Florida 2nd Home (Tampa: sales, real estate, 2013)

[City Guy997S]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

this bubble is no where near the housing/financial crisis of 2006. you won't see house prices tumble that much again. Safe desirable areas aren't going to drop like a stone in the next recession. they normally don't. 2006 was an anomaly in that regard to drop 25 to 30%.

I disagree. When you see "junk" selling for 100K more than it did 2 years ago then trouble is brewing (see my 2nd post)

Here is a prime example: a 2/2 TRAILER
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...4_M54395-94842

06/18/2019 Sold $149,000 $131 (sq ft)
11/15/2018 Listed $159,000 $140
04/06/2007 Sold $128,500 $113
02/27/2006 Sold $62,500 $55
04/03/1989 Sold $63,500 $56

1989/2006 it sold flat, cracked a home run 6 months later for 128K and then sells again in 2018 for 149K.

County values this place at 88K. Stick frame trailer built in 1985 in Pompano!

Simply insanity for a 34 year old mobile home

[City Guy997S]

Ok, here is another:

2/2 condo on the water (built in 1973).
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1_M59437-05767

Sold for 173K 11 months ago and then sells for 294K? That 121K of "appreciation" will evaporate overnight if the market corrects. Ktichen was new but the rest of the place was dated.


06/17/2019 Sold $294,000 $234
04/08/2019 Price Changed $304,900
03/25/2019 Listed $317,900 $253
05/16/2018 Sold $173,000 $138
12/10/2014 Sold $173,000 $138
10/17/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
05/09/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
08/15/2011 Listed $224,900
03/14/2011 Price Changed $225,000
12/20/2010 Listed $239,900 $191
5/11/1995 Sold $79,500 $63
05/10/1995 Sold $79,500 $63

[BNBR]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

I disagree. When you see "junk" selling for 100K more than it did 2 years ago then trouble is brewing (see my 2nd post)

Here is a prime example: a 2/2 TRAILER
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...4_M54395-94842

06/18/2019 Sold $149,000 $131 (sq ft)
11/15/2018 Listed $159,000 $140
04/06/2007 Sold $128,500 $113
02/27/2006 Sold $62,500 $55
04/03/1989 Sold $63,500 $56

1989/2006 it sold flat, cracked a home run 6 months later for 128K and then sells again in 2018 for 149K.

County values this place at 88K. Stick frame trailer built in 1985 in Pompano!

Simply insanity for a 34 year old mobile home

The value is in the land....

[BNBR]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

Ok, here is another:

2/2 condo on the water (built in 1973).
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1_M59437-05767

Sold for 173K 11 months ago and then sells for 294K? That 121K of "appreciation" will evaporate overnight if the market corrects. Ktichen was new but the rest of the place was dated.


06/17/2019 Sold $294,000 $234
04/08/2019 Price Changed $304,900
03/25/2019 Listed $317,900 $253
05/16/2018 Sold $173,000 $138
12/10/2014 Sold $173,000 $138
10/17/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
05/09/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
08/15/2011 Listed $224,900
03/14/2011 Price Changed $225,000
12/20/2010 Listed $239,900 $191
5/11/1995 Sold $79,500 $63
05/10/1995 Sold $79,500 $63

You don't know what you are talking about. It was snatched up in 2018 as a flip, so it was cheap and renovated. The home value in that community has increased modestly as expected. There is nothing crazy about the prices.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

Ok, here is another:

2/2 condo on the water (built in 1973).
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1_M59437-05767

Sold for 173K 11 months ago and then sells for 294K? That 121K of "appreciation" will evaporate overnight if the market corrects. Ktichen was new but the rest of the place was dated.


06/17/2019 Sold $294,000 $234
04/08/2019 Price Changed $304,900
03/25/2019 Listed $317,900 $253
05/16/2018 Sold $173,000 $138
12/10/2014 Sold $173,000 $138
10/17/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
05/09/2014 Listed $187,000 $149
08/15/2011 Listed $224,900
03/14/2011 Price Changed $225,000
12/20/2010 Listed $239,900 $191
5/11/1995 Sold $79,500 $63
05/10/1995 Sold $79,500 $63

Home prices will go sideways, they ain't going where you may hope they are going like in 2006. Not on your life.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...=mw_latestnews

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by BNBR

You don't know what you are talking about. It was snatched up in 2018 as a flip, so it was cheap and renovated. The home value in that community has increased modestly as expected. There is nothing crazy about the prices.

