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Florida is gradually becoming a more progressive state.
Over 60% of Florida voters recently voted for Amendment 2, which increases the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. It's official. Currently it's $8.65. In September it goes up to $10 and then by $1 per year until it reaches $15 in Sep 2026. After that, it will be benchmarked to inflation. I believe it will have a net positive impact on Florida's economy. This is a HUGE deal, considering how 46% of Floridians make less than $15 an hour. Increasing by $1 a year gives businesses plenty of time to plan and adjust. Not to mention, for businesses, it's only really like an 80 cent increase per year after the federal tax benefit from bigger deductions from paying higher wages. Also, this will increase consumer spending in the state, which means more sales tax revenue for the state.
In 2020, four counties flipped blue in the presidential election. None flipped red.
A number of counties passed sales tax increases, including my home county of Duval, which is now at 7.5%.
What do you think the $15 minimum wage will do for Florida's economy?
I don't think sales tax increase means much.
I'm from Missouri which is a ton more conservative than Florida. Yet when at the local level a sales tax increase is on the ballots the excuse is always for the schools and it always easily passes.
That's a good point. IMO the shutdowns should have never taken place. 1957 and 1968 no shutdowns and life went on. It really did a number on the economy.
That's the whole problem. The government has to keep printing funny money to prop everything up. After all they shut things down.
California has a lot more problems though. It's a liberal nightmare. However at least California has a strong tech sector and doesn't just rely on tourism like FL mainly does.
As I posted before WHEN FL gets a large cat5 hurricane that hits somewhere like Miami then crosses over to the Gulf and turns north causing severe damage to SEFL and a lot of damage on up to Tampa, this state is going to be hurricane bad.
I remember the forecast models with Dorian was having it hit around Miami and slowly moving north as a strong and large cat5 for days. If that did happen the economy would have been crushed in FL. Mass homelessness, massive insurance hikes, and an exodus. The Bahamas took the brunt luckily. Just imagine if that was 120 miles more west. A storm like Dorian would take a couple years to rebuild from.
Yeah. My comment was more in regard to economic diversity than political climate, which is why I mentioned a glowing California budget surplus and a NY budget deficit. Regardless, it is good IMHO to have parties flip every few cycles. The negative sentiments by conservatives about NY, CA, and IL one-party rule are made about the South from many liberals.
We really did dodge a big bullet with Dorian.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321
Florida is gradually becoming a more progressive state.
Over 60% of Florida voters recently voted for Amendment 2, which increases the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. It's official. Currently it's $8.65. In September it goes up to $10 and then by $1 per year until it reaches $15 in Sep 2026. After that, it will be benchmarked to inflation. I believe it will have a net positive impact on Florida's economy. This is a HUGE deal, considering how 46% of Floridians make less than $15 an hour. Increasing by $1 a year gives businesses plenty of time to plan and adjust. Not to mention, for businesses, it's only really like an 80 cent increase per year after the federal tax benefit from bigger deductions from paying higher wages. Also, this will increase consumer spending in the state, which means more sales tax revenue for the state.
In 2020, four counties flipped blue in the presidential election. None flipped red.
A number of counties passed sales tax increases, including my home county of Duval, which is now at 7.5%.
What do you think the $15 minimum wage will do for Florida's economy?
Yes, when issues are put directly on the ballot, Florida has voted more liberal plenty of times. But then they send the other side to Tallahassee, who draft legislation to weaken the reach of the amendments. Is it one of those, "But I like his position on abortion" things?
When it comes to the $15 wage, I think businesses will adapt and adjust. The same way grocers had to adjust to delivery quicker than expected. The same way restaurants had to adjust to 3rd party delivery quicker than expected while getting eaten up by fees. Fees may be lowered. They may go in-house for delivery. New, lower-fee services may be developed. The people may revolt against the gig economy and start going back to the stores and picking up take-out themselves.
Yeah. My comment was more in regard to economic diversity than political climate, which is why I mentioned a glowing California budget surplus and a NY budget deficit. Regardless, it is good IMHO to have parties flip every few cycles. The negative sentiments by conservatives about NY, CA, and IL one-party rule are made about the South from many liberals.
We really did dodge a big bullet with Dorian.
Yes, when issues are put directly on the ballot, Florida has voted more liberal plenty of times. But then they send the other side to Tallahassee, who draft legislation to weaken the reach of the amendments. Is it one of those, "But I like his position on abortion" things?
