good morning (not) (Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers: coupons, rental, mortgage)

[JBMallory]

I don't understand, there are people moving here in droves... I park my work truck at a u-haul storage center, and there are more and more out of towners moving and bringing cars and stuff every day

[twobums]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Your fear is well founded......

I've been sitting back for a while, and watching while this so called "recovery" unfolds, locally and across the nation.

All I hear is things are getting better, with nothing of substance to back it up, and the following day after the "good news" the other shoe drops, with "revised numbers" that erase the previous months "good news". It's all smoke, mirrors, and blatant lies.

As 2bums noted, most businessess have experienced a bust this season. I must admit that some of it is certainly due to the horrid weather we have experienced this year. Looks like we may be finally close to catching a break at last. But the season is pretty much all but over at this point.

Look for more business closings, higher unemployment, and more dark doors in SW Florida coming up over the next couple of months. Many that were hanging on by sheer force of willpower will buckle under. I can see it happening around me, and I can even see it from where I am sitting at this point. And the shiet will continue to roll downhill. The cascading failure that IS SW Florida, is NOT done falling yet.

Of course I have nothing but the utmost respect for Hik, but I have to ask....what does one base a "turn of the corner" on in SW FL? Folks from other areas coming in and buying up foreclosed properties at record pace does not a recovery make. Particularly when there are still plenty more foreclosures in the pipeline.

On the contrary, it only shows how far the area has fallen, and continues to fall, as outsiders to the local economy, flock to pick the bones of a failed local economy.

An interesting article this is. Stop to think what the unemployment rate might be here, had all those that packed up and left, hadnt gone anywhere?

There are still plenty of roving mobile mechanics in the area. Not to mention mobile "whatever you need" and "handyman" services. Wonder why? Think overhead in this environment. Everyone is fighting everyone else for the scraps. And come summer, scraps are all there ever was. I wish everyone the best of luck, but coming to SW Florida and opening a "conventional" business, with bricks and mortar location is a very dicey proposition.

Bottom line......Those monthly rent and utility bills keep coming even when the business, and income doesnt.

Once upon a time, I sold real estate. Believe it or not, one of the things I learned was that a positive mental attitude is of utmost importance in the art of sales.(the brokers WILL NOT let you forget that, they even hire "motivational speakers" to give rah rah sessions to the troops) I also learned that failing to "curb my enthusiasm" in tune to the proper context (sales vs. personal decisions) could lead to some less than desireable consequenses from time to time.

Yachtcare has spoken.......

This is a powerful post, yachtcare. I have read it & reread it and every word rings true. Though I am hoping that our local and nat'l economy are at the bottom, there is nothing to support this.

The bad weather coupled with the awful economy could be the start of another freefall, that's how it is in a worst case scenario. Not just one issue is the reason for a terrible outcome.

As far as people moving into Lee County, the few I have spoken with recently are having to move into their family's homes because they are out of luck (& work) up north. They have no other options left.

Yachtcare ~ I can't give you anymore rep points unless I spread it around but you deserve the points for this post.

[hiknapster]

Let's back up.

I said it in another post, in another thread, a bit back, so I'll explain. I am basing the turn around on a few family members in swFL that recently got jobs. It left everyone that wanted a job finally having one, in my family. That is after a very, very, very long period of being out of work.

I didn't base anything on numbers. I don't do that, usually because they are a few months old, if nothing else. Even if they are bogus, it usually constitutes a trend but they are just too old for me.

And if I were looking at numbers, well, the entire study we are discussing in this thread would be a pretty good indicator of how BAD things are in swFlorida.

No. I go by what is going on with my friends, my neighbors, my family.

It was how I was able to correctly predict a bubble in 2005 and move away.

But, the point is moot. I thought snowbird season was the slowest I had ever seen. So those family members may be without a job, soon, when they go back.

I want to speak to JBMallory's point, too. I think he is right. There ARE new families moving in, too, sparked by the housing prices. That can't hurt.

There is going to have to be this delicate balance of new people vs. jobs. Get enough folks down here and the restaurants and stores stay open, creating more jobs, and on and on and on.

The biggest problem with all of that is I am very afraid that the new folks assume there are "real" jobs in the area, and the pay is comprable to whence they came from.

That could be a recipe for disaster.

I don't get the RE reference.

