continue to be warmer here in the Winter months than most other places, which = tourism $'s

-The water & beaches here are nicer than most places up North for more months out of the year, & that atrracts $'s.

-We have not yet eclisped the wave of baby boomer's reaching retirement age.

-Work from home is proliferating, so more people can work from anywhere, so they can move to Florida now.

-Florida is the #1 place Americans want to move to.

-Florida is a low tax state, and that is expected to continue.

-Florida's cost of living is way below many of the major metro's people are fleeing up North.

-Florida is beginning to attract large financial firms from New York, & that trend is expected to continue.

-Florida's higher education system is highly ranked, & that will continue to bring college students into Florida.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Florida's service-based economy will continue to grow, mostly due to the net influx of cash retirees bring here from points North.

Other trends favoring Florida's continued economic growth:

-The weather is predicted to continue to be warmer here in the Winter months than most other places, which = tourism $'s

-The water & beaches here are nicer than most places up North for more months out of the year, & that atrracts $'s.

-We have not yet eclisped the wave of baby boomer's reaching retirement age.

-Work from home is proliferating, so more people can work from anywhere, so they can move to Florida now.

-Florida is the #1 place Americans want to move to.

-Florida is a low tax state, and that is expected to continue.

-Florida's cost of living is way below many of the major metro's people are fleeing up North.

-Florida is beginning to attract large financial firms from New York, & that trend is expected to continue.

-Florida's higher education system is highly ranked, & that will continue to bring college students into Florida.

Places like the Northeast it's cheaper. But places like Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi it's cheaper to live.

The problem is with service based economy it's the first to tank when the economy is bad. Look at what happened with Corona and Disney, Universal, hotels and restaurants that caused the unemployment system to be flooded. Those jobs typically pay lower.

Here in Punta Gorda we are still feelings the effects of it with Alligent Airlines. It cost us that hotel they built. They lost so much money that they stopped production on that hotel for at least 18 months. Now it's just a huge eye sore sitting by the bridge.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Places like the Northeast it's cheaper. But places like Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi it's cheaper to live.

The problem is with service based economy it's the first to tank when the economy is bad. Look at what happened with Corona and Disney, Universal, hotels and restaurants that caused the unemployment system to be flooded. Those jobs typically pay lower.

Here in Punta Gorda we are still feelings the effects of it with Alligent Airlines. It cost us that hotel they built. They lost so much money that they stopped production on that hotel for at least 18 months. Now it's just a huge eye sore sitting by the bridge.

Orange County (Orlando) alone is projected to get $270 million from the latest stimulus. Osceola (Kissimmee) will get about $72 million. The state has a projected $2.1 billion budget shortfall. California appears to have a $30 billion surplus (???) and NY is $15 billion in the hole. So, it's not necessarily a partisan remark.

We will recover just like we did after 9/11, but leaders must focus on increasing economic diversity instead of seemingly only milking the tourism cow.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by boy3365

Orange County (Orlando) alone is projected to get $270 million from the latest stimulus. Osceola (Kissimmee) will get about $72 million. The state has a projected $2.1 billion budget shortfall. California appears to have a $30 billion surplus (???) and NY is $15 billion in the hole. So, it's not necessarily a partisan remark.

We will recover just like we did after 9/11, but leaders must focus on increasing economic diversity instead of seemingly only milking the tourism cow.

That's a good point. IMO the shutdowns should have never taken place. 1957 and 1968 no shutdowns and life went on. It really did a number on the economy.

That's the whole problem. The government has to keep printing funny money to prop everything up. After all they shut things down.

California has a lot more problems though. It's a liberal nightmare. However at least California has a strong tech sector and doesn't just rely on tourism like FL mainly does.

As I posted before WHEN FL gets a large cat5 hurricane that hits somewhere like Miami then crosses over to the Gulf and turns north causing severe damage to SEFL and a lot of damage on up to Tampa, this state is going to be hurricane bad.

I remember the forecast models with Dorian was having it hit around Miami and slowly moving north as a strong and large cat5 for days. If that did happen the economy would have been crushed in FL. Mass homelessness, massive insurance hikes, and an exodus. The Bahamas took the brunt luckily. Just imagine if that was 120 miles more west. A storm like Dorian would take a couple years to rebuild from.

[nep321]

Florida is gradually becoming a more progressive state.

Over 60% of Florida voters recently voted for Amendment 2, which increases the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. It's official. Currently it's $8.65. In September it goes up to $10 and then by $1 per year until it reaches $15 in Sep 2026. After that, it will be benchmarked to inflation. I believe it will have a net positive impact on Florida's economy. This is a HUGE deal, considering how 46% of Floridians make less than $15 an hour. Increasing by $1 a year gives businesses plenty of time to plan and adjust. Not to mention, for businesses, it's only really like an 80 cent increase per year after the federal tax benefit from bigger deductions from paying higher wages. Also, this will increase consumer spending in the state, which means more sales tax revenue for the state.

In 2020, four counties flipped blue in the presidential election. None flipped red.

A number of counties passed sales tax increases, including my home county of Duval, which is now at 7.5%.

What do you think the $15 minimum wage will do for Florida's economy?