People waiting around on the sidelines for 2006 are going to be very disappointed. That was a one off due to far too easy credit. There is no housing crisis on the horizon. No way at all. No one reputable is saying that. Corporate debt is bad, yes, but not housing debt.



Sit on the sidelines and you are out and prices are only going to go up with inflation for a while, but they ain't dropping like the above poster is saying.

[BNBR]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

People waiting around on the sidelines for 2006 are going to be very disappointed. That was a one off due to far too easy credit. There is no housing crisis on the horizon. No way at all. No one reputable is saying that. Corporate debt is bad, yes, but not housing debt.



Sit on the sidelines and you are out and prices are only going to go up with inflation for a while, but they ain't dropping like the above poster is saying.

I agree that a crisis is unlikely, but it's not unrealistic to expect a correction. But generally speaking, trying to time the market is rarely a good idea.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by BNBR

I agree that a crisis is unlikely, but it's not unrealistic to expect a correction. But generally speaking, trying to time the market is rarely a good idea.

Agreed. If the original poster wants a second home in Florida do it now with the low interest rates. I always wanted a house here, and I did it and settled in May and have been very pleased with my decision. I love Wilton Manors. I've met my neighbors, they are great and an eclectic group. Two gay guys on one side of me, a retired New York fireman and his wife across the street, an older woman named Susie who says she will pick up any package or watch your house for you, etc. What a great place is Wilton!!


And I think straight families or people really should give Wilton a look. Everyone is welcome there.

[City Guy997S]

Originally Posted by BNBR

You don't know what you are talking about. It was snatched up in 2018 as a flip, so it was cheap and renovated. The home value in that community has increased modestly as expected. There is nothing crazy about the prices.

Renovated? It has a new kitchen but the baths are 20+ years old and I can't even be sure the appliances are new and it is in Deerfield (vs Boca). Boca Bayou can be had for this price point and you don't have to live in a high rise full of old people.

The unit sold was in a 55+ building and there are 3 units for sale, 2 of which are foreclosures. My guess, they were reverse mortgage type deals and the owners died and the lender takes the house over. One was gutted with the start of a remodel. Prices seem high in that building for what you get.

[gixxer1000]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

I disagree. When you see "junk" selling for 100K more than it did 2 years ago then trouble is brewing (see my 2nd post)

Here is a prime example: a 2/2 TRAILER
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...4_M54395-94842

06/18/2019 Sold $149,000 $131 (sq ft)
11/15/2018 Listed $159,000 $140
04/06/2007 Sold $128,500 $113
02/27/2006 Sold $62,500 $55
04/03/1989 Sold $63,500 $56

1989/2006 it sold flat, cracked a home run 6 months later for 128K and then sells again in 2018 for 149K.

County values this place at 88K. Stick frame trailer built in 1985 in Pompano!

Simply insanity for a 34 year old mobile home

That seems to be a pretty poor assessment of this situation. First of all if you just took the original sales price in 1989 and grew it 3% a year for inflation then you would get $154k, So $149 seems about right.

Second using county values it also ridiculous as its just a basis for tax purpose and no real reflection of true value. The county values my house at $400k and it closer to $700k. I've actually been trying to increase the value so I can port a higher savings with the save our homes when I move.

More than likely the house had been neglected and someone bought it in 2006 made some repairs/renovations and flipped it before the last recession.

But from a high level you seem to just be out of place with the real estate market in general. South Florida in general is becoming very unaffordable for middle class families. Imagine being a middle class family looking to purchase a $300k home and you have to compete with people like Mstrlucky74 who are willing to pay that much just to use a house 4 times a year.

There is very high demand for housing around $300k and unfortunately not a lot of new supply. And were growing like gangbusters down here. So if you think you are going to sit on the sidelines and wait for housing at this level to drop significantly you're going to be disappointed. Best case scenario is that housing at that level is flat or drops a few percentage points.