I don't work for the sort of agency that gives "rah-rah" talks. In fact, I am in that office about once a month. I definitely am my own woman. And I happen to be a brutally honest salesperson. If something isn't going to work for you, I'm going to tell you. This isn't my first rodeo. I worked for Galloway and Bill Branch and sold co-ops at The Oaks, of all places.

I don't need tips on how to sell.

What I am trying to do is stay where I am or move back to be near family.

I have to say that my husband has been out for two days, looking for a shop to rent, so the chances of us moving back are very, very slim.

It comes down to schools. It's the reason we moved away in the first place.

And this is a good point to end on. They need to do something about School Choice or people are going to keep moving away.

Oh, and by the way, people are starting to hire up here, so things are changing.

[Compression]

Originally Posted by JBMallory

I don't understand, there are people moving here in droves... I park my work truck at a u-haul storage center, and there are more and more out of towners moving and bringing cars and stuff every day

They always have.......before the "boom" this was, as was most of Florida, a very transient area. People came, stayed long enough to find they couldnt make it here, and then left.

A small percentage fell into the right situation and could make a go of it here. Probably much the same is occuring now. They may be showing up in droves, but you're only seeing the front door. Just as many, give or take a few, are leaving by the back door.

We know the job situation hasnt improved, therefore the old maxim that has been hashed, and rehashed on this forum dozens of times in the past, still stands.........you might move here, but if you HAVE TO WORK for a living, your stay will likely be an abreviated one.......

YC.......

[Compression]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

I don't need tips on how to sell.

Whoa! didnt say you did, nor were any "tips" offered.........

A cautionary tale is all, everyone is welcome to make of it what they will.

YC.......

[hiknapster]

Uh-oh. These darn interwebs, I wasn't mad. Not at all.

I just wanted you to know that I am not one of those rah-rah types.

I think there are two schools of thought on sales. You can be a relentless cheerleader or you can establish an immediate repoire because you are honest.

Anyhoo, I just mean that I am very aware of the warts in swFlorida. Every place has them.

And I think you are correct describing the families that move in and out. I guess this has been going forever. People think that the sun will cure everything and when the money dries up, they move. Or they make a go of it.

[ChrisA70]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

They always have.......before the "boom" this was, as was most of Florida, a very transient area. People came, stayed long enough to find they couldnt make it here, and then left.

A small percentage fell into the right situation and could make a go of it here. Probably much the same is occuring now. They may be showing up in droves, but you're only seeing the front door. Just as many, give or take a few, are leaving by the back door.

We know the job situation hasnt improved, therefore the old maxim that has been hashed, and rehashed on this forum dozens of times in the past, still stands.........you might move here, but if you HAVE TO WORK for a living, your stay will likely be an abreviated one.......

YC.......

3 weeks ago we rented a Uhaul truck at a dealer on Colonial to move my parents. I asked how busy they have been because they had so many trucks. The manager told me they get a lot of trucks in, but almost twice as many out, and he said most are relocating to other parts of FL, the rest to other states, TX being the most.

[Compression]

Originally Posted by twobums

As far as people moving into Lee County, the few I have spoken with recently are having to move into their family's homes because they are out of luck (& work) up north. They have no other options left.

Something else that will put pressure on housing trends, and their value in the future. And lends credence to what 2bums posted here....This article from March 18, 2010 from Pew research....

(Paraphrasing)"by 2008 6.6 million housholds were now considered multigenerational".

And 2008 was at the beginning of this disaster. Wonder where those numbers stand today? Of course information like this is not specific to SW Fl, but since Cape Coral consistently takes top ten honors nation wide for the "worst of" on a national basis, one might assume this is easily applicable to this area.

The Return of the Multi-Generational Family Household - Pew Social & Demographic Trends

Also goes to show that there is NO recovery. Just a slow realignment of the population to what is a new reality, as things get slowly worse for the long term.

Yachtcare has spoken.......

[twobums]

A lower standard of living will be the new normal for the middle class ~ an economist told me once that an upside down wineglass represents our country. The part that holds wine is the lower class, the thin stem is the middle class and the base is the upper class.

Think about it, kinda' scary, isn't it?

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by twobums

A lower standard of living will be the new normal for the middle class ~ an economist told me once that an upside down wineglass represents our country. The part that holds wine is the lower class, the thin stem is the middle class and the base is the upper class.

Think about it, kinda' scary, isn't it?

If it's upside down, doesn't that also mean it's empty?