When it comes to the $15 wage, I think businesses will adapt and adjust. The same way grocers had to adjust to delivery quicker than expected. The same way restaurants had to adjust to 3rd party delivery quicker than expected while getting eaten up by fees. Fees may be lowered. They may go in-house for delivery. New, lower-fee services may be developed. The people may revolt against the gig economy and start going back to the stores and picking up take-out themselves.
IF a storm Dorian's size did hit like I mentioned, how much of an exodus do you think FL would see, especially if insurance went way up and the economy was demolished? I mean, if only Millionaires could afford to live here due to the high insurance cost and destroyed economy.
Hurricane Andrew "could" have been that storm. IF it would have hit 10 miles north and was larger in size.
Andrew was a compact storm. Downtown Miami only got cat2 wind gust at the most. Imagine if it had 165mph sustained winds and gusts to 200 over Miami and Broward County.
A storm like Dorian 185mph winds with gusts to about 225mph it doesn't matter what the building codes are. Things are going to be demolished. No doubt there would be thousands dead too.
How would the government deal with mass homelessness if a 185mph storm cat5 sat over Miami Dade and south FL for two days or moved over FL and up the west coast?
I guess it would be like Katrina and they'd ship them to other places? Like Houston got a bunch of Katrina victims who never returned back.
Arcadia which isn't too far from me still hasn't fully recovered since Charley hit as well. It changed the town.
Just look what happened with Hurricane Michael, the latest Category 5 to make landfall in the U.S. The communities that were devastated by the storm were completely forgotten with the exceptions of Mexico Beach and Panama City. The inland communities between Bonifay and Tallahassee received only a small amount of attention along with Georgia and Southeast Alabama.
Panama City Beach and points westward were completely spared. Had the storm made landfall on those places, it would be an entirely different story.
Just look what happened with Hurricane Michael, the latest Category 5 to make landfall in the U.S. The communities that were devastated by the storm were completely forgotten with the exceptions of Mexico Beach and Panama City. The inland communities between Bonifay and Tallahassee received only a small amount of attention along with Georgia and Southeast Alabama.
Panama City Beach and points westward were completely spared. Had the storm made landfall on those places, it would be an entirely different story.
Michael's core winds were also small in size, smaller than Andrew. The west side of the storm was pretty weak outside of the eyewall. Even Naples got cat2 wind gusts from Andrew despite being about 40 miles from the eyewall and weaker over land.
The far eastern parts of Panama City Beach got hit hard. Panama City had cat2 wind gusts as well but the newer buildings can easily handle that.
Also, that area of FL isn't nearly as population as Orlando on south. A storm like Michael but larger in size would be bad.
It's a huge storm like a Katrina, Rita, Wilma, or Dorian at peak intensity that would change FL. This is a imaginary track I made of a 185mph large cat5 moving at a clip. Imagine the carnage this path would do. It would still be a large cat3 all the way up past tampa. Whole SWFL past tampa cat3 winds and massive surge.
I heard mainly the eastern portion of Panama City got Cat 4 winds from Michael; the wind gradient for the the storm was very sharp so the areas affected by the western side of the storm didn't receive much damage compared to the east. Tallahassee was believed to have gusts in the Cat 1 range with mainly downed trees accounting for the damage. Panama City Beach had Cat 1 conditions, while Destin had 60 mph gusts and Pensacola had 45 mph gusts. Apalachichola, St Marks, and Cedar Key had significant storm surge damage, but wind damage was very low, around high-end tropical storm and low-end hurricane force. There was also quite a bit of flooding and erosion even in Gulf Shores and Dauphin Island, Alabama as well as Citrus and Hernando Counties, FL.
The Cat 5 winds mainly affected Mexico Beach and probably Tyndall AFB. Port St. Joe likely had Cat 3 or 4 conditions. From Tampa-Ft. Myers, gusts were mainly in the 40-45 mph range, but there was one report at Clearwater Beach receiving a gust of 60 mph.
The major hurricane force winds in the inland portions were mainly around Jackson, Calhoun, and the western portions of Liberty and Gadsden County as well as far southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama.
With Andrew, even Ft. Myers had low-end hurricane gusts with areas as far away as Clearwater Beach experiencing gusts as high as 45 mph. Parts of the panhandle experienced beach erosion from the storm.
