Are RE prices still very low in CC and Ft. Myers Areas? (Fort Myers: foreclosed, rental)

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Unemployment is up again, which means the housing market will continue to go down.

higher unemployment usually coincides with lower housing prices, but question for you equal when lee county unemployment which was once 14% and started to come down below 9% how come you weren't saying "unemployment is down again which means the housing market will continue to go down" You are always taking everything as the market is crashing whether unemployment is going up or down. which is why no one gives you any credibility. but the median typically goes down during the summer regardless of unemployment because of the style of houses being bought. In season more affluent foreigners and snowbirds, retirees are buying higher end homes and in the summer they are gone and replaced with the first time home buyers, families that are looking to move while kids are on summer break, and investors looking for low priced properties. This will drive the local market more than a one month unemployment report. a lot of businesses higher seasonal help and lay them off during the summer, there is a seasonality to swfl and it's real estate market.

The rise in prices is not going to be straight up so I guess if you keep predicting they will go down you will eventually fall into the category of "even a broken clock is right twice a day"

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Europe is collapsing. Foreign buyers will disappear. Hold on to your shorts it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Europe is collapsing. Foreign buyers will disappear. Hold on to your shorts it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Several of our larger commercial listings is group out of Europe. While it will trap some. There are also people/groups that will need to get their principal out of there.

The foreign buyers thing is a bit over hyped. A lot more money is coming from north the Mason Dixon line and east of the Mississippi. In much larger multiples than the overseas.

I recently did some research on recent Cape Coral land sales and where the buyers are coming from. 33907 and 33914 were the top 2 zips codes from a counts perspective.

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

Several of our larger commercial listings is group out of Europe. While it will trap some. There are also people/groups that will need to get their principal out of there.

The foreign buyers thing is a bit over hyped. A lot more money is coming from north the Mason Dixon line and east of the Mississippi. In much larger multiples than the overseas.

I recently did some research on recent Cape Coral land sales and where the buyers are coming from. 33907 and 33914 were the top 2 zips codes from a counts perspective.

Jeff, did you make a typo or am I reading that wrong?

Thanks!

[alfbroker]

Prices in FM/CC are higher in comparison to other desirable areas of Florida because of the attention brought upon it by top rankings as a great place to retire. They are lower than what they were 5 years ago and are far lower than what they will be in 5 years from now. The bust will turn to boom, despite a US recession in 2013 or 2014 or Europe meltdown. In fact, trouble overseas will continue to add buyers. The US is one of the few countries that taxes worldwide income. With taxes to skyrocket further in Europe, the taxes and economy in the US can look good in comparison. Florida and places specifically like FM/CC that make favorable headlines will benefit.

Predictions are fun, you may disagree but you can't prove me wrong.

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Jeff, did you make a typo or am I reading that wrong?

Thanks!

It shocked me as well. I did the spreadsheet counts twice. Could be just mailing addresses as well

[nhkev]

It is now become an interesting time for inventory. for active single family homes in CC it seems it is holding at 1170. this is such a big difference compared to the 6000 that were available 4 yrs ago, who would have thought it could have reduced so quickly? I wasn't tracking vacant land as closely, but it is getting very close to a time when new construction will pick up. I did contact a builder to see what it would cost to build vs buying existing. When it comes to off water homes it is still less expensive to buy an existing. To build a modest 2000 sq ft home with a pool and cage is being advertised at $199k add to it $6k for vacant land and $12k for well and septic you'd be looking at $217k.

But when it comes to gulf access there are around 200 gulf access lots under $100k and a few under 30k. most of these are far from open water but if you took $60k as a sale price for gulf access lot added the 217k for pool home and 10k for seawall you could be under $300k for a new gulf access pool home. This makes absolute sense because there are very few newer homes with gulf access that are in this price range. So I am now going to shift my focus into gulf access lot inventory.

Right now in cape coral there are 429 active gulf access lots this is likely where it will start. In relation there are 1683 total active vacant lots in CC so roughly 1/4 are gulf access. I would think the developers would be looking to buy the landlocked lots at this time so when existing homes get closer to reproduction costs they already have the inventory to build on.

we are about 6% lower in median than I thought we would have been at. but we are about 1 yr ahead of where I thought inventory levels would be. Inventories are (and equal will love this) being slightly manipulated by the backlog of foreclosures at the courthouse. There are more cases coming in than the court can currently handle so the backlog is growing at about 100 cases per month. So there are about 35 properties for cape coral that are not coming to the market but being kept in limbo. So until the new case filings start to dwindle these properties in limbo cannot come to market.

[JBridge]

a very simple way to determine the market up/down by reading your yearly property tax...

my property tax is still going lower from last year.

how about yours?

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by alfbroker

Prices in FM/CC are higher in comparison to other desirable areas of Florida because of the attention brought upon it by top rankings as a great place to retire. They are lower than what they were 5 years ago and are far lower than what they will be in 5 years from now. The bust will turn to boom, despite a US recession in 2013 or 2014 or Europe meltdown. In fact, trouble overseas will continue to add buyers. The US is one of the few countries that taxes worldwide income. With taxes to skyrocket further in Europe, the taxes and economy in the US can look good in comparison. Florida and places specifically like FM/CC that make favorable headlines will benefit.

Predictions are fun, you may disagree but you can't prove me wrong.

Higher than what areas?

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by JBridge

a very simple way to determine the market up/down by reading your yearly property tax...

my property tax is still going lower from last year.

how about yours?

The tax bill uses old comps.