Are RE prices still very low in CC and Ft. Myers Areas? (Cape Coral: to rent, 2nd mortgage)

[JeffTumbarello]

Here is the bubbles of activity within the market
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B03...kl3NWZEYXpGdEE

the bubble is moving to the right. The market is less compressed/defined market as it was in 2011.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Y-O-Y real home prices down 7.5% Per FBN this morning.
Lowest home prices in a decade. Wonder where that recovery is?

The op was regarding ft myers/cape coral this forum is also cape coral/ft myers it has been well documented that prices are up 22% yoy in this market why do you insist on posting what you heard on fbn regarding national new construction and pass it off of being indicative of this market.... it is clear riko equal is a liar

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by KasperFile1

look this is simple.

For any economy to be healthy economy median home price in any given area should run 2.6x - 3.0x median household income. This is what you call a healty economy "organic" it allows for people to own their own home and have enugh to spend into other parts of the economy and live a stress free life . the issue arouse when the banks and the gov started allowing people to borrow 20 x 50x median household income while this helped the banks, realtors ( higher commissions )and gov ( higher taxes ) the people and the business's suffer within the given area because now they're working two jobs just to pay off their mortgages and taxes and not enough to spend.

Median household income in lee is around 27k a year and median home price around 235k. you can see were lee has a ways to go to get back to a healthy economy .

The median income will always be skewed in Cape Coma.
First you have all the rich folks that live here, which throws it off.
Second you have the city employees the majority get paid at twice the median income rate here, but many do not live in Cape Coma, which throws the whole thing off. Most of the citizens of Cape Coma either are on fixed income, or the earn their money outside the city limits of Cape Coma. So the whole thing about median income in Cape Coma comes nowhere near what the real numbers are.
Example
10 individuals at $30,000.00 per year = $300,000.00
1 individual at $1,000,000.00 per year = $1,000,000.00
11 individuals = $1,300,000.00 combined income for that year.
Median income of 11 individuals $1,300,000.00 divided by 11 =
$118,181.81 per individual.

10 people made $30,000.00 each
1 Person made $1,000,000.00
BUT the Median income for all eleven persons is $118,181.81 for each.

Median income is total Bovine Fecal Matter, and meaning less

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

The median income will always be skewed in Cape Coma.
First you have all the rich folks that live here, which throws it off.
Second you have the city employees the majority get paid at twice the median income rate here, but many do not live in Cape Coma, which throws the whole thing off. Most of the citizens of Cape Coma either are on fixed income, or the earn their money outside the city limits of Cape Coma. So the whole thing about median income in Cape Coma comes nowhere near what the real numbers are.
Example
10 individuals at $30,000.00 per year = $300,000.00
1 individual at $1,000,000.00 per year = $1,000,000.00
11 individuals = $1,300,000.00 combined income for that year.
Median income of 11 individuals $1,300,000.00 divided by 11 =
$118,181.81 per individual.

10 people made $30,000.00 each
1 Person made $1,000,000.00
BUT the Median income for all eleven persons is $118,181.81 for each.

Median income is total Bovine Fecal Matter, and meaning less

While i don't agree with his reasons i do agree that median income is less an indicator in lee county. It has a very large 2nd homeowner/ snowbird population plus a lot of homes are bought by millionare investors that don't live there. Just the fact that in the last 3 yrs the 45,000 homes that were bought 2/3 rds were bought with cash. That alone should show that the median is almost irrelevant. I agree that the median income is very important in most areas, lee county is very unique and the normal rules don't seem to apply

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

The median income will always be skewed in Cape Coma.
First you have all the rich folks that live here, which throws it off.
Second you have the city employees the majority get paid at twice the median income rate here, but many do not live in Cape Coma, which throws the whole thing off. Most of the citizens of Cape Coma either are on fixed income, or the earn their money outside the city limits of Cape Coma. So the whole thing about median income in Cape Coma comes nowhere near what the real numbers are.
Example
10 individuals at $30,000.00 per year = $300,000.00
1 individual at $1,000,000.00 per year = $1,000,000.00
11 individuals = $1,300,000.00 combined income for that year.
Median income of 11 individuals $1,300,000.00 divided by 11 =
$118,181.81 per individual.

10 people made $30,000.00 each
1 Person made $1,000,000.00
BUT the Median income for all eleven persons is $118,181.81 for each.

Median income is total Bovine Fecal Matter, and meaning less

The method you describe above is the mean not the median.

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by nhkev

While i don't agree with his reasons i do agree that median income is less an indicator in lee county. It has a very large 2nd homeowner/ snowbird population plus a lot of homes are bought by millionare investors that don't live there. Just the fact that in the last 3 yrs the 45,000 homes that were bought 2/3 rds were bought with cash. That alone should show that the median is almost irrelevant. I agree that the median income is very important in most areas, lee county is very unique and the normal rules don't seem to apply

The median wages you describe can almost be used as a baseline for the economy. With the income from the second homes (vacant by census standards) augmenting that number. Baseline your business model to fit into the median wage demographics and the seasonal surge is a bonus. Very few business people do it this way. Which is why this area has such a boom bust feel to it. The real estate market is tricky in that you have a seasonal and a cyclical market. The cycle drives while the seasonal aspect modifies. If that makes any sense. The key to understand the impact of these numbers to measure the rise in income in real dollars. You have to factor in the rise of M1 within the money supply at each of the points of data.

Those who relocate here from an industrial based economy tend to have a lot of culture shock.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by ;24024215

The method you describe above is the mean not the median.

So what is your point? They are both bogus and utterly meaningless.
It was an extremely simple example to reach the wides possible group.
Median or average income will alway be skewed and meaningless.

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

So what is your point? They are both bogus and utterly meaningless.
It was an extremely simple example to reach the wides possible group.
Median or average income will alway be skewed and meaningless.

So what number do you propose they use?

You need to use both. The median and the average together generally tell the story.

Also most people use the median because a non vetted data set will produce a slightly cleaner number for a median value than an average.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

The median wages you describe can almost be used as a baseline for the economy. With the income from the second homes (vacant by census standards) augmenting that number. Baseline your business model to fit into the median wage demographics and the seasonal surge is a bonus. Very few business people do it this way. Which is why this area has such a boom bust feel to it. The real estate market is tricky in that you have a seasonal and a cyclical market. The cycle drives while the seasonal aspect modifies. If that makes any sense. The key to understand the impact of these numbers to measure the rise in income in real dollars. You have to factor in the rise of M1 within the money supply at each of the points of data.

Those who relocate here from an industrial based economy tend to have a lot of culture shock.

Well you definately said it better than i did. When i was looking to buy and was estimating my risk vs reward i did take median income into account as well as replacement cost and net cash flow of rent so i guess by using the foreign buyers 2nd homeowners as bonus above baseline is more of what i was thinking. Btw the video you put up on youtube march real estate trends was great.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

So what number do you propose they use?

You need to use both. The median and the average together generally tell the story.

Also most people use the median because a non vetted data set will produce a slightly cleaner number for a median value than an average.

The median and the average do not tell the story it is bogus information. A number that reflects the true income of the area.The number of households at $25,000.00 increments per annum, would really open the eyes of the people and show the true structure of the local economy.

The other numbers are just an other way of giving a false picture of what is really going on. In other words Government manipulation.