If we had a very large Cat 4-5 hit Pensacola or Destin in addition to Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the damage would be tremendous.
There were significant economic effects from these two storms. With Andrew, many individuals fled Miami-Dade County and into Broward and Palm Beach Counties, which experienced massive development. Quite a few communities around Homestead were completely abandoned. With Michael, the housing prices in FWB-Destin skyrocketed and quite a few homes in Panama City were abandoned as well. The timber and cotton industries were also devastated.
I heard mainly the eastern portion of Panama City got Cat 4 winds from Michael; the wind gradient for the the storm was very sharp so the areas affected by the western side of the storm didn't receive much damage compared to the east. Tallahassee was believed to have gusts in the Cat 1 range with mainly downed trees accounting for the damage. Panama City Beach had Cat 1 conditions, while Destin had 60 mph gusts and Pensacola had 45 mph gusts. Apalachichola, St Marks, and Cedar Key had significant storm surge damage, but wind damage was very low, around high-end tropical storm and low-end hurricane force. There was also quite a bit of flooding and erosion even in Gulf Shores and Dauphin Island, Alabama as well as Citrus and Hernando Counties, FL.
The Cat 5 winds mainly affected Mexico Beach and probably Tyndall AFB. Port St. Joe likely had Cat 3 or 4 conditions. From Tampa-Ft. Myers, gusts were mainly in the 40-45 mph range, but there was one report at Clearwater Beach receiving a gust of 60 mph.
The major hurricane force winds in the inland portions were mainly around Jackson, Calhoun, and the western portions of Liberty and Gadsden County as well as far southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama.
With Andrew, even Ft. Myers had low-end hurricane gusts with areas as far away as Clearwater Beach experiencing gusts as high as 45 mph. Parts of the panhandle experienced beach erosion from the storm.
If we had a very large Cat 4-5 hit Pensacola or Destin in addition to Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the damage would be tremendous.
There were significant economic effects from these two storms. With Andrew, many individuals fled Miami-Dade County and into Broward and Palm Beach Counties, which experienced massive development. Quite a few communities around Homestead were completely abandoned. With Michael, the housing prices in FWB-Destin skyrocketed and quite a few homes in Panama City were abandoned as well. The timber and cotton industries were also devastated.
On the topic of Katrina, remember the forecast at one point had Katrina hitting around Panama City. Imagine if Katrina was over water another 18 hours and bombed out to cat4 before Miami, then went into the Gulf for a second landfall as a major in Panama City.
Correct about that path. The worst one would be like what I posted. A large cat5 hitting Miami, then exiting around Naples and turning north north west very close to the SWFL coast BUT just enough off shore that it maintains cat 3 intensity. SWFL woudl get major hurricane winds and 15 foot surge. St. Pete and Tampa would get cat3 winds as well.
Another bad storm would be a cat4 or 5 hitting southeast FL, exiting in the Gulf and being a cat4 or cat5 into New Orleans.
Irma was another storm. If it had not crashed into Cuba for 18 hours and instead hit Miami as 150mph and large, the damage would been severe. South of Orlando would really be hurting.
But a large 185mph storm hitting Miami would also cause tons of damage to Broward County. If it took my path I did it would also devastate southwest FL as well so people wouldn't exactly be moving over here as well. I could see Georgia gaining residents then.
If you're into hurricanes look at the period of 1920s thru early 1960s for Florida, especially south FL. If that happened today I don't know what the economy and state would look like south of Tampa. Those were powerful storms. That would cause economic havoc today. back then not a lot of people lived down here.
Florida was lucky in 2004 too. Yes, the state was hit a lot, BUT Frances got dry air at landfall, Jeanne was just starting to rapidly intensify at landfall and ran out of time.
Charley moved out fast and went into lesser populated Charlotte and Desoto counties. Ivan weakend a bit at landfall.
2004 could been a lot worse had those storms been stronger.
future economy?? stressed, and a bubble that will pop in about 2-3 years - overpriced housing market, too many worthless newcomers fleeing elsewhere - inflation, few good jobs, overcrowding.
future economy?? stressed, and a bubble that will pop in about 2-3 years - overpriced housing market, too many worthless newcomers fleeing elsewhere - inflation, few good jobs, overcrowding.
I still think a large cat4 or cat5 hurricane into multiple metro areas of FL is what will cause a huge economic problem. Of course if the economy nationally has another big recession the housing market will crash big like it did in 2008 here.
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