[1insider]

Originally Posted by juliealba

How low do you think Florida prices are going to drop ?
.

We have yet to see the impact on condo values that last year's legislation will have. The increase in fees required to fund mandated inspections and structural reserves will be reflected in condo fees which will domino into demand and selling prices. You can't expect to sell for the same price if your fees just doubled or tripled which I expect in some complexes. We have less than two years before the deadline for compliance but we know condo associations are fans of procrastination so the impact will be pushed forward as long as they can manage to ignore it. The clock is ticking.

[Nerad]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

We paid cash ~5 yrs ago ($550k), despite a poster here who has been warning of a housing collapse for the 6+ yrs I've been active on C-D forums.

I'm glad I ignored his posts, because homes like ours have sold, & are pending for $1.1M-$1.3M! We're in a desireable area, & inventory's still tight.

We could sell in <1 wk, take our $550k+ gain, downsize to take some $'s out, or move to a cheaper location. Or, we can stay. Even if the market drops 50% (very unlikely), we're still up, so the cash we used to buy our current home is very safe.

All of our options are good. Current buyers are not as lucky...they have more risk, so the pay cash or finance, decision is trickier.

Whether to pay cash, or not, depends on many factors & personal preference. It's too complex to declare right, or wrong. Most who can pay cash, do.

5 years ago nobody could have predicted a Worldwide pandemic nor a US Federal Reserve droppings rates to records lows. There is no genius in any of this. My house in NH has more than doubled in value.

As any of the equity goes away so does our purchasing power in FL.

There are always pockets of areas in every State that don’t suffer as much in corrections but the Average Joe is going to watch their housing equity slip away.

[silverct9a]

I live in West Palm Beach and have several friends and family who’ve been beaten by cash offers…I certainly believe this list, well at least WPB being so high.

[silverct9a]

I agree with all of this. I too had several detractors try to convince of some near future housing crash (affluent renters, youngish DINKS living downtown). The outcome? A new construction build with a 2.5% interest rate, closed in 2021. My neighbor across the street, lured by the insane appreciation sold his home (only lived there for 4 months) and doubled his money. Insanity

As long as there is a tight labor market and unemployment remains relatively low, I don’t see foreclosures happening too much. Buyers are qualified

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

We paid cash ~5 yrs ago ($550k), despite a poster here who has been warning of a housing collapse for the 6+ yrs I've been active on C-D forums.

I'm glad I ignored his posts, because homes like ours have sold, & are pending for $1.1M-$1.3M! We're in a desireable area, & inventory's still tight.
We could sell in <1 wk, take our $550k+ gain, downsize to take some $'s out, or move to a cheaper location. Or, we can stay. Even if the market drops 50% (very unlikely), we're still up, so the cash we used to buy our current home is very safe.

All of our options are good. Current buyers are not as lucky...they have more risk, so the pay cash or finance, decision is trickier.

Whether to pay cash, or not, depends on many factors & personal preference. It's too complex to declare right, or wrong. Most who can pay cash, do.

[Nerad]

Originally Posted by silverct9a

I agree with all of this. I too had several detractors try to convince of some near future housing crash (affluent renters, youngish DINKS living downtown). The outcome? A new construction build with a 2.5% interest rate, closed in 2021. My neighbor across the street, lured by the insane appreciation sold his home (only lived there for 4 months) and doubled his money. Insanity

As long as there is a tight labor market and unemployment remains relatively low, I don’t see foreclosures happening too much. Buyers are qualified

Watch what happens…….

[Nerad]

Days on market going back to reality. See Fed data link below.

In my area RE agents seeing most transactions have the usual inspections and contingencies and few of any over market offers. Many reductions on houses that have issues. The only hot market is at the low end and people desperate for housing they can afford vs high rents.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS

[beach43ofus]

If you forecast a falling real estate market for enough years in a row, you'll eventually be right...common sense...no link needed.

[Rick-Blaine1212]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

If you forecast a falling real estate market for enough years in a row, you'll eventually be right...common sense...no link needed.

So the 2008 housing crash happened. I don't think it will happen again within human's ability to recollect. Kind of like Covid and the Spanish flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...ic-history.htm

You seem to be on a lucky run. Have some empathy for others that aren't riding a lucky wave.

[Nerad]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

If you forecast a falling real estate market for enough years in a row, you'll eventually be right...common sense...no link needed.

Every fundamental real estate market indicator lining up for correction.

All the hand waving, gaslighting, or cherry picking of data points won’t make a difference. Housing is a macro economic issue. Individuals who point to specific cases in hot or desirable markets like Miami is not how this will play out.

Housing inventories have increased for 12 straight months, on market has increased considerably. Interest rates 2x and more year on year. Inflation highest in 40 years. It’s actually comical to see RE agents trying to downplay the big picture.

Florida is the #1 state by percentage of second homes. That demand is actually lower than pre pandemic. Market fundamentals already in motion.

There is no guessing to this. It’s already happening.

[skeddy]

Another rate hike will have mortgages up to 7%. Still plenty of cash